Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
| Game Time: | 1:00 pm EST |
| Houston Texans Line: | +3.5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs Line: | -3.5 |
| Total: | 42 |
| TV: | NBC |
On Saturday 12/21 the Houston Texans will take on the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The forecast for Saturday is for a temp of 34.1 °F with 5.8 mph wind and a 0% chance of rain. This game features a match-up of the AFC South vs AFC West. The AFC South is the #8 ranked conference in the NFL with a 37.5% winning percentage while the AFC West is the #2 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 56.8%. The 9-5 Texans are ranked #1 in the AFC South and the 13-1 Chiefs are ranked #1 in the AFC West. To give some perspective on how these two teams stack up to each other, the Texans have played the 20th easiest strength of schedule while the Chiefs have played the 25th easiest SOS in NFL in 2024.
Last Week’s Re-Cap
Last week the Texans defeated the Dolphins 20 to 12 in which they allowed the Dolphins to gain a total of 224 yards of offense. The Texans picked up the win by 8 while but were out gained by the Dolphins by 43 yards but were able to get 3 turnovers from the Dolphins.
Last week the Chiefs came out with the victory against the Browns 21 to 7 while allowing the Browns to gain 266 yards of total offense. The Chiefs won by 14, out gained the Browns by 45 yards, and forced the Browns into 6 turnovers.
Can the Texans Win on Saturday?
Skill Position Impact
The Texans’ starting QB is C.J. Stroud who is ranked #12 in this week’s QB’s Rankings, and he has completed 290 passes on 456 attempts and has averaged 232 yards per game with a completion percentage of 63.6% with 17 TD’s and 9 INT’s. His QBR is 15.1% below the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comeback and 2 game winning drives this season. C.J. Stroud is playing well but has underperformed compared to the lofty expectations that he set for himself last year.
Then the Texans have Joe Mixon at running back who is the #11 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 82.7 yards per game and 4.2 yards per rush attempt while scoring 11 TD’s and having 0 fumbles on the season. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 41.5% which is 17.3% less than the league average for this statistic.
At tight end 1, the Texans’ have Dalton Schultz is the #73 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.1 receptions per game while averaging 10.2 yards per reception to go along with 1 TD’s and 0 fumbles for the season. His advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 63.2% which is 10.5% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 51.5% is 7.8% less than the league average for these statistics.
Nico Collins, wide receiver 1 for the Texans, is ranked as the #47 WR\TE’s this week. He averages 5.9 receptions per game with a 16 yards per catch average with 6 TD’s and 0 fumbles for the year. Advanced receiving stats a catch success rate of 67.9% which is 6.5% above league average along with a receiving success rate of 57.7% which is 9.6% more than the league average for WR1’s for this stat.
Overall Offense Analysis for the Texans
The Texans offense has scored 328 points this season which is 2.2% more than the NFL average and have 15 turnovers which is an average of 1.1 turnovers per game. The Texans offensive per drive statistics show that 39.3% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 8.6% of drives end with a turnover. The Texans average 11.6 offensive drives per game, and they average 5.7 plays, 27.8 yards, starting field position on their Own 32.2-yard line, and result in 1.94 points per drive.
Overall Defense Analysis for the Texans
The defense for Texans has allowed 300 points the season which is 6.5% less than the NFL average for points allowed and have caused 28 turnovers which is an average of 2 turnovers per game which sits them at 66.7% higher than the league average. The Texans rush defense is allowing 105.6 rush yards per game and 7 rushing TD’s which is 11.3% lower and 47.8% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Texans pass defense is allowing 196.9 passing yards per game, 27 TD’s, and 19 INT’s which compared to league averages are 9.4% above (yards), 33% below (TD’s), 88.1% above (INT’s) league averages respectively for passing defense. A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Texans defense blitzes at 23% with a QB hurry rate of 8%, a QB knockdown rate of 8.7% and a QB pressure rate of 23.9%.
Significant Injury Report Updates for the Texans
Texans C Juice Scruggs (foot) has been ruled out for Saturday’s game against Kansas City.
Texans DT Folorunso Fatukasi (ankle) is listed as Out for this week’s game and did not practice Thursday and has been ruled out for Saturday’s game against the Chiefs.
Texans TE Cade Stover (appendix) has been ruled out for Saturday’s game.
Texans WR John Metchie III (shoulder) did not practice Thursday and has been ruled out for Saturday’s game against the Chiefs.
Overall, the Texans have 16 players on the injury report for this week which is 1.2% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries but is 8.4% more than the Chiefs.
Player Props:
- Nico Collins has recorded 117+ receiving yards in each of his last 3 games vs the AFC
- CJ Stroud has recorded 232+ passing yards in 4 of the last 5 games
- Joe Mixan has recorded 101+ rushing yards in each of their last 6 road a
Can the Chiefs Win on Saturday?
Skill Position Impact
The Chiefs will go with Patrick Mahomes even with last week’s injury to his ankle being a concern. Patrick Mahomes is ranked as the #10 QB in the Rankings this week and he has completed 335 passes on 502 attempts and has averaged 239.1 yards per game with a completion percentage of 66.7% with 22 TD’s and 11 INT’s. His QBR is 9.6% above the league average and he has 5 fourth quarter comebacks and 7 game winning drives this season. Mahomes continues to be the difference maker in whether the Chiefs are 13-1 or 8-5.
The Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco seems to be getting back to full speed after his injury absence. This week he is the #59 ranked RB, and he is averaging 53.2 yards per game and 3.9 yards per rush attempt to go along with 1 TD’s and 0 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 57.4% which is 14.4% more than the league average for this statistic.
The Chiefs tight end 1 Travis Kelce is the #8 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 6 receptions per game while averaging 8.4 yards per reception to go along with 2 TD’s and 2 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 73% which is 3.3% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 59.1% is 5.9% more than the league average for these statistics but these stats are still not up to the usual Travis Kelce level.
For the Chiefs at wide receiver 1 is DeAndre Hopkins is ranked #54 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL. He averages 3.6 catches per game and 11.3 yards per reception to go with 5 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 69.4% which is 11.4% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 59.7% which is 16.7% more than the wide receiver league averages.
Overall Offense Analysis for the Chiefs
The offense for the Chiefs has scored 329 points so far this year which is 2.5% more than the NFL average and they have 14 turnovers on offense for an average of 1 turnover per game. The offense per drive stats for the Chiefs show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 44.4% of their drives whereas 9.9% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Chiefs offensive per drive averages are 10.1 drives per game with an average of 6.8 plays, 33.2 yards, starting field position on the Chiefs Own 30.1-yard line, and they average 2.29 points per drive.
Overall Defense Analysis for the Chiefs
The Chiefs defense has allowed 259 points so far this year which is 19.3% less than the league average for points allowed while creating 16 turnovers for an average of 1.1 turnovers per game which is 8.3% less than the rest of the league. The Chiefs rush defense is giving up 91.9 rush yards per game to go along with 11 rushing TD’s which is respectively 22.8% lower and 17.9% lower than rush defense averages across the league. The pass defense for the Chiefs is allowing 215 pass yards per game, 18 passing TD’s, and 10 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 1.1% above, 11.3% above, 1% below league averages respectively for pass defense. The Chiefs advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 33.4%, QB hurry rate of 9.2%, QB knockdown rate of 12.7% and QB pressure rate of 26.3%.
Significant Injury Report Updates for the Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is Not listed on the Injury Report as of Friday
Chiefs WR Hollywood Brown (shoulder), officially remains on IR, but did practice in full Thursday and does not carry an injury designation for Saturday’s game against the Texans. Stay tuned!
Overall the Chiefs have 14 players on their injury report which is 13.5% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 8.4% less than the Texans.
Player Props:
- Xavier Worthy has recorded 41+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs last 5 games
- Travis Kelce has recorded 50+ receiving yards in 7 of the Chiefs last 8 games
- Patrick Mahomes has record 210+ passing yards in 10 of the Chiefs last 11 home games
Mindy’s Pick: Texans +3.5
Overall comparison of this match-up shows that on offense, the Chiefs have the advantage in 18 of 25 offensive statistics compared to the Texans offense. Then on defense, the edge also goes to the Chiefs in 10 of 26 defensive categories as compared to the Texans defense. Analysis of overall, offense, defense, and special teams efficiencies and efficiency rankings shows the Chiefs have the advantage in 6 out of 8 of all the team efficiencies and rankings, with the overall team efficiency having the Texans ranked #13 while the Chiefs are ranked #6 this week.
That being said, what we all know about the Chiefs is that almost all their games are close even when there is no way they should be. But getting 3.5 against the Chiefs with a team as capable as the Texans is too much to resist. While the Texans are only 6-6-2 ATS this season and cover at only 50% which isn’t great but then if you compare that to the Chiefs who are only covering at 42.9% ATS with a 6-8-0 ATS record on the year then it is not so bad. Take the points, take the Texans!!