Las Vegas Raiders vs New Orleans Saints prediction 12-29-24

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction 12/22/24 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction

Game Time: 4:25 PM EST
Jacksonville Jaguars Line: 1.5
Las Vegas Raiders Line: -1.5
Total: 40.0
TV: CBS

 

On Sunday 12/22 the Jacksonville Jaguars will take on the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.   This game features a match-up of the AFC South vs AFC West.  The AFC South is the #8 ranked conference in the NFL with a 37.5% winning percentage while the AFC West is the #2 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 56.8%.  The 3-11 Jaguars are ranked #3 in the AFC South and the 2-12 Raiders are ranked #4 in the AFC West.

Last Week’s Re-Cap

Last week the Jaguars lost against the Jets 25 to 32 in which they allowed the Jets to gain a total of 400 yards of offense. The Jaguars were outscored by 7 while out gaining the Jets by 21 yards but had 2 more costly turnovers.

Last week the Raiders lost against the Falcons 9 to 15 but held the Falcons in check for only 261 yards of total offense. The Raiders were outscored by 6 and were only out gained by the Falcons by 12 yards but having 2 more turnovers against the Falcons doesn’t help you win games.

What can the Jaguars do to win this toilet bowl against the Raiders on Sunday?

Skill Position Impact 

The Jaguars will go with Mac Jones at QB who is filling in for the injured Trevor Lawrence but hasn’t had much success with record of only 1-3 as starting quarterback this season.  Jones is ranked #37 on QB’s Rankings this week and his stat line shows he has completed 111 passes on 169 attempts and averaged 146.6 yards per game with a completion percentage of 65.7% with 4 TD’s and 7 INT’s. His QBR is 41.8% below the league average and he has the 1 fourth quarter comebacks and game winning drive.

The Jaguars running back Tank Bigsby is the #33 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 49.5 yards per game and 4.9 yards per rush attempt while scoring 5 TD’s but having 3 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 47.3% which is 5.8% less than the league average for RB’s.

The Jaguars tight end 1 Luke Farrell is also taking over after Even Ingram was injured and is the #266 ranked TE\WR this week and is averaging only 0.6 receptions per game and 6.1 yards per reception to go along with no TD’s on the season.

Wide receiver 1 for the Jaguars is Brian Thomas Jr. who put being a rookie in her rearview mirror and made us forget he hasn’t been playing for years now.  He is ranked #26 for WR\TE’s this week and averages 4.6 receptions per game with a 14.9 yards per catch average to go along with 8 TD’s on the season. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 64.6% which is 3.7% above league average and a receiving success rate of 56.6% which is 10.6% more than the league average for all wide receivers.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Jaguars

The Jaguars offense has scored 263 points this season which is 18.1% less than the NFL average and have 21 turnovers which is an average of 1.5 turnovers per game and well over league averages. The Jaguars offensive per drive statistics show that 33.3% of drives end in either a score while 13.9% of drives end with a turnover. The Jaguars average 10.3 offensive drives per game and average 5.8 plays, 29.7 yards, starting field position on their Own 27.4 yard line, and result in 1.72 points per drive. We all know the Red Zone efficiency is the key to victory and the Jaguars have scored only 24 red zone TD’s on 44 RZ opportunities which is 8.4% and 4.2% lower than NFL averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Jaguars

The defense for Jaguars has allowed 377 points this season which is 17.4% higher than the NFL average and only have 8 turnovers for an average of 0.6 turnovers per game which is 50% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Jaguars is allowing 132.1 rush yards per game and 16 rushing TD’s which is 11% higher and 19.4% higher than league averages respectively for rush defense. The Jaguars pass defense is allowing 264.3 passing yards per game, 27 TD’s, and 5 INT’s which compared to league averages are 21.6% below, 33% below, 50.5% below league averages respectively for passing defense. 

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Jaguars

  • Jaguars TE Brenton Strange is listed as questionable for this week’s game and the latest update is Strange (shoulder) has remained limited at practice.
  • Jaguars TE Evan Engram is on Injured Reserve and Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said Engram underwent surgery Monday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com reports.
  • Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is on Injured Reserve and Jaguars HC Doug Pederson indicated that Lawrence did undergo surgery Tuesday to repair the AC joint sprain in his left shoulder, Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com reports.

There are 12 players on the Jaguars injury report for this week which is 25.9% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries and is 14.8% less than the Raiders.

Player Props

  • Brian Thomas Jr has scored a touchdown in his last 6 games
  • Travis Etienne has recorded 40+ rushing yards in his last 22 appearances vs the AFC
  • Tank Bigsby has scored at least one touchdown in his last 5 games

Will anything click for the Raiders against the Jaguars this Sunday?

Skill Position Impact 

The Raiders are starting Aidan O’Connell at QB who has a record of 0-4 as a starter this season.  O’Connell is ranked #40 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 86 passes on 136 attempts and has averaged 149.8 yards per game with a completion percentage of 63.2% with 4 TD’s and 3 INT’s. Last I checked 149.8 yards per game is only good if you are a RB or WR not an NFL starting quarterback.  O’Connell’s QBR is 30.9% below the league average and he has no fourth quarter comebacks or game winning drives.

The Raiders running back Alexander Mattison is the #39 ranked RB this week and only that high because the Jaguars defense is not-so-good.  Mattison is averaging only 31 yards per game and 3.3 yards per rush attempt with 3 TD’s and 1 fumble. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 36.5% which is 27.3% less than the league average.

The Raiders tight end 1 Brock Bowers has been the biggest success the Raiders have had in the draft on offense in a long time.  He is the #4 ranked TE\WR this week and is averaging 6.4 receptions per game and averaging 10.8 yards per reception to go along with 4 TD’s on the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 72.6% which is 2.8% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 59.7% is 6.9% more than the league average.

For the Raiders at wide receiver 1 is Terrace Marshall Jr. who is ranked #375 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  Yes, you read that right #375.  Guess we can’t blame the Raider QB’s for all the Raiders struggles if the best wide receiver you have is #375 on the list.  Marshal Jr. averages 0.5 catches per game and 6.5 yards per reception and 0 TD’s on the season. I feel like my Goldendoodle could have more than .5 receptions a game.  

Overall Offense Analysis for the Raiders

The offense for the Raiders has scored 245 points so far this year which is 23.7% less than the NFL average and they have 28 turnovers which is an average of 2 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Raiders show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 31.2% of their drives whereas 17.8% of drives end with a fumble or interception.  This ratio is what nightmares are made of if your are a offensive coach for the Raiders. The offensive per drive averages are 11.2 drives per game, 5.8 plays, 26.5 yards, starting field position on the Raiders Own 29.0 yard line, and average 1.52 points per drive. When it comes to winning in the NFL Red Zone efficiency is a strong marker for success and the Raiders have scored only 17 red zone TD’s on 36 attempts which is 35.1% lower and 21.6% lower respectively and is near the bottom of all NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Raiders

The Raiders defense has allowed 376 points so far this year which is 17.1% more than the league average for points allowed while creating only 9 turnovers for an average of 0.6 turnovers per game and that is 50% less than the rest of the league. The Raiders rush defense is giving up 121.2 rush yards per game and 12 rushing TD’s which is respectively 1.8% higher and 10.4% lower than rush defense averages across the league. The pass defense for the Raiders is allowing 208.3 pass yards per game, 25 passing TD’s, and 8 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 4.2% above, 23.2% below, 20.8% below league averages respectively for pass defense.  And all this is going to be hard to improve when the Raiders announced Wednesday their best defensive playmaker Maxx Crosby was placed in IR.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Raiders

  • Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers is listed as questionable for this week’s game and Meyers (ankle) remained limited at practice this week.
  • Raiders DE Maxx Crosby (ankle) was placed on its injured reserve list Wednesday.
  • Raiders RB Sincere McCormick is placed on Wednesday.
  • Raiders CB Sam Webb is listed as questionable for this week’s game.

The Raiders have 15 players on their injury report which is 7.4% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 14.8% more than the Jaguars.

Player Props

  • Aidan O’Connell has recorded 227+ passing yards in each of his last 4 home games
  • Jakobi Meyers has recorded 59+ receiving yards in his last 4 games
  • Brock Bowers has scored a touchdown in his last 4 games vs the AFC

Mindy’s Pick: Jaguars +1.5

Well, do we really need to make a pick on this one?  Save your money!!!  But if you read this far, I don’t want to let you down, and the best bet in this match-up is the Jaguars on the Spread at +1.5.  Modeling projects a variance of 2.86 points.  The Jaguars are 7-6-1 ATS this season overall and cover at 53.9% with a MOV of -8.1 points.  53.9% isn’t what we typically think as a great stat to support a pick, but you try to find a betting trend for either the Jaguars or Raiders this year above 50% for ML or spread it’s hard to find.  The Raiders have lost their last 10.  We have really come so far…I remember when the Raiders beat the Ravens.  Seems so last year!  These teams are not consistent and that doesn’t make predicting the outcome easy.  But we are hoping the Jaguars roar!

 

If you enjoyed this article, make sure you check out my 49ers vs Dolphins Prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/21/san-francisco-49ers-vs-miami-dolphins-prediction-12-22-24-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!