Grambling State vs Cincinnati Prediction 12/22/2024

Grambling State vs Cincinnati Preview

Grambling State (2-9, 0-6 on Road) heads to the Queen City to play No. 19 Cincinnati (8-1, 6-0 at Home) in a SWAC-Big East mixup on Sunday afternoon. The Tigers are 1-4 in their last 5 games, losing to Cal-Poly Pomona by 3 (82-79), beating Arkansas Baptist by 26 (82-56), and then losing at Pepperdine by 28 (85-57), SE Louisiana by 10 (75-65), and Delaware State by 13 (73-60). The Bearcats have gone 4-1 in their last 5, beating Georgia Tech by 23 (81-58), Alabama State by 18 (77-59), losing at Villanova by 8 (68-60), topping Howard by 17 (64-67), and beating city rivals Xavier by 3 in their last game (68-65). Cincinnati is priced at 50/1 odds to win the 2025 NCAA Basketball Tournament (DraftKings).

Grambling State Massive Underdog at Fifth Third Arena 

Grambling State (5-4-1 ATS, 4-6-0 O/U) has just 2 SU wins and they both came against very small schools, Southern-New Orleans (NAIA) and private Arkansas Baptist (NAIA). The Tigers (+6500 Moneyline) are led in scoring by G Antwan Burnett (12.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg), G Mikale Stevenson 11.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.0 apg), G Kintavious Dozier (10.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 2.7 apg), F Ernest Ross (7.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg), F James Flippin (7.2 ppg), G PJ Edwards (4.7 ppg), and F PJ Eason (3.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg). Grambling State averages 68.6 ppg (#336) while allowing 72.5 ppg, 33.6 rpg (#338), and 13.0 apg (Tied-#274) so you can see why they are usually Underdogs and why the Point Spreads in their games, especially early in the season, are so high.

Grambling State Betting Trends

• Grambling State is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games overall
• TheTigers are 1-3-0 ATS their last 4 games after covering 5 ATS straight
• The Over is 5-1-0 in Grambling State’s last 6 games
• The Tigers have been Underdogs in 7 of their last 8 games
• Grambling State went 18-15-0 ATS last 2023-24 NCAAB season (54.6%)

No. 19 Cincinnati on 7-1 Streak to the Under

Cincinnati (4-5-0 ATS, 2-7-0 O/U) has been a big Under team so far with the Bearcats playing 6 straight Unders this season before seeing an Over against Howard. Cincinnati has three players in double-digit scoring G Simas Lukosius (16.0 ppg, 3.3 RPG, 3.4 APG), G Jizzie James (12.3 ppg, 3.8 RPG, 5.1 APG), and F Dillon Mitchell (11.8 ppg, 7.4RPGg) and nice support from players like G Dan Skillings Jr. (9.7 ppg, 5.3 RPG, 305 APG) F Aziz Bandaogo (9.4 ppg, 5.3 RPG), G Day Day Thomas (7.0 ppg), F Arrinten Page (6.7 ppg, 3.4 RPG), and G Connor Hickman (6.3 ppg, 3.1 RPG). The Bearcats (-100,000 Moneyline) are averaging 80.4 ppg (#84) while allowing just 58.6 ppg (+21.8 Point Differential), 17.3 Assists Per Game (#38) and 38.3 Rebounds Per Game (Tied-#98). Cincinnati’s pressure defense is one reason this team plays in so many Unders and is ranked in the Top 25.

Cincinnati Betting Trends

• Cincinnati is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games overall
• The Under is 7-1-0 in the Bearcat’s last 8 games
• The Under is 3-1-0 in Cincy’s last 3 Home games 
• Cincy has given 36.5, 28.5, 27.5, 28.5, 28. and 8 points in its last 6 Home games.
• The Bearcats have been Favorites in all 9 games this season 

Grambling State vs Cincinnati Prediction

The Bearcats have laid huge lumber 5 times so far and gone 2-3 ATS. Against Howard they were 28-Point chalks and won by just 17; against Alcorn State Cincinnati were 28.5-Point Home Favorites and won by only 18; against Nicholls State, the Bearcats were 27.5-Point Favorites and won by 35; against Morehead State they were 28.5-Point Home Faves and won by just 27, failing to cover ATS by a bucket; and against Arkansas Pine Bluff, Cincinnati went off as massive 35.5-Point Favorites and won by 55 at Home in its first game of the new season. Here we see another enormous Point Spread in a Home game, so maybe looking at the Halftime line may be the better angle as the hosts could be up so big after 20 minutes that they won’t give a cat’s ass about playing hard in the final 20. But Grambling State is bad (Ken Pomeroy #302), so it might not even matter. This Grambling State vs Cincinnati NCAAB pick will back the Bearcats to win by 36 to 40. 

Kevin’s Pick: Cincinnati -29.5