Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks Prediction 12/22/24 NFL

Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction 12/22/24 NFL Pick

by

Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction

Game Time: 4:05 PM EST
Minnesota Vikings Line: -3.0
Seattle Seahawks Line: 3.0
Total: 42.5
TV: FOX

 

On Sunday 12/22 the Minnesota Vikings will take on the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 49 °F with 6.9 mph wind and 89% chance of rain…what rain in Seattle?  This game features a match-up of the NFC North vs NFC West.  The NFC North is the #1 ranked conference in the NFL with a 67.9% winning percentage while the NFC West is the #3 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 51.8%.  The 12-2 Vikings are ranked #2 in the NFC North and the 8-6 Seahawks are ranked #2 in the NFC West.

Last Week’s Re-Cap

Last week the Vikings defeated the Bears 30 to 12 in which they allowed the Bears to gain a total of 284 yards of offense. The Vikings picked up the win by 18 while only out gaining the Bears by 45 yards and making it feel like the bears where never even in the game.

The Seahawks lost last week against the Packers 13 to 30 in a one-sided game where they allowed the Packers to gain 369 yards of total offense which was definitely disappointing for a Seahawks defense that had been playing much better of late. The Seahawks were outscored by 17, outgained by 161 yards, and had 1 more turnover than the Packers.

Can the Vikings beat the Seahawks on Sunday in Seattle?

Skill Position Impact 

The Vikings QB Sam Darnold has proved the doubters wrong so far this year and has done his best to turn the Vikings plan to give J.J. McCarthy the reins for the next decade into a very hard decision.  Darnold is ranked #6 for QB’s this week and has completed 288 passes on 426 attempts while averaging 252.1 yards per game with a completion percentage of 67.6% with 29 TD’s and 11 INT’s. His QBR is 2.4% above the league average and he has 2 fourth quarter comebacks and 4 game winning drives this season.

The Vikings running back Aaron Jones Sr. is the #12 ranked RB this week and is averaging 69.9 yards per game and 4.6 yards per rush attempt while scoring 5 TD’s and but he does have 5 fumbles. 

The Vikings tight end 1 T.J. Hockenson is the #120 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 4.6 receptions per game while averaging 11 yards per reception but he had failed to get in the endzone. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 74.4% which is 5.3% above league average and his receiving success rate of 60.5% is 8.4% more than the league.

Wide receiver 1 for the Vikings is Justin Jefferson who is ranked #10 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 5.9 receptions per game with a 15.2 yards per catch average to go along with 8 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 67.8% which is 8.9% above league average and a receiving success rate of 56.2% which is 9.8% more than the league average for wide receivers which supports his top 5 WR status.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Vikings

The Vikings offense has scored 369 points this season which is 15% more than the NFL average to go along with 20 turnovers which is an average of 1.4 turnovers per game. The Vikings offensive per drive statistics show that 42.3% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 12.2% of drives end with a turnover. The Vikings average 11.1 offensive drives per game, 5.7 plays per drive, 31.3 yards per drive, starting field position on their Own 31.0 yard line, and result in 2.24 points per drive. As for their Red Zone efficiency, the Vikings have scored 30 red zone TD’s on 51 red zone opportunities which is 14.6% higher and 11.1% higher than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Vikings

The defense for Vikings has allowed 252 points in 2024 which is 21.5% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 28 turnovers which is an average of 2 turnovers per game which is 66.7% more than the league average. The rush defense for the Vikings is allowing 89.1 rush yards per game and 7 rushing TD’s which is 25.2% lower and 47.8% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense. The Vikings pass defense is allowing 244.9 passing yards per game, 19 TD’s, and 20 INT’s which compared to league averages are 12.7% below, 6.4% above, 98% above league averages respectively for passing defense. The Vikings have really excelled opportunistic pass defense and are ranked #1 in interceptions in the NFL this season.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Vikings

  • Vikings S Harrison Smith is listed as questionable for this week and didn’t practice.

There are 9 players on the Vikings injury report for this week which is 44.4% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries and is 16.2% less than the Seahawks.

Player Props

  • Sam Darnold has recorded 231+ passing yards in each of the Vikings last 9 games
  • Aaron jones has recorded 95+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 9 road games
  • TJ Hockenson has recorded 27+ receiving yards in his last 18 appearances

Can the Seahawks find a way to Win on Sunday?

Skill Position Impact 

The Seahawks will go with Geno Smith who there was some concern about his playing status due to the knee injury he suffered last week but as of today Smith no longer has a injury designation.  Geno Smith is ranked #3 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 339 passes on 485 attempts for an average of 258.8 yards per game and a completion percentage of 69.9% with 14 TD’s and 13 INT’s. His QBR is 11.5% below the league average and he has 3 fourth quarter comebacks and 3 game winning drives this season.

The Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III looks like he is ready to return to the starting RB position and is the #30 ranked RB this week.  He is averaging 54.2 yards per game and 3.7 yards per rush attempt to go along with 7 TD’s and 1 fumble. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 44.1% which is 12.1% less than the league average and is not surprising with the struggles the Seahawks have had on the offensive line.

The Seahawks tight end 1 Noah Fant is the #103 ranked TE\WR this week and is averaging 3.3 receptions per game and averaging 9.6 yards per reception. The advanced receiving stats don’t look bad for Fant as his catch success rate at 76.6% is 8.4% above league average and his receiving success rate of 59.6% is 6.8% more than the league average but he has not had much of an impact on Seahawks winning games.

For the Seahawks at wide receiver 1 is DK Metcalf is ranked #33 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL and is averaging 4.8 catches per game and 14.7 yards per reception to go with 3 TD’s and 2 fumbles. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate that is 1.6% below league average and a receiving success rate that is 5.4% less than the wide receiver league averages.  

Overall Offense Analysis for the Seahawks

The Seahawks offense has scored 315 points this year which is 1.9% less than the NFL average and they have 21 turnovers which is an average of 1.5 turnovers per game. The per drive offensive stats show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 35.3% of their drives while 10% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Seahawks offensive averages 10.7 drives per game with those drives averaging 5.9 plays, 30.5 yards, starting field position on the Seahawks Own 28.7 yard line, and 1.89 points per drive. When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is often the difference between an average season and a great season and the Seahawks are a prime example of this.  They have scored 19 red zone TD’s on 36 attempts which is 27.4% lower and 21.6% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages and they have left a lot of points on the table.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Seahawks

The Seahawks defense has allowed 313 points so far this year which is 2.5% lower than the league average for points allowed while creating 16 turnovers for an average of 1.1 turnovers per game which is 8.3% lower than the rest of the league. The Seahawks rush defense is giving up 127.5 rush yards per game to go along with 11 rushing TD’s which is respectively 7.1% higher and 17.9% lower than rush defense averages. As for pass defense, the Seahawks are allowing 213.6 pass yards per game, 21 passing TD’s, and 11 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 1.7% above, 3.4% below, 8.9% above league averages respectively. The Seahawks advanced team metrics show they blitz at 23.4%, QB hurry rate of 8%, QB knockdown rate of 11.8% and QB pressure rate of 24.7%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Seahawks

  • Seahawks LB Ernest Jones IV is listed as questionable this week but has been a limited practice participant so there is hope that he will be able to play.
  • Seahawks C Olu Oluwatimi is listed as questionable this and Head coach Mike Macdonald stated Oluwatimi suffered a knee and quadriceps injury in Sunday’s loss to the Packers, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.

The Seahawks have 11 players on their injury report which is 32.1% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 16.2% more than the Vikings.

Player Props:

  • Geno Smith has recorded 206+ passing yards in his last 13 games
  • Jaxson Smith-Njigba has recorded 74+ receiving yards in each of his last 6 games
  • DK Metcalf has scored a touchdown in his last 2 games vs the Vikings

Mindy’s Pick: Vikings -3

Overall comparison of the offenses in this match-up shows that the Vikings have the advantage in 14 of 25 offensive statistics compared to the Seahawks offense. Overall team efficiency stats have the Vikings ranked #2 while the Seahawks come in ranked #16 in this week’s ranking list and the Vikings have performed better in 8 out of 8 overall efficiencies and rankings.  The Vikings are 9-4-1 ATS this season overall and cover at 69.2% with a MOV of 8.4 points.  The pick for this match-up is the Vikings on the Spread at -3 with a variance of 1.73 points.

 

If y0u enjoyed the article, make sure you check out my Patriots vs Bills prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/21/new-england-patriots-v-buffalo-bills/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!