New York Giants vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction 12/22/24

New York Giants vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction 12/22/24 NFL Pick

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New York Giants vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
N.Y. Giants Line: 9.5
Atlanta Falcons Line: -9.5
Total: 42.0
TV: NBC

 

On Sunday 12/22 the New York Giants will take on the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.   This game features a match-up between the NFC East vs NFC South.  The NFC East is the #3 ranked conference in the NFL with a 51.8% winning percentage while the NFC South is the #7 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 41.1%.  The 2-12 Giants are ranked #4 in the NFC East and the 7-7 Falcons are ranked #2 in the NFC South.

Last Week’s Re-Cap

Last week the Giants lost against the Ravens 14 to 35 in which they allowed the Ravens to gain a total of 445 yards of offense. The Giants were outscored by 21 while being out gained by the Ravens by 209 yards and we not able to get a turnover from the Ravens.

Last week the Falcons came out with the victory against the Raiders but winning 15 to 9 over the struggling Raiders was not much to feel better about.  The Raiders gained 249 yards of total offense and had 2 more turnovers than the Raiders.

Can the Giants Win on Sunday?

Skill Position Impact 

The Giants are going with Tim Boyle this week which is now the 4th QB they have started this season and has them getting pretty far down the depth chart which does not bode well for the Giants chances in this game.

The Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. who has been one of the bright spots this season is the #28 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 49.6 yards per game and 4.6 yards per rush attempt while scoring 5 TD’s and having 4 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 48.3% which is 3.8% less than the league average for this statistic.

The Giants tight end 1 Daniel Bellinger is the #242 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 0.8 receptions per game while averaging 10.1 yards per reception and he does not have a TD this season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 84.6% which is 19.8% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 69.2% is 23.9% more than the league average for these statistics.

Wide receiver 1 for the Giants is Malik Nabers who is ranked #5 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 7.5 receptions per game with a 10 yards per catch average to go along with 4 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 64.3% which is 3.2% above league average and a receiving success rate of 50.7% which is 0.9% less than the league average for wide receivers in this statistical category.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Giants

The Giants offense has scored 208 points this season which is 35.2% less than the NFL average and have 19 turnovers which is an average of 1.4 turnovers per game. The Giants offensive per drive statistics show that 27.2% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 11.9% of drives end with a turnover. The Giants average 10.8 offensive drives per game and they average 6.1 plays, 27.5 yards, starting field position on their Own 29.7 yard line, and result in 1.37 points per drive. We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Giants have scored 16 red zone TD’s on 38 red zone opportunities which is 38.9% lower and 17.2% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Giants

The defense for Giants has allowed 328 points in 2024 which is 2.2% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 11 turnovers which is an average of 0.8 turnovers per game which is 33.3% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Giants is allowing 143.7 rush yards per game and 14 rushing TD’s which is 20.7% higher and 4.5% higher than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Giants pass defense is allowing 200.4 passing yards per game, 19 TD’s, and 2 INT’s which compared to league averages are 7.8% above, 6.4% above, 80.2% below league averages respectively for passing defense. A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Giants defense blitzes at 27.5% with a QB hurry rate of 7.5%, a QB knockdown rate of 8.3% and a QB pressure rate of 23.4%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Giants

  • Giants RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game at Atlanta, Dan Salomone of the Giants’ official site reports.
  • Giants LB Brian Burns (ankle) is listed as questionable for this week’s game but Giants head coach Brian Daboll said Thursday that Burns will not practice but is expected to be available for Sunday’s road matchup against the Falcons, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports.
  • Giants CB Deonte Banks is listed as questionable for this week’s due to a ribs injury and was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice, Patricia Traina of SI.com reports.
  • Giants S Tyler Nubin is on Injured Reserve and underwent surgery Monday to repair the ankle injury he suffered in the Giants’ Week 14 loss to the Saints, Art Stapleton of The Bergen Record reports.

There are 20 players on the Giants injury report for this week which is 23.5% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries.

Player Props:

  • Malik Nabers has recorded 64+ receiving yards in each of the Giants last 4 games.
  • Tyrone Tracey has scored a touchdown in the Giants last 3 road games

Fantasy Highlight:

  • N/A 

Can the Falcons Win on Sunday?

Skill Position Impact

The Falcons have turned the page on the Kirk Cousins experiment and will start rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. this week.  Everyone roasted the Falcons for taking Penix Jr. early in the draft since they just spent big on Cousins but here the Falcons are already looking to the proven winner from the University of Washington.

The Falcons running back Bijan Robinson is the #5 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 78.7 yards per game and 4.6 yards per rush attempt to go along with 8 TD’s and 0 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 56.5% which is 12.6% more than the league average for this statistic.

The Falcons tight end 1 Kyle Pitts is the #82 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 2.9 receptions per game while averaging 13.4 yards per reception to go along with 3 TD’s and 0 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 62.5% which is 11.5% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 40.6% is 27.3% less than the league average for these statistics.

For the Falcons at wide receiver 1 is Drake London who is ranked #11 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 5.6 catches per game and 11.8 yards per reception to go with 7 TD’s and 0 fumbles on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 65.5% which is 5.2% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 58.8% which is 14.9% more than the wide receiver league averages.

At wide receiver 2 the Falcons have Darnell Mooney.  He is ranked at #34 on the WR\TE’s ranks this week and averages 4.1 receptions per game and 15.3 yards per reception with season totals of 5 TD’s and 0 fumbles. He has a catch success rate of 60% which is 5.9% below league average and a receiving success rate of 51.6% which is 2% less than the WR league averages in the advanced receiving metrics.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Falcons 

The offense for the Falcons has scored 293 points so far this year which is 8.7% less than the NFL average and they have 21 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.5 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Falcons show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 37.6% of their drives whereas 14.2% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Falcons offensive per drive averages are 10.1 drives per game with an average of 6.4 plays, 35.5 yards, starting field position on the Falcons Own 28.9 yard line, and average 1.95 points per drive. When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical and the Falcons have scored 20 red zone TD’s on 41 attempts which is 23.6% lower and 10.7% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Falcons

The Falcons defense has allowed 342 points so far this year which is 6.5% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 14 turnovers for an average of 1 turnovers per game which is 16.7% less than the rest of the league. The Falcons rush defense is giving up 116.8 rush yards per game to go along with 7 rushing TD’s which is respectively 1.9% lower and 47.8% lower than rush defense averages across the league. The pass defense for the Falcons is allowing 225.9 pass yards per game, 27 passing TD’s, and 9 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 3.9% below, 33% below, 10.9% below league averages respectively for pass defense. The Falcons advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 21.2%, QB hurry rate of 8.2%, QB knockdown rate of 8.1% and QB pressure rate of 19.8%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Falcons

  • Falcons LB Lorenzo Carter (groin) is questionable for Sunday’s outing against the Giants, D. Orlando Ledbetter of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
  • Falcons WR Casey Washington (concussion) is out for Sunday’s outing against the Giants, D. Orlando Ledbetter of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
  • Falcons WR KhaDarel Hodge (ribs) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Giants, D. Orlando Ledbetter of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
  • Falcons PK Younghoe Koo is on Injured Reserve after the kicker was believed to have aggravated a right hip injury in Monday’s 15-9 win over the Raiders, Terrin Waack of the Falcons’ official site reports.
  • Falcons LB Troy Andersen (knee) was placed on injured reserve Monday.

The Falcons have 14 players on their injury report which is 13.5% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 100% more than the Giants.

Player Props:

  • Bijan Robinson has recorded 92+ rushing yards in each of the Falcons last 3 games
  • Kaden Elliss has recorded 1+ sacks in each of the Falcons last 3 games

Fantasy Highlight:

  • N/A

Mindy’s Pick: Under 42

Overall team efficiency stats have the Giants ranked #29 while the Falcons come in ranked #20 in this week’s ranking list and now the Giants are starting their 4th QB and the Falcons are starting a Rookie.  Both of these teams are 5-9-0 on Over\Under in 2024 so far and the under has come in 64.3% of the time.  The best bet pick for this match-up is on the total and is the Under 42 points.  My score projections for the total of this game is 35.89 so this pick has a variance of 6.11 points.

 

If you enjoyed this article, check out my prediction between the Browns & the Bengals here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/21/cleveland-browns-vs-cincinnati-bengals-prediction-12-22-24-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!