Ohio State vs Kentucky Prediction 12/21/2024

Ohio State vs Kentucky Prediction

No. 4 Kentucky (10-1) faces Ohio State (7-4, 1-6 on the Road) in an SEC-Big Ten clash in the CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden on Saturday afternoon. In their last 5 games, the Buckeyes have gone 2-3, losing back-to-back games to Pitt by 1 in OT (91-90) and Maryland by 24 (83-59), beating Rutgers by 14 (80-66), losing to No. 2 Auburn by 38 (91-53), and beating Valparaiso by 22 in its last game (95-73). The Wildcats have gone 4-1 over their last 5 games, trouncing Georgia State by 29 (105-76), losing at Clemson by 4 (70-66), and then beating Gonzaga by 1 in OT in Spokane (90-89), Colgate by 11 (78-67), and Louisville by 8 in their last game (93-85). Kentucky is now at 17/1 odds to win the 2025 NCAA Basketball Tournament.

Ohio State Looking For a Win Against Quality Side

Ohio State (6-3-0 ATS, 4-5-1 O/U) will be playing its 4th SEC opponent already, and after knocking off Texas in the season opener, the Wildcats have lost to ranked Texas A&M and Auburn, so here we will see if the Buckeyes can hang with the big boys. Ohio State is led by  F Devin Royal (15.6 ppg, 7.9 rpg), G Bruce Thornton (14.8 ppg, 5.1 apg), G John Mobley Jr. (12.1 ppg), G Micah Parrish (10.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg), G Meechie Johnson Jr. (9.1 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.7 apg), and F Aaron Bradshaw (7.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg). The Buckeyes (+220 Moneyline) are averaging 80.7 ppg (#78) while allowing 69.1 ppg, 14.9 apg (Tied-#147) and 36.0 rpg (Tied-#218). Ohio State lost 3 players off last year’s squad who graduated and another 5 in the Transfer Portal but the Buckeyes saw 5 come to Columbus in the Transfer Portal, including Johnson (South Carolina), Bradshaw (Kentucky), and Parrish (San Diego State).

Ohio State Betting Trends

• Ohio State is 5-3 SU/ATS in its last 8 games overall
• The Under is 3-1 in the last 4 Buckeyes dribbles
• Ohio State went 17-18-1 ATs in the 2023-24 NCAAB season
• The Buckeyes are 20-16 ATS their last 36 games (+2.35 Units, 5% ROI)
• Ohio State is 23-13 on the First Half Moneyline last 36 (+9.30 Units, 5% ROI)

Kentucky Climbs Into Top 5 NCAAB Rankings 

Kentucky (5-5-1 ATS, 7-4-0 O/U) has been impressive so far this season, scoring over 100 points 3 times already and knocking off Duke at the State Farm Champions Game at State Farm Arena on November 12 in Atlanta as well as Gonzaga in Washington state. The Wildcats have six players averaging double-figures in Otega Oweh (15.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg), Lamont Butler (15.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.1 apg), Koby Brea (12.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg), Jaxson Robinson (12.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg), Andrew Carr (10.9 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.7 apg) and Amari Williams (10.2, 9.1 rpg). Adding Transfers Oweh (Oklahoma), Butler (San Diego State), Carr (Wake Forest), Williams (Drexel), Ansley Almonor (5.5 ppg, Fairleigh Dickinson), Kerr Kriisa (West Virginia) and Brandon Garrison (Oklahoma State) gives new Head Coach Mark Pope an embarrassment of riches in Lexington. The current Ken Pomeroy Rankings have the Wildcats ranked at No. 12 behind 4 other talented SEC schools in Auburn (#1), Tennessee (#2), Florida (#8), and Alabama (#9).

Kentucky Betting Trends

• The Over is 23-11 in Kentucky’s last 34 games  (+10.85 Units, 29% ROI)
• The Wildcats were 18-15-0 ATS in 2023-24
• Kentucky is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
• The Wildcats Team Total Over is 23-11 the last 34 (+9.40 Units, 26% ROI)
• The Wildcats have alternated Overs/Unders their last 7 (OUOUOUO)
• Kentucky is 1-5-0 ATS the last 6 games

Ohio State vs Kentucky Prediction

In the last 3 meetings between these two, Ohio State has gone 2-1 SU and ATS. Kentucky’s lone win and ATS cover came at Columbus on March 25, 2011, winning by 2 (62-60) but getting 5.5 points in a game that went Under the 141.5 Total by 19.5 points. Nine years ago exactly to the date of this preview on December 19, 2015, Ohio State won by 7 (74-67) covered  ATS and won outright as 8.5-Point Underdogs in a meeting that went Over the 135 Total by 6 points. And in the last meeting between these two on December 21, 2019, the Buckeyes won by 6 (71-65) and got the money giving 3.5 points in a game that went Over the closing 132 Total by 4 points. We can expect another low Total for this one in the Big Apple. Although this is not a true Road game,  in the Buckeyes 2 true Road games at Texas A&M and at Maryland, they lost by 14 and 24 points respectively. But this Ohio State vs Kentucky NCAAB pick will look to the Totals market and tab the Over with the Buckeyes averaging 80.7 ppg and Kentucky (-275 Moneyline) averaging 91.3 ppg (#1 in Division I).

Kevin’s Pick: Kentucky-Ohio State Over 160.5