Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears Prediction
| Game Time: | 1:00 PM EST |
| Detroit Lions Line: | -6.5 |
| Chicago Bears Line: | 6.5 |
| Total: | 48.0 |
| TV: | NBC |
On Sunday 12/22 the Detroit Lions will take on the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 29.9 °F with 12.8 mph wind and 0 % chance of rain. This game features a match-up of two NFC North teams. The NFC North is the #1 ranked conference in the NFL with a 67.9% Win-Loss percentage as a conference. The 12-2 Lions are ranked #1 in the NFC North and the 4-10 Bears are ranked #4.
Last Week’s Re-Cap
Last week the Lions lost against the Bills 42 to 48 in which they allowed the Bills to gain a total of 559 yards of offense. The Lions were outscored by 6 while being out gained by the Bills by 38 yards and having 1 more turnover.
Last week the Bears lost against the Vikings 12 to 30 while allowing the Vikings to gain 329 yards of total offense. The Bears were outscored by 18 while being out gained by the Vikings by 45 yards and not even having any turnovers against the Vikings.
Can the Lions Win on Sunday?
Skill Position Impact
The Lions have a QB Jared Goff is has been on a hot streak and is ranked #2 for QB’s this week. He has completed 314 passes on 440 attempts and has averaged 268.5 yards per game with a completion percentage of 71.4% with 30 TD’s and 10 INT’s. His QBR is 11.8% above the league average and he has 4 fourth quarter comebacks and 4 game winning drives this season.
The Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs is the #17 ranked RB this week and will be getting most of the workload due to David Montgomery’s injury last week. He is averaging 74.8 yards per game and 5.6 yards per rush attempt while scoring 11 TD’s and having 1 fumble. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 53.2% which is 6% more than the league average for this statistic.
The Lions tight end 1 Sam LaPorta is the #71 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.3 receptions per game while averaging 12.9 yards per reception to go along with 5 TD’s and 0 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 70.5% which is 0.2% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 55.7% is 0.2% less than the league average for these statistics.
Wide receiver 1 for the Lions is Amon-Ra St. Brown who is ranked #2 for WR\TE’s this week. He averages 6.8 receptions per game with a 11.1 yards per catch average to go along with 10 TD’s and only 1 fumble on the season. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 81.9% which is 31.5% above league average and a receiving success rate of 71.6% which is 39.9% more than the league average for wide receivers in this statistical category.
Overall Offense Analysis for the Lions
The Lions offense has scored 459 points this season which is 43% more than the NFL average and have 13 turnovers which is an average of 0.9 turnovers per game. The Lions offensive per drive statistics show that 50.3% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 8.6% of drives end with a turnover. The Lions average 10.8 offensive drives per game and they average 6.2 plays, 37.5 yards, starting field position on their Own 30.7 yard line, and result in 2.97 points per drive.
Overall Defense Analysis for the Lions
The defense for Lions has allowed 282 points in 2024 which is 12.1% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 20 turnovers which is an average of 1.4 turnovers per game which is 16.7% more than the league average. The rush defense for the Lions is allowing 101.3 rush yards per game and 16 rushing TD’s which is 14.9% lower and 19.4% higher than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Lions pass defense is allowing 234.5 passing yards per game, 13 TD’s, and 14 INT’s which compared to league averages are 7.9% below, 36% above, 38.6% above league averages respectively for passing defense.
Significant Injury Report Updates for the Lions
- Lions RB David Montgomery is listed as Out for this week’s game as of 2 days ago and Lions coach Dan Campbell said Friday that the team hasn’t made a decision about placing Montgomery (knee) on injured reserve, Eric Woodyard of ESPN.com reports.
- Lions CB Carlton Davis III is on Injured Reserve and will not play in this week’s game and Head coach Dan Campbell said he’s not feeling good about the chance of Davis (jaw) returning this season, including the playoffs, Justin Rogers of DetroitFootball.net reports.
- Lions LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin (neck) was designated to return from injured reserve Thursday and was a limited participant in practice.
- Lions S Brian Branch is listed as with a calf injury and was a limited participant in practice Thursday.
There are 20 players on the Lions injury report for this week which is 23.5% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries and is 190.8% less than the Bears.
Player Props:
- Jared Goff is facing the #4 defense against QB completions and the Bears are only allowing 9.14 completions per game. Goff is projected for 20.79 completions which is 2.71 completions under the current Passing Completions prop line of 23.5. Take the UNDER.
- Also for Goff, the Bears defense is ranked 7th lowest in Pass Attempts allowed per game at 30.21. The current Passing Attempts player prop line set at 33.5 and Goff is projected at only 30.82 which offers a 2.68 variance. Take the UNDER again.
Fantasy Highlight:
- Jared Goff is facing the #2 toughest defense in the NFL for total fantasy points in the Bears who are allowing only 14.8 points per game to opposing QB’s.
- Goff has been hot of late and is scoring 26.5 fantasy points per week over his last 5 games but the Bears defense rated as the #4 defense in fewest TD’s allowed to QBs so the TD points might be tough come by.
Can the Bears Win on Sunday?
Skill Position Impact
The Bears QB Caleb Williams is ranked #19 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 288 passes on 465 attempts and has averaged 209.8 yards per game with a completion percentage of 61.9% with 17 TD’s and 5 INT’s. His QBR is 18% below the league average and he has had 1 fourth quarter comeback and no game winning drives this season.
The Bears running back D’Andre Swift is the #13 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 58.6 yards per game and 3.9 yards per rush attempt to go along with 5 TD’s and 2 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 42.9% which is 14.5% less than the league average for this statistic.
The Bears tight end 1 Cole Kmet is the #70 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.1 receptions per game while averaging 10.7 yards per reception to go along with 3 TD’s and 0 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 84.3% which is 19.3% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 72.5% is 29.9% more than the league average for these statistics.
For the Bears at wide receiver 1 is DJ Moore who is ranked #12 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL. He averages 5.4 catches per game and 10 yards per reception to go with 5 TD’s and 0 fumbles on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 67.9% which is 9% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 47.3% which is 7.6% less than the wide receiver league averages.
Overall Offense Analysis for the Bears
The offense for the Bears has scored 266 points so far this year which is 17.1% less than the NFL average and they have 11 turnovers on offense for an average of 0.8 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Bears show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 31.1% of their drives whereas 6% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Bears offensive per drive averages are 10.8 drives per game with an average of 6 plays, 26.7 yards, starting field position on the Bears Own 29.8 yard line, and average 1.7 points per drive.
Overall Defense Analysis for the Bears
The Bears defense has allowed 308 points so far this year which is 4% less than the league average for points allowed while creating 21 turnovers for an average of 1.5 turnovers per game which is 25% more than the rest of the league. The pass defense for the Bears is allowing 217.8 pass yards per game, 14 passing TD’s, and 11 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 0.2% below, 31% above, 8.9% above league averages respectively for pass defense. The Bears rush defense is giving up 133.3 rush yards per game to go along with 17 rushing TD’s which is respectively 12% higher and 26.9% higher than rush defense averages across the league.
Significant Injury Report Updates for the Bears
- Bears C Ryan Bates (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday’s outing against the Lions.
- Bears RB Travis Homer (hamstring) is doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Lions.
- Bears DT Gervon Dexter Sr. (knee) was a limited participant in Friday’s practice and is questionable for this weekend’s matchup against Detroit.
- Bears CB Jaylon Johnson (illness) did not practice Friday and is questionable for Chicago’s Week 16 game against the Lions
The Bears have 15 players on their injury report which is 7.4% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 100% more than the Lions.
Player Props:
- Caleb Williams is facing the #26 defense in Passing Yards allowed per game and the Lions are allowing 249.43 passing yards per game. With the likelihood of the Bears needing to come from behind and the Lions pass defense that likes to give up a lot of passing yards, Williams is projected for 229.62 yards which is well over current Passing Yards prop line of 212.5. Take the OVER.
Fantasy Highlight:
- Caleb Willians is projected for 15.72 fantasy points this week. This is projected as below his average of 18.1 because the Lions are the #2 ranked defense in fewest passing TD’s allowed per game opposing QB’s.
Mindy’s Pick: Lions -6.5
Overall comparison in this match-up shows that the Lions have the have the advantage in 22 of 26 offensive statistics and 15 of 26 defensive categories compared to the Bears. Analysis of overall, offense, defense, and special teams efficiencies and efficiency rankings are ALL in the favor of the Lions as they outperform the Bears in 8 out of 8 efficiencies and rankings. The Lions are 9-5-0 ATS this season overall and cover at 64.3% with a MOV of 12.6 points. The pick for this match-up is the Lions on the Spread at -6.5 with a variance of 6.07 points.
If you enjoyed this article, check out my Giants vs Falcons Prediction here:
About Mindy:
Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years. Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports. This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks. If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day. Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!! Let’s get some wins!