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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction 12/21/24 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction

Game Time: 4:30 PM EST
Pittsburgh Steelers Line: 6.5
Baltimore Ravens Line: -6.5
Total: 45.0
TV: NBC

 

On Saturday 12/21 the Pittsburgh Steelers will take on the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. The forecast for Saturday is for a temp of 34.1 °F with 15 mph wind and a 3 % chance of rain. This game features a match-up of two AFC North teams.  The AFC North is the #5 ranked conference in the NFL with a 50% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 10-4 Steelers are ranked #1 in the AFC North and the 9-5 Ravens are ranked #2.

Last Week’s Re-Cap

Last week the Steelers lost against the Eagles 13 to 27 in which they allowed the Eagles to gain a total of 401 yards of offense.  The Steelers were outscored by 14 while being outgained by the Eagles by 238 yards with 1 fewer turnover.

Last week the Ravens came out with the victory against the Giants 35 to 14 while allowing the Giants to gain 236 yards of total offense.  The Ravens won by 21 out gaining the Giants by 209 yards and having 0 turnovers against the Giants.

Can the Steelers Win on Saturday?

Skill Position Impact 

The Steelers will go with Russell Wilson who has a record of 6-2 as starting quarterback this season.  Russell Wilson is ranked #29 for QBs this week and he has completed 152 passes on 235 attempts and has averaged 239 yards per game with a completion percentage of 64.7% with 13 TD’s and 3 INT’s. His QBR is 5.7% below the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comeback and 1 game-winning drive this season.

The Steelers running back Najee Harris is the #7 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 63.6 yards per game and 3.9 yards per rush attempt while scoring 5 TDs and having 0 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 42.8% which is 14.7% less than the league average for this statistic.

The Steelers tight end 1 Pat Freiermuth is the #61 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.4 receptions per game while averaging 10.5 yards per reception to go along with 6 TDs and 2 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 83.9% which is 18.8% above the league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 64.3% is 15.2% more than the league average for these statistics.

With George Pickens out this week (see injury report), Van Jefferson is listed as wide receiver 1 for this game this week.  He is ranked as the #186 WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 1.4 receptions per game with a 12.2 yards per catch average with 2 TDs and 0 fumbles for the year. Advanced receiving stats show him as having a catch success rate of 59.4% which is 6.8% below the league average along with a receiving success rate of 46.9% which is 10.9% less than the league average for WR1’s for this stat.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Steelers

The Steelers offense has scored 336 points this season which is 4.7% more than the NFL average and has 12 turnovers which is an average of 0.9 turnovers per game.  The Steelers’ offensive per-drive statistics show that 42.9% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 7.8% of drives end with a turnover.  The Steelers average 11 offensive drives per game and they average 5.9 plays, 28.8 yards, starting field position on their 32.5-yard line, and result in 2.04 points per drive.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Steelers

The defense for the Steelers has allowed 265 points in 2024 which is 17.4% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 30 turnovers which is an average of 2.1 turnovers per game which is 75% more than the league average.  The rush defense for the Steelers is allowing 94.4 rush yards per game and 13 rushing TDs which is 20.7% lower and 3% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense stats.   The Steeler’s pass defense is allowing 222.3 passing yards per game, 16 TDs, and 15 INTs which compared to league averages are 2.3% below, 21.2% above, and  48.5% above league averages respectively for passing defense.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Steelers

  • Steelers S DeShon Elliott (hamstring) has been ruled out for Saturday’s game against the Ravens, Burt Lautenof the Pittsburgh Steelers reports.
  • Steelers CB Donte Jackson (back) was a limited participant in Thursday’s practice and is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game against the Ravens, Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com reports.
  • Steelers DT Larry Ogunjobi (groin) was a limited participant in Thursday’s practice and is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game against the Ravens, Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com reports.
  • Steelers WR George Pickens (hamstring) has been ruled out for Saturday’s game against the Ravens, Teresa Varley of the Steelers’ official site reports.
  • Steelers QB Justin Fields (abdomen) did not practice Thursday and is ruled out for Sunday’s matchup against the Ravens, Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com reports.
  • Steelers DE DeMarvin Leal (neck) is not expected to return this season, Mike DeFabo of The Athletic reports.
  • Steelers OT Calvin Anderson (groin) is on injured reserve Saturday.

There are 16 players on the Steelers injury report for this week which is 1.2% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries and is 88.8% more than the Ravens.

Can the Ravens Win on Saturday?

Skill Position Impact 

The Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is ranked #5 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 275 passes on 404 attempts and has averaged 255.7 yards per game with a completion percentage of 68.1% with 34 TD’s and 3 INT’s. His QBR is 29.3% above the league average and he has 2 fourth-quarter comebacks and 2 game-winning drives this season.

The Ravens running back Derrick Henry is the #4 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 105.3 yards per game and 5.8 yards per rush attempt to go along with 13 TD’s and 3 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 57.1% which is 13.8% more than the league average for this statistic.

The Ravens tight end 1 Mark Andrews is the #65 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.2 receptions per game while averaging 11.4 yards per reception to go along with 8 TDs and 0 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 84.9% which is 20.2% above the league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 69.8% is 25% more than the league average for these statistics.

For the Ravens at wide receiver 1 is Zay Flowers who is ranked #25 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 4.7 catches per game and 13.9 yards per reception to go with 4 TDs and 0 fumbles on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 65.3% which is 4.9% above the league average combined with a receiving success rate of 53.5% which is 4.5% more than the wide receiver league averages.

At wide receiver 2 the Ravens have Rashod Bateman listed as Questionable for this week, but he is ranked at #90 on the WR\TE’s ranks this week and averages 2.7 receptions per game and 17.2 yards per reception with season totals of 7 TDs and 0 fumbles. He has a catch success rate of 63.3% which is 0.7% below the league average and a receiving success rate of 53.3% which is 1.2% more than the WR league averages in the advanced receiving metrics.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Ravens

The offense for the Ravens has scored 418 points so far this year which is 30.2% more than the NFL average and they have 10 turnovers on offense for an average of 0.7 turnovers per game.  The offense per drive stats for the Ravens show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 47.3% of their drives whereas 6.7% of drives end with a fumble or interception.  The Ravens’ offensive per-drive averages are 10.7 drives per game with an average of 5.9 plays, 39.3 yards, starting field position on the Ravens Own 28.6-yard line, and an average of 2.81 points per drive.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Ravens

The Raven’s defense has allowed 332 points so far this year which is 3.4% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 12 turnovers for an average of 0.9 turnovers per game which is 25% less than the rest of the league.  The Ravens rush defense is giving up 80.7 rush yards per game to go along with 12 rushing TDs which is respectively 32.2% lower and 10.4% lower than rush defense averages across the league.  The pass defense for the Ravens is allowing 258.9 pass yards per game, 24 passing TDs, and 8 INTs which if compared to league averages is 19.1% below, 18.2% below, and 20.8% below league averages respectively for pass defense.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Ravens

  • Ravens WR Nelson Agholor (concussion) was downgraded to out for Saturday’s game against the Steelers.
  • Ravens CB Jalyn Armour-Davis (hamstring) missed practice for the third straight day Thursday and is listed as out for Saturday’s game against the Steelers.
  • Ravens LB Odafe Oweh (ankle) was a limited participant in Thursday’s walkthrough and is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game against the Steelers.
  • Ravens WR Diontae Johnson (personal) has been ruled out for Saturday’s game against the Steelers.
  • Ravens WR Rashod Bateman (foot) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game against Pittsburgh.

The Ravens have 13 players on their injury report which is 19.7% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 88.8% less than the Steelers.

Mindy’s Pick: Over 45

Overall comparison of the offenses in this match-up shows that the Ravens are better than the Steelers in 20 of 26 offensive statistics for offense.  And the best stat of the day is…the Over\Under in the Ravens games this year is 11-3-0 for the over at 78.6% with a +/- of 5.6 points. The best bet pick for this match-up is on a total of over 45 points.  My score projection for the total of this game is 54.88 so this pick has a variance of 9.88 points.

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!