Los Angeles Rams vs New York Jets Pick 12/22/24 NFL

Los Angeles Rams vs New York Jets Prediction 12/22/24 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams vs New York Jets Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
Los Angeles Rams Line: -3.0
N.Y. Jets Line: 3.0
Total: 46.0
TV: CBS

 

On Sunday 12/22 the L.A. Rams will take on the N.Y. Jets at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 25.1 °F with 11.4 mph wind and 0 % chance of rain.  This game features a match-up of the NFC West who is the #3 ranked conference in the NFL with a 51.8% winning percentage against the AFC East which is the #6 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 42.9%.  The 8-6 Rams are ranked #1 in the NFC West and the 4-10 Jets are ranked #3 in the AFC East.

Last Week’s Re-Cap

Last week the Rams defeated the 49ers in a snoozefest (sorry Rams and 49er fans) 12 to 6 in which they held the 49ers to only 191 yards of total offense. The Rams picked up the win by 6 while out gaining the 49ers by 111 yards with 1 fewer turnover.

Last week the Jets came out with the victory against the Jaguars 32 to 25 in a tight game that most would have expected the Jets to dominate.  The Jets defense struggled with the previously struggling Jaguar offense and allowed the Jaguars to gain 421 yards of total offense. The Jets won by 7 even with being out gained by the Jaguars by 21 yards but they did have 2 less turnovers.

Can the Rams Win on Sunday?

Skill Position Impact 

The Rams QB Matthew Stafford is ranked #8 for QB’s this week and he has completed 309 passes on 466 attempts and has averaged 247.4 yards per game with a completion percentage of 66.3% with 19 TD’s and 7 INT’s. His QBR is 13.1% above the league average and he has 2 fourth quarter comebacks and 4 game winning drives this season.

The Rams running back Kyren Williams is the #2 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 80.1 yards per game and 4 yards per rush attempt while scoring 12 TD’s and having 5 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 50% which is 0.4% less than the league average for this statistic.

The Rams have one of the top duos of wide receivers in the NFL with WR 1 Cooper Kupp who is ranked #27 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 6.3 receptions per game with a 10.4 yards per catch average to go along with 6 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season.  Then WR2 is second year star Puka Nacua who is ranked as the #29 WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 6.8 receptions per game with a 13.2 yards per catch average with 3 TD’s on the year. 

Overall Offense Analysis for the Rams

The Rams offense has scored 310 points this season which is 3.4% less than the NFL average and have 12 turnovers which is an average of 0.9 turnovers per game. The Rams offensive per drive statistics show that 37.6% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 8.5% of drives end with a turnover. The Rams average 10.1 offensive drives per game and they average 6.4 plays, 33.5 yards, starting field position on their Own 29.2 yard line, and result in 2.04 points per drive. In the Red Zone, the Rams have an efficiency 6.9% higher and 13.3% higher than league averages for and TD’s scored at 28 on 52 red zone opportunities.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Rams

The defense for Rams has allowed 338 points this year which is 5.3% higher than the NFL average while causing 16 turnovers which is an average of 1.1 turnovers per game which is 8.3% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Rams is allowing 135.4 rush yards per game and 13 rushing TD’s which is 13.7% higher and 3% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The pass defense for the Rams allows 218.1 passing yards per game, 23 TD’s, and 11 INT’s which compared to league averages is 0.3% below, 13.3% below, 8.9% above league averages respectively for passing defense.  The advanced defense stats show that the Rams blitz at 23.6%, have a QB hurry rate of 10.1%, QB knockdown rate of 7.3%, and QB pressure rate of 22.9%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Rams

  • Rams TE Tyler Higbee is listed as questionable for this week’s game due to an illness, Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic reports.
  • Rams LB Nick Hampton (pectoral) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday.

There are 9 players on the Rams injury report for this week which is 44.4% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries.

Player Props:

  • Cooper Cupp has recorded 95+ receiving yards in his last 7 games vs the AFC
  • Matthew Stafford has not thrown an interception in his last 5 games
  • Puka Nacua has recorded 97+ receiving yards in the Rams last 6 games

Can the Jets Win on Sunday?

Skill Position Impact 

The Jets QB is Aaron Rodgers who is ranked #11 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 305 passes on 488 attempts and has averaged 232.5 yards per game with a completion percentage of 62.5% with 23 TD’s and 8 INT’s. His QBR is 8.6% below the league average and he has 2 fourth quarter comebacks and 3 game winning drives this season.

The Jets running back Breece Hall is the #21 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 55.5 yards per game and 4.2 yards per rush attempt to go along with 5 TD’s and 6 fumbles. 

The Jets tight end 1 Tyler Conklin is the #102 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 2.8 receptions per game while averaging 8.8 yards per reception to go along with 2 TD’s for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his receiving success rate of 48.1% is 13.8% less than the league average for these statistics.

For the Jets they have assembled a very skilled WR core with wide receiver 1 is Davante Adams who is ranked #24 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 6.1 catches per game and 12.8 yards per reception to go with 6 TD’s on the season.  Then at wide receiver 2 the Jets have Garrett Wilson who is ranked at #9 on the WR\TE’s ranks this week and averages 6 receptions per game and 11.1 yards per reception with season totals of 6 TD’s and 1 fumble.   

Overall Offense Analysis for the Jets

The offense for the Jets has scored 283 points so far this year which is 11.8% less than the NFL average and they have 13 turnovers on offense for an average of 0.9 turnovers per game.  The offense per drive stats for the Jets show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 34.7% of their drives whereas 9% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Jets offensive per drive averages are 10.3 drives per game with an average of 5.9 plays, 29.8 yards, starting field position on the Jets Own 29.2 yard line, and average 1.93 points per drive.  When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Jets have scored 24 red zone TD’s on 45 attempts which is 8.4% lower and 2% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages. 

Overall Defense Analysis for the Jets

The Jets defense has allowed 325 points so far this year which is 1.2% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 12 turnovers for an average of 0.9 turnovers per game which is 25% less than the rest of the league. The Jets rush defense is giving up 121.1 rush yards per game to go along with 18 rushing TD’s which is respectively 1.7% higher and 34.3% higher than rush defense averages across the league. The pass defense for the Jets is allowing 193.9 pass yards per game, 13 passing TD’s, and 4 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 10.8% above, 36% above, 60.4% below league averages respectively for pass defense. The Jets advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 25.5%, QB hurry rate of 9.8%, QB knockdown rate of 7.2% and QB pressure rate of 23.8%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Jets

  • Jets RB Isaiah Davis (back) is listed as questionable for this week’s game and was limited at practice this week.
  • Jets RB Braelon Allen (back) is listed as questionable for this week’s game and was limited at practice this week.
  • Jets DT Leki Fotu is on Injured Reserve and the Jets opened the 21-day practice window for Fotu (knee) to return from injured reserve Wednesday.
  • Jets CB Michael Carter II (back) is listed as questionable for this week’s game and was limited at practice this week.
  • Jets DT Quinnen Williams (hamstring) is listed as questionable for this week’s game and was limited at practice this week.

The Jets have 20 players on the team’s injury report, which is 23.5% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 100% more than the Rams.

Player Props:

  • Aaron Rodgers has recorded 229+ passing yards in each of his last 8 appearances vs the Rams
  • Davante Adams has recorded 66+ receiving yards in his last 4 games
  • Allen Lazard has scored a touchdown in his last 4 games as the underdog

Mindy’s Pick: Rams Moneyline -165

Overall comparison of the offenses in this match-up shows that the Rams have the have the advantage in 18 of 25 offensive statistics compared to the Jets offense.  When it comes to analyzing the impact of team efficiency stats, this also favors the Rams as they are ranked #18 while the Jets come in ranked #22 in this week’s rankings.  As the favorite, the Rams are 4-1-0 on the Moneyline for the season and cover at an unbelievable 80% with a MOV of 3.2 points meanwhile as the underdog, the Jets are 0-4-0 with a MOV of -7 points.  The pick for this match-up is the Rams on the Moneyline at -165 with a projected score of Rams 21.5 and the Jets 19.5.

 

If you enjoyed this article, make sure you check out my Eagles vs Commanders prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/21/philadelphia-eagles-vs-washington-commanders-prediction-12-22-24-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!