Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan Wolverines 11-25-23

Tennessee vs Ohio State Prediction 12/21/2024: College Football Picks

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Tennessee vs Ohio State Prediction 12/21/2024

What: College Football Playoff First Round Game
When: Saturday, December 21, 2024 at 8:00 EST/5:00 PST
Where: Ohio Stadium (Shaw Sports Momentum Pro), Columbus, Ohio 
Tennessee vs Ohio State Line: Ohio State -7.5
Total: 46.5
TV: ABC, ESPN

Tennessee vs Ohio State Preview

No. 8-seed Ohio State (10-2, 7-2 in Big Ten) hosts No. 9-seed Tennessee (10-2, 6-2 in SEC) at The Shoe in one of the best games of the CFP and NFL weekend and the last of the first four First Round games in the inaugural College Football Playoff (CFP). On the first day of Winter, the Weather forecast in Columbus is calling for chilly 23°-27° Temperatures throughout the game, so three of these first four CFP games will be played in below-freezing conditions. The Weather outside is frightful. The Volunteers’ two losses were to another CFP participant in Georgia (31-17) and Arkansas (19-14) while the Buckeyes’ two losses were to new Big Ten members and unbeaten and No. 1-seed Oregon (32-31) and hated rivals and 2023 national runners-up Michigan (13-10). Tennessee is currently priced at 25/1 with Ohio State at +475 to become national champions (DraftKings).

 

In their last 5 games, the Volunteers went 4-1, beating Kentucky by 10 (28-18), Mississippi State by 19 (33-14), losing to aforementioned Georgia by 14 (31-17), creaming UTEP by 56 (56-0), and topping Vanderbilt by 13 (36-23). The Buckeyes are also 4-1 in their last 5, beating Penn State by 7 (20-13), shutting out Purdue by 45 (45-0), painting Northwestern purple by 24 (31-7), and humbling Indiana by 24 (38-15) before losing to the Wolverines in the rivalry of all rivalries. The winner of this game faces No. 1-seed Oregon in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California in the Quarterfinals on New Year’s Day (ESPN, 5 EST/2 PST).

Tennessee Getting Steady Money at Sportsbooks

Although this Postseason do-or-die game isn’t a Bowl, it is a game that (really) matters after the Regular Season and Conference Championship Games, so it’s worth looking at how Rocky Top has done in Bowl games. Tennessee (7-5-0 ATS, 7-5-0 O/U) has gone 30-25 in its 55 Bowl appearances and the Volunteers have won 6 of the last 7, including last year over Iowa in the Citrus Bowl (35-0). Tennessee has 5 players who entered the Transfer Portal—LB Jalen Smith, WR Kaleb Webb, RB Khalifa Keith, OL Vysen Lang, and CB Jordan Matthews—and none of them have been practicing for the Volunteers.

 

The Volunteers (+237 Moneyline) are led by QB Nico Iamaleava (2,512 Passing yards, 19 TD, 5 Interceptions), RB Dylan Sampson (1,485 Rushing yards, 22 TDs, 5.8 ypc), and WR Dont’e Thornton Jr. (647 Receiving yards, 6 TD, 25.9 ypc) and this team is averaging 37.3 ppg (#13) with a very balanced 230.9 Passing Yards Per Game (#62) and 232.0 Rushing Yards Per Game (#9). Where Tennessee shines this 2024 NCAA Football season is on defense where the Vols are allowing just 13.9 ppg (Tied-#4).

Tennessee Betting Trends

  • Tennessee is 5-5-0 in its last 10 both ATS and in the Totals market 
  • The Over is 4-1 in the Volunteer’s last 5 games overall, 3-0-0 the last 3
  • The Volunteers are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall
  • Tennessee is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games overall
  • In 36 SEC-Big Ten CFP-Era Postseason games, the SEC is 25-11 SU (69.4%)

Ohio State Aims to Skirt SEC Postseason Dominance

Ohio State (6-6-0 ATS, 5-7-0 O/U) was hoping for a First Round CFP Bye, but rivals Michigan burst the Buckeyes bubble and made its own dismal season that much better. The Wolverines may have fallen off the edge of the Earth, but at least they beat the Buckeyes, right? Ohio State (-291 Moneyline) has 3 players in the Transfer Portal—WR Kojo Antwi, LB Gabe Powers, and backup QB Devin Brown—but Brown said he intends to stay with the team throughout the CFP. Buckeyes starting LT Josh Simmons is also out for the year and has already declared for the 2025 NFL Draft.

 

Ohio State is led by QB Will Howard (2,860 passing yards, 27 TD, 8 Interceptions), RBs Quinshon Judkins (805 Rushing yards, 8 TD, 5.5 ypc) and TreVeyon Henderson (751 Rushing yards, 6 TD, 7.0 ypc) and star WRs Jeremiah Smith (934 Receiving yards, 10 TD, 16.4 ypc), Emeka Egbuka (743 Receiving yards, 9 TD, 12.4 ypc), and Carnell Tate (583 Receiving yards, 4 TD, 14.2 ypc). Ohio State has given up more than 17 points only once—in a 32-21 loss to No. 1 Oregon—and this team shut out Western Michigan and Purdue and allowed only 7 points to Michigan State, Iowa, and Northwestern.

Ohio State Betting Trends

  • Ohio State is tied for #10 in the nation in Scoring Offense (37.5 ppg)
  • The Buckeyes are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games overall 
  • The Buckeyes are 0-1 lifetime vs Tennessee, losing in the 1996 Citrus Bowl
  • The Under is 7-3-0 in the last 10 Ohio State games, 5-1-0 last 6
  • Ohio State is a dominating 51-10 SU in its last 61 games
  • The Buckeyes have been 11-2 SU the last 4 seasons

Tennessee vs Ohio State Prediction

Some money has come in on the Volunteers and the Under in this game, and with the Weather forecast the way it is and two elite defenses, you can see why this is the lowest Total of the four CFP First Round games and you can still find a 46.5 if you shop around. With the SEC having been so dominant against the Big Ten in the CFP Era in Postseason games (25-11), it’s easy to lean with Tennessee until you realize that Ohio State allows the fewest points per game of any team in FBS and this game is at Home. And this team is obviously in a foul mood after losing to Michigan and its chance to earn a First Round Bye.

 

Many OSU fans want Head Coach Ryan Day’s head if he doesn’t win the national championship this time around, but when a guy goes 11-2 four straight years and has his team in the first-ever CFP and in maybe (now) the toughest NCAA Football conference, it’s hard to side with them. This Tennessee vs Ohio State NCAAF pick will look to the Totals market and back the Under with both teams being hard-pressed to score 24 points in this situation and this frigid environment. If you are thinking about backing the Home team, it would be best to either shop around and hope a (Ohio State minus) 7 shows up by kickoff or simply buy the Half-Point. Be best.

 

Kevin’s Pick: Tennessee-Ohio State Under 46.5