UCLA vs North Carolina Prediction 12/21/2024

UCLA vs North Carolina Preview

No. 18 UCLA (10-1) collides with North Carolina (6-5) in another of many SEC-Big Ten clashes on Saturday afternoon in the CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden in the city that never sleeps. Ohio State vs Kentucky will meet there in the first game of the Day. In its last 5 games, the Bruins have gone 5-0, defeating Southern Utah by 45 (88-43), old Pac-12 and new Big Ten rivals Washington by 11 (69-58), Oregon by 2 (73-71), Arizona by 3 (57-54), and Prairie View by 36 (111-75). The Tar Heels have gone 2-5 in their last 5, losing back-to-back games to Michigan State by 3 in OT (94-91) and Alabama by 15 (94-79), topping Georgia Tech by 3 (68-65), beating La Salle by 26 (93-67), and losing to unbeaten Florida by 6 (90-84). UCLA is currently priced at longshot 50/1 odds (DraftKings) to win the 2025 NCAA Basketball Tournament with North Carolina at 60/1. If there was a Mt. Rushmore of College Basketball teams, UCLA and North Carolina would be on it, probably with Kentucky and Connecticut.

UCLA’s Defense the Reason Bruins Are Winning

UCLA (8-3-0 ATS, 3-8-0 O/U) ranks No. 5 in the nation in Scoring Defense (56.8 ppg) and that defense is a huge reason why this team has covered ATS in 8 of its first 11 games and also why 8 of those first 11 have gone Under the Total. The new-look Bruins are led in scoring by F Tyler Bilodeau (14.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg), G Eric Dailey Jr. (11.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg), G Sebastian Mack (9.2 ppg), G Dylan Andrews (9.7 ppg, 3.1 apg), versatile G Kobe Johnson (7.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.6 apg), G Skyy Clark (6.1 ppg, 2.5 rpg), G Lazar Stefanovic (5.8 ppg), C Aday Mara (5.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg), and G Trent Perry (5.5 ppg) so this team is deep. UCLA averages 78.7 ppg (Tied-#114) but allows only 56.8 ppg—the No. 5 Scoring Defense in NCAA DI Basketball. The almost 22 ppg Point Differential is huge and John Wooden would be proud. If there was a Mt. Rushmore of Head Coaches in (Men’s) College Basketball, for me it would include Wooden, Mike Krzyzewsk (Duke), Bobby Knight (Indiana) and either Dean Smith (North Carolina) or Adolph Rupp (Kentucky). Wins are fine but culture is even better.

UCLA Betting Trends

• UCLA is 5-1-0 ATS in its last 6 games
• The Bruins have been Underdogs in 2 of their last 3 games
• The December 8 game at Oregon was UCLA’s first true Road game
• The Bruins are 9-0 SU in their last 9 games overall
• The Under is 7-3-0 in the last 10 UCLA games

Tar Heels Facing Tough Task vs Defensive UCLA

North Carolina (4-7-0 ATS, 7-4-0 O/U) changed the culture of College Basketball and ultimately the NBA by giving the world Michael Jordan—the culture-changing Beatles of the Hoops world. MJ is now long gone, but kids and adults around the globe wear his shoes and everyone knows Michael’s name like everyone knows Albert Einstein’s, Oprah Winfrey’s, and Taylor Swift’s names. Four of the Tar Heels 5 losses came at the hands of Top 10 teams (No. 1 Kansas, No. 2 Auburn, No. 10 Alabama, No. 7 Florida), so this meeting with No. 18 reveals how hard North Carolina’s early season schedule has been. The Tar Heels leading scorers are G RJ Davis (18.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 4.0 apg), G Seth Trimble (15.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg), G Eliot Cadreau (11.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 5.7 apg), G Ian Jackson (10.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg), F Ven-Allen Lubin (6.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg), F Jae’Lyn Withers (6.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg), and F Jalen Washington (6.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg). NC averages 86.5 ppg (Tied-#16) but allows 79.7 ppg, thus so many Overs (and so many Losses to date). Swing low sweet cherry, make it awful.

North Carolina Betting Trends

• North Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
• The Under is 4-2 in the Tar Heels last 6 games
• The Under is 2-0 in the last 2 series meetings
• The Tar Heels are 5-0 SU/ ATS in the last 5 series meetings
• North Carolina is 1-5 SU vs Power 4 conference teams

UCLA vs North Carolina Prediction

North Carolina has owned this series of late winning the last 5 meetings (78-56, 89-76, 94-79. 74-64, 73-66) all but one by double-digits and covering ATS in all 5. But that was then and this is now and this UCLA team is a different breed than and way better than last year’s lot who went 16-17 overall, 10-10 in the last year of the Pac-12 Conference and lost 6 of its last 8 games. Maybe stepping up their game for Big Ten Conference play is part of the reason why, but playing great defense wins games in all sports and wins an awful lot of bets in this thing that we do.

The Cavaliers have the best defense in the NBA and Cleveland has the best ATS Record at 19-8-0 (70.4%). The Broncos were tied (with the Chargers heading into TNF) for allowing the least number of Points in the NFL (247) and Denver had the best ATS Record at 11-3-0 (78.6%). The defense might win championships, but it also wins an awful lot of bets brother. With this diatribe in mind, this UCLA vs North Carolina NCAAB pick will look to the Bruins (-130 Moneyline) to hold the Tar Heels (+108 Moneyline) somewhat in check in the Big Apple and win by 5 or more.

Kevin’s Pick: UCLA -1.5