Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers Prediction 12/22/24 NFL

Arizona Cardinals vs Carolina Panthers Prediction 12/22/24 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals vs Carolina Panthers Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
Arizona Cardinals Line: -5.0
Carolina Panthers Line: 5.0
Total: 47.0
TV: FOX

 

On Sunday 12/22 the Arizona Cardinals will take on the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 38.9 °F with 4.7 mph wind and 0 % chance of rain.  This game features a match-up of the NFC West vs NFC South.  The NFC West is the #3 ranked conference in the NFL with a 51.8% winning percentage while the NFC South is the #7 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 41.1%.  The 7-7 Cardinals are ranked #3 in the NFC West and the 3-11 Panthers are ranked #4 in the NFC South.

Last Week’s Re-Cap

Last week the Cardinals defeated the Patriots 30 to 17 in which they allowed the Patriots to gain a total of 311 yards of offense. The Cardinals picked up the win by 13 while out gaining the Patriots by 84 yards and having 1 less turnover.

Last week the Panthers were the favorite for the first time this year but ended up losing to the Cowboys 14 to 30 while allowing the Cowboys to gain 410 yards of total offense even with backup QB Cooper Rush running the offense. The Panthers were outscored by 16 while being out gained by the Cowboys by 175 yards and having 3 more turnovers.

Can the Cardinals Win on Sunday?

Skill Position Impact 

Arizona QB Kyler Murray is ranked #16 for QB’s this week and has completed 294 passes on 426 attempts and is averaging 220.4 yards per game with a completion percentage of 69% with 15 TD’s and 8 INT’s. His QBR is 16.4% above the league average and he has 3 fourth quarter comebacks and 3 game winning drives this season.

The Cardinals running back James Conner is the #10 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 69.5 yards per game and 4.5 yards per rush attempt while scoring 7 TD’s and having 4 fumbles. 

The Cardinals TE1 Trey McBride is the #6 ranked TE\WR this week and is averaging 6.8 receptions per game and averaged 10.5 yards per reception but has not caught a TD pass. Advanced receiving metrics show good production with a catch success rate at 76.7% that is 8.6% above league average then a receiving success rate of 64.7% which is also above the NFL averages at 15.9%.

Wide receiver 1 for the Cardinals is Marvin Harrison Jr. who is ranked #62 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 3.4 receptions per game with a 14.6 yards per catch average to go along with 7 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 51.1% which is 17.9% below league average and a receiving success rate of 46.7% which is 8.7% less than the league average for wide receivers showing that as good as he is performing there is room for improvement.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Cardinals

The Cardinals offense has scored 314 points this season which is 2.2% less than the NFL average and have 16 turnovers which is an average of 1.1 turnovers per game. The Cardinals offensive per drive statistics show that 43.7% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 11.9% of drives end with a turnover. The Cardinals average 9.6 offensive drives per game and they average 6.4 plays, for 36.5 yards, starting field position on their Own 28.0 yard line, and result in 2.23 points per drive.  Red Zone efficiency has the Cardinals scoring 24 red zone TD’s on 45 red zone opportunities which is 8.4% lower and 2% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Cardinals

The defense for Cardinals has allowed 306 points in 2024 which is 4.7% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 14 turnovers which is an average of 1 turnover per game which is 16.7% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Cardinals is allowing 121.4 rush yards per game and 13 rushing TD’s which is 2% higher and 3% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Cardinals pass defense is allowing 217 passing yards per game, 16 TD’s, and 7 INT’s which compared to league averages are 0.2% above, 21.2% above, 30.7% below league averages respectively for passing defense. A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Cardinals defense blitzes at 20.2% with a QB hurry rate of 5.1%, a QB knockdown rate of 6.8% and a QB pressure rate of 18.2%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Cardinals

  • Cardinals RB DeeJay Dallas is listed as questionable and didn’t practice Friday due to an illness.
  • Cardinals OT Paris Johnson Jr. (knee) will miss Sunday’s outing against the Panthers, Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com reports.
  • Cardinals LB Jesse Luketa (thigh) is out for Sunday’s matchup against the Panthers, Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com reports.
  • Cardinals LB Mack Wilson Sr. (concussion) is out for Sunday’s matchup against the Panthers, Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com reports.
  • Cardinals RB Trey Benson (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game at Carolina, Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com reports.
  • Cardinals PK Matt Prater is still on Injured Reserve but the latest update is Prater (knee) was a limited practice participant Thursday, Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com reports.
  • Cardinals CB Sean Murphy-Bunting is listed as questionable for this week’s game and was limited participant in practice.

There are 18 players on the Cardinals injury report for this week, which is 11.2% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries.

Player Props

  • Trey McBride has recorded 70+ receiving yards in each of the cardinals last 5 games
  • Kyler Murray has recorded 259+ passing yards in his last 5 games
  • James Conner has recorded 90+ rushing yards in the cardinals last 6 games
  • Michael Wilson has scored a touchdown in 4 of the Cardinals last 7 road games

Can the Panthers Win on Sunday?

Skill Position Impact 

The Panthers will go with Bryce Young who has a struggled mightily at times but is trying to improve his record of 2-7 as starting quarterback this season.  He is ranked #31 on the QB Rankings this week and has completed 177 passes on 296 attempts and has averaged 162.8 yards per game with a completion percentage of 59.8% with 8 TD’s and 9 INT’s. His QBR is 25.5% below the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comeback and 2 game winning drives this season.

The Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard has been one of the Panthers best players and is the #9 ranked RB this week.  He is averaging 74.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per rush attempt to go along with 8 TD’s and 4 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 55.1% which is 9.8% more than the league average for this statistic.

The Panthers tight end 1 Tommy Tremble is the #195 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 2 receptions per game while averaging 9.6 yards per reception to go along with 1 TD’s and 1 fumble for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his receiving success rate of 46.2% is 17.2% less than the league average for these statistics.

For the Panthers at wide receiver 1 is Xavier Legette who is ranked #80 for all WR\TE’s and at wide receiver 2 the Panthers have Adam Thielen who is ranked #117 for this week in the NFL.  Legette averages 2.9 catches per game and 10.7 yards per reception to go with 4 TD’s while Thielen averages 4.7 receptions per game and 12.7 yards per reception with season totals of 2 TD’s.  

Overall Offense Analysis for the Panthers

The offense for the Panthers has scored 247 points so far this year which is 23.1% less than the NFL average and they have 22 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.6 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Panthers show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 30.7% of their drives whereas 14.4% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Panthers offensive per drive averages are 10.9 drives per game with an average of 5.5 plays, 26.4 yards, starting field position on the Panthers Own 29.7 yard line, and average 1.63 points per drive. When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical and the Panthers have scored 22 red zone TD’s on 39 attempts which is 16% lower and 15% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages.  These are examples of the kind of stats that makes a team have 2 wins on the season.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Panthers

The Panthers defense has allowed 418 points so far this year which is 30.2% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 14 turnovers for an average of 1 turnovers per game which is 16.7% less than the rest of the league. The Panthers rush defense is giving up 173 rush yards per game to go along with 19 rushing TD’s which is respectively 45.3% higher and 41.8% higher than rush defense averages across the league. The pass defense for the Panthers is allowing 213.2 pass yards per game, 27 passing TD’s, and 7 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 1.9% above, 33% below, 30.7% below league averages respectively for pass defense. The Panthers advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 28.7%, QB hurry rate of 5%, QB knockdown rate of 5.6% and QB pressure rate of 15.5%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Panthers

  • Panthers LB Jadeveon Clowney (illness/knee) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Cardinals.
  • Panthers DE A’Shawn Robinson is listed as questionable for this week’s game against the Cardinals.
  • Panthers WR Jalen Coker (quadriceps) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s contest against the Cardinals.
  • Panthers WR Xavier Legette (hip) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game versus the Cardinals, Darin Gantt of the Panthers’ official site reports.
  • Panthers LB Trevin Wallace is on Injured Reserve and will not play in this week’s game and the latest update from Head coach Dave Canales on Wednesday is that Wallace will likely need a procedure to clean up his shoulder injury per Mike Kaye of The Charlotte Observer.
  • Panthers LB Claudin Cherelus (toe) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday.

The Panthers have 17 players on their injury report which is 5% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 8.2% more than the Cardinals.

Player Props

  • Chuba Hubbard has recorded 52+ rushing yards in his last 12 games
  • Adam Thielen has recorded 51+ receiving yards in his last 4 games
  • Bryce Young has recorded 219+ passing yards in each of the Panthers last 3 home games

Mindy’s Pick: Under 47.0

Overall team efficiency stats and ratings have the Cardinals ranked #17 and the Panthers ranked #32 in this week’s list.  The Under in the Panthers games are 10-4-0 and has come in 28.6% of the time with a +/- of 4.4 points. The highest rated pick for this match-up is on the total and is the Under 47 points.  My score projections for the total of this game is 39.06 so this pick has a variance of 7.94 points.

 

If you enjoyed this article make sure you check out my Vikings vs Seahawks prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/21/minnesota-vikings-vs-seattle-seahawks-prediction-12-22-24-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!