New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills Prediction 12/22/24 NFL

New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills Prediction 12/22/24 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills Prediction

Game Time: 4:25 PM EST
New England Patriots Line: 14.0
Buffalo Bills Line: -14.0
Total: 46.5
TV: CBS

 

New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills Prediction.  On Sunday 12/22 the New England Patriots will take on the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 15 °F with a 1.1 mph wind and 0% chance of rain. This game features a conference match-up of two AFC East teams.  The AFC East is the #6 ranked conference in the NFL with a 42.9% Win-Loss percentage.  The 3-11 Patriots are ranked #4 in the AFC East and the 11-3 Bills are ranked #1.

Last Week’s Re-Cap

Last week the Patriots lost to the Cardinals 17 to 30 where they allowed the Cardinals to gain a total of 395 yards of offense. The Patriots were outscored by 13 and were out gained by the Cardinals by 84 yards and had 1 more turnover.

Last week the Bills came out with the hard-fought victory against the Lions 48 to 42 but they did have a rough showing on defense allowing the Lions to gain 521 yards of total offense. The Bills managed to win by 6 and out gained the Lions but by just 38 yards and had 1 fewer turnover.

What can the Patriots do to slow down the Bills on Sunday?

Skill Position Impact New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills Prediction

The Patriots will go with Drake Maye who had a crash course in the reality of the NFL and has just a  2-7 record as starting quarterback this season.  Maye is ranked #30 for QB’s this week and has completed 191 passes on 279 attempts for an average of 189.8 yards per game and a completion percentage of 68.5% with 12 TD’s and 9 INT’s. His QBR is 0.1% below the league average and he does not have any fourth quarter comebacks or game winning drives this season.

The Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson is the #15 ranked RB this week and is averaging 56.9 yards per game and 3.8 yards per rush attempt while scoring 6 TD’s and having 6 fumbles. 

The Patriots tight end 1 Hunter Henry is the #28 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 4.4 receptions per game while averaging 10.2 yards per reception to go along with 1 TD. The advanced receiving stats put receiving success rate of 58.6% is 5% more than the league average for these statistics.

Wide receiver 1 for the Patriots is Kendrick Bourne who is ranked #171 for WR\TE’s this week.  He only averages 2.4 receptions per game with a 11.5 yards per catch average to go along with just 1 TD on the season.  These are not the stats you want to see in your #1 wide receiver.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Patriots

The Patriots offense has scored just 238 points this season which is 25.9% below the NFL average and have 18 turnovers which is an average of 1.3 turnovers per game. The Patriots offensive per drive statistics show that 31.1% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 12.2% of drives end with a turnover. The Patriots average 10.6 offensive drives per game and they average 5.9 plays, 27.7 yards, starting field position on their Own 29.9 yard line, and result in 1.55 points per drive. We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Patriots have scored only 19 red zone TD’s on 41 red zone opportunities which is 27.4% lower and 10.7% lower than league averages respectively and this makes winning real tough.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Patriots

The defense for Patriots has allowed 337 points so far in 2024 which is 5% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 11 turnovers which is an average of 0.8 turnovers per game which is 33.3% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Patriots is allowing 127.4 rush yards per game and 13 rushing TD’s which is 7% higher and 3% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Patriots pass defense is allowing 216.7 passing yards per game, 22 TD’s, and 6 INT’s which compared to league averages are 0.3% above, 8.4% below, 40.6% below league averages respectively for passing defense.  The lack of interceptions has only added to the Patriots struggles as they could use some short fields for their young offense.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Patriots

  • Patriots CB Marcus Jones (hip) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Bills.
  • Patriots RB JaMycal Hasty (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Bills.
  • Patriots S Kyle Dugger is listed as questionable for this week’s game as Dugger (ankle/illness) has been a limited participant in practice.
  • Patriots DT Christian Barmore (illness) has been placed on the reserve/non-football illness list.

There are 15 players on the Patriots injury report for this week which is 7.4% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries and is 67.8% more than the Bills.

Player Props

  • Austin Hooper has recorded 35+ receiving yards in his last 5 games
  • Kendrick Bourne has recorded 30+ receiving yards in his last 5 games
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 24+ receiving yards in his last 4 games vs the Bills

Will anything slow down the Bills on Sunday?

Skill Position Impact New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills Prediction

The Bills have the I-do-everything QB Josh Allen who is the main reason they are 11-3 this season.  Allen is ranked #9 on the QB Rankings for this week and that is mostly because he probably will not have to do much to beat the Patriots.  He has completed 275 passes on 427 attempts and is averaging 242.5 yards per game with a completion percentage of 64.4% with 25 TD’s and only 5 INT’s. His QBR is 34.9% above the league average and he has played so well that he hasn’t even had to have fourth quarter comebacks but he has had 2 game winning drives this season.

The Bills running back James Cook is the #22 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 63.7 yards per game and 4.8 yards per rush attempt to go along with 13 TD’s. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 52% which is 3.6% more than the league average for this statistic.

The Bills tight end 1 Dalton Kincaid is the #93 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.5 receptions per game while averaging 10.8 yards per reception to go along with 2 TD’s and 1 fumble for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 57.6% which is 18.5% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 53% is 5.1% less than the league average for these statistics.

For the Bills at wide receiver 1 is Amari Cooper who is ranked #85 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 3.3 catches per game and 12 yards per reception to go with 3 TD’s on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 50% which is 19.7% below league average combined with a receiving success rate of 40% which is 21.8% less than the WR league averages.

At wide receiver 2 the Bills haven’t gotten a lot out of rookie Keon Coleman.  He is ranked #165 on the WR\TE’s rankings for this week and averages 2.3 receptions per game with 20.9 yards per reception with a season total of 3 TD’s. He has a catch success rate of 60.5% which is 5.1% below league average for advanced receiving metrics.  

Overall Offense Analysis for the Bills

The offense for the Bills has scored 445 points this year which way above the NFL average at 38.6% and they have only 7 turnovers which is an average of 0.5 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Bills show they are scoring either a FG or touchdown in 51.7% of their drives compared to 4.9% of drives end with a turnover. The Bills offensive per drive averages are 10.2 drives per game averaging of 6.1 plays, 36.3 yards, starting field position on the Bills Own 33.1 yard line, and average 3.03 points per drive. When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is the king and the Bills have scored 42 red zone TD’s on 61 attempts which is 60.4% higher and 32.9% higher respectively than NFL red zone averages making them the “King of the Red Zone”.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Bills

The Bills defense has allowed 310 points so far this year which is 3.4% less than the league average for points allowed while creating 25 turnovers for an average of 1.8 turnovers per game which is 50% more than the rest of the league. The Bills rush defense is giving up 117.7 rush yards per game to go along with 11 rushing TD’s which is respectively 1.1% lower and 17.9% lower than rush defense averages across the league. The pass defense for the Bills is allowing 227.8 pass yards per game, 23 passing TD’s, and 13 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 4.8% below, 13.3% below, 28.7% above league averages respectively for pass defense. The Bills advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 17.7%, QB hurry rate of 7.7%, QB knockdown rate of 9.8% and QB pressure rate of 22.6%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Bills

  • Bills S Taylor Rapp (neck/shoulder) will be limited in Friday’s practice and is questionable for this weekend’s outing against New England, Maddy Glab of the Bills’ official site reports.
  • Bills WR Curtis Samuel (rib) will be limited in Friday’s practice and listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Patriots, Alec White of the Bills’ official site reports.
  • Bills LB Matt Milano (biceps/groin) will be a limited participant in the Bills’ final practice of the week and is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Patriots, Maddy Glab of the Bills’ official site reports.
  • Bills S Damar Hamlin (ribs) will be limited in Friday’s practice and is questionable for this weekend’s matchup against the Patriots, Maddy Glab of the Bills’ official site reports.
  • Bills CB Rasul Douglas (knee) will be a limited participant in Friday’s practice and is questionable for Buffalo’s Week 16 outing against the Patriots, Maddy Glab of the Bills’ official site reports.

The Bills have 10 players on their injury report which is 38.2% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 67.8% less than the Patriots.

Player Props

  • Josh Allen has recorded 235+ passing yards in his last 8 games
  • Khalil Shakir has recorded 50+ receiving yards in each of the Bills last 4 games
  • Amari Cooper has recorded 72+ receiving yards in his last 4 games

Mindy’s Pick: Patriots +14.0

New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills Prediction.  The Patriots are 5-8-1 ATS this season overall and cover at only 38.5% but have a MOV of -7.1 points.  The Patriots are bad this season, but they have been able to cover in the past.  The Patriots have covered in their last 11 road games vs the Bills.  It is hard to beat an NFL team by 14 points and in most of those games NFL teams don’t keep the pedal down to run up the score to cover the 2 touchdowns.  The pick for this match-up is the Patriots on the Spread at 14 with a variance of 3.13 points.

 

If you enjoyed the article, New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills Prediction, make sure you check out my Jaguars vs Raiders Prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/21/jacksonville-jaguars-vs-las-vegas-raiders-prediction-12-22-24-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!