Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction 12/22/24 NFL

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction 12/22/24 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
Cleveland Browns Line: 8.5
Cincinnati Bengals Line: -8.5
Total: 47.0
TV: NBC

 

On Sunday 12/22 the Cleveland Browns will take on the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 31.9 °F with 3.4 mph wind and 0 % chance of rain. This game features a match-up of two AFC North teams.  The AFC North is the #5 ranked conference in the NFL with a 50% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 3-11 Browns are ranked #4 in the AFC North and the 6-8 Bengals are ranked #3.

Last Week’s Re-Cap

Last week the Browns lost against the Chiefs 7 to 21 in which they allowed the Chiefs to gain a total of 311 yards of offense. The Browns were outscored by 14 while being out gained by the Chiefs by 45 yards even while having 6 more turnovers.

Last week the Bengals came out with the victory against the Titans 37 to 27 while allowing the Titans to gain 374 yards of total offense. The Bengals won by 10 while being out gained by the Titans by 4 yards with 2 fewer turnovers against the Titans.

Can the Browns Win on Sunday?

Skill Position Impact 

The Browns will start Dorian Thompson-Robinson this week after having seen enough interceptions from Winston.  He is ranked #53 for QB’s this week and he has completed 15 passes on 34 attempts and has averaged 25 yards per game with a completion percentage of 44.1% and 3 INT’s. His QBR is 71.9% below the league average and he has 0 fourth quarter comebacks and 0 game winning drives this season.

The Browns running back Jerome Ford is the #47 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 37.6 yards per game and 5.2 yards per rush attempt while scoring 2 TD’s and having 0 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 47.1% which is 6.2% less than the league average for this statistic.

The Browns tight end 1 David Njoku is the #37 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 5.6 receptions per game while averaging 7.8 yards per reception to go along with 5 TD’s and 0 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 64.4% which is 8.8% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 37.9% is 32.1% less than the league average for these statistics.

Wide receiver 1 for the Browns is Cedric Tillman who is ranked #141 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 2.6 receptions per game with a 11.7 yards per catch average to go along with 3 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 59.2% which is 4.9% below league average and a receiving success rate of 49% which is 4.3% less than the league average for wide receivers in this statistical category.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Browns

The Browns offense has scored 239 points this season which is 25.5% less than the NFL average and have 27 turnovers which is an average of 1.9 turnovers per game. The Browns offensive per drive statistics show that 24.6% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 15% of drives end with a turnover. The Browns average 11.9 offensive drives per game and they average 5.7 plays, 25.9 yards, starting field position on their Own 29.5 yard line, and result in 1.34 points per drive. We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Browns have scored 16 red zone TD’s on 28 red zone opportunities which is 38.9% lower and 39% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Browns

The defense for Browns has allowed 356 points in 2024 which is 10.9% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 11 turnovers which is an average of 0.8 turnovers per game which is 33.3% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Browns is allowing 128.2 rush yards per game and 19 rushing TD’s which is 7.7% higher and 41.8% higher than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Browns pass defense is allowing 212.7 passing yards per game, 20 TD’s, and 4 INT’s which compared to league averages are 2.2% above, 1.5% above, 60.4% below league averages respectively for passing defense. A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Browns defense blitzes at 28.4% with a QB hurry rate of 9.3%, a QB knockdown rate of 13% and a QB pressure rate of 27.8%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Browns:

  • Browns TE David Njoku (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Bengals, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
  • Browns WR Cedric Tillman (concussion) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Bengals, Mary Kay Cabot of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
  • Browns QB Jameis Winston (shoulder) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Bengals, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
  • Browns CB Martin Emerson Jr. (concussion) is questionable for Sunday’s outing against the Bengals, Mary Kay Cabot of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
  • Browns DT Shelby Harris (elbow) is out for Sunday’s game against the Bengals, Mary Kay Cabot of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
  • Browns DE Myles Garrett is listed as questionable for this week’s game. The latest update is Garrett (back) did not participate this week.
  • Browns RB Nick Chubb (foot) was placed on injured reserve Wednesday.

There are 20 players on the Browns injury report for this week which is 23.5% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries.

Player Props:

  • Jerry Jeudy has recorded 64+ receiving yards in the brown last 7 games
  • Jerry Jeudy has scored a touchdown in each of the brown last 3 road games

Can the Bengals Win on Sunday?

Skill Position Impact 

The Bengals QB Joe Burrow is ranked #1 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 361 passes on 527 attempts and has averaged 284.1 yards per game with a completion percentage of 68.5% with 36 TD’s and 8 INT’s. His QBR is 25.9% above the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comebacks and 1 game winning drives this season.

The Bengals running back Chase Brown is the #16 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 59.4 yards per game and 4.4 yards per rush attempt to go along with 7 TD’s and 2 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 51.8% which is 3.2% more than the league average for this statistic.

The Bengals tight end 1 Mike Gesicki is the #67 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.2 receptions per game while averaging 11 yards per reception to go along with 2 TD’s and 1 fumble for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 76.3% which is 8% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 62.7% is 12.3% more than the league average for these statistics.

For the Bengals at wide receiver 1 is Ja’Marr Chase who is ranked #1 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 7.3 catches per game and 13.9 yards per reception to go with 15 TD’s and 0 fumbles on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 73.9% which is 18.7% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 63% which is 23.1% more than the wide receiver league averages.

At wide receiver 2 the Bengals have Tee Higgins.  He is ranked at #53 on the WR\TE’s ranks this week and averages 5.6 receptions per game and 13.4 yards per reception with season totals of 6 TD’s and 0 fumbles. He has a catch success rate of 61.7% which is 3.2% below league average and a receiving success rate of 59.3% which is 12.6% more than the WR league averages in the advanced receiving metrics.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Bengals

The offense for the Bengals has scored 399 points so far this year which is 24.3% more than the NFL average and they have 18 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.3 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Bengals show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 43.9% of their drives whereas 10.8% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Bengals offensive per drive averages are 10.6 drives per game with an average of 6 plays, 34.3 yards, starting field position on the Bengals Own 30.6 yard line, and average 2.56 points per drive. When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical and the Bengals have scored 32 red zone TD’s on 47 attempts which is 22.2% higher and 2.4% higher respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Bengals

The Bengals defense has allowed 387 points so far this year which is 20.6% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 20 turnovers for an average of 1.4 turnovers per game which is 16.7% more than the rest of the league. The Bengals rush defense is giving up 126.9 rush yards per game to go along with 18 rushing TD’s which is respectively 6.6% higher and 34.3% higher than rush defense averages across the league. The pass defense for the Bengals is allowing 239.2 pass yards per game, 26 passing TD’s, and 12 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 10% below, 28.1% below, 18.8% above league averages respectively for pass defense. The Bengals advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 24.1%, QB hurry rate of 7.6%, QB knockdown rate of 11.5% and QB pressure rate of 22.6%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Bengals:

  • Bengals OT Orlando Brown Jr. (leg) is questionable for Sunday’s matchup against Cleveland.
  • Bengals WR Charlie Jones (groin) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Browns. 
  • Bengals DT Sheldon Rankins (illness) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Browns. 
  • Bengals TE Tanner Hudson (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Browns. 
  • Bengals G Alex Cappa is listed as questionable and Head coach Zac Taylor stated Monday that Cappa entered the league’s concussion protocols, Kelsey Conway of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports. 
  • Bengals DE Sam Hubbard (knee) will definitely be out against the Browns on Sunday, Kelsey Conway of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.

The Bengals have 19 players on their injury report which is 17.4% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 15.1% more than the Browns.

Player Props:

  • Chase Brown has recorded 70+ rushing yards in each of the Bengals last 4 games
  • Joe Burrow has recorded 309+ passing yards in his last 5 games
  • Ja’Marr Chase has recorded 86+ receiving yards in each of the Bengals last 3 games

Mindy’s Pick: Bengals -8.5

Overall team efficiency stats have the Browns ranked #30 while the Bengals come in ranked #14 in this week’s ranking list.  Analysis of overall, offense, defense, and special teams efficiencies and efficiency rankings shows the Bengals have the advantage in 6 out of 8 efficiencies and rankings and they have Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase compared to DTR and Cedric Tillman or Jerry Jeudy.  The pick for this match-up is the Bengals on the Spread at -8.5 with a variance of 6.08 points.

 

If you enjoyed this article, check out my prediction between the Titans and colts here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/?p=247513&preview=true

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!