SMU vs Penn State Prediction 12/21/2024
| What: | College Football Playoff First Round Game |
| When: | Saturday, December 21, 2024 at 12:00 pm EST/9:00 am PST |
| Where: | Beaver Stadium (Natural Grass), University Park, Pennsylvania |
| SMU vs Penn State Line: | Penn State -8.5 |
| Total: | 54.5 |
| TV: | TNT, Max |
SMU vs Penn State Preview
On Saturday, we have three more First Round games in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP), starting with No. 6-seed Penn State (11-2, 8-1 in Big Ten) welcoming No. 11-seed SMU (11-2, 8-0 in ACC) to University Park where the Weather forecast is calling for brisk 27° Temperatures and 12 mph Winds at kickoff. The Nittany Lions ‘ losses were to two CFP participants in No. 8-seed Ohio State and to No. 1-seed Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game while the Mustang’s 2 losses came to BYU and Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. If Penn State and SMU won those games, both would have First Rounfirst-round winner of this game will face CFP No. 3-seed Boise State in Glendale, Arizona in the Quarterfinals. Online sportsbook DraftKings currently has Notre Dame priced at 6/1 to be the national champs with SMU a longshot at 45/1.
In their last 5 games, the Mustangs have gone 4-1, beating Pitt by 23 (48-25), Boston College by 10 (38-28), Virginia by 26 (33-7), and California by 32 (38-6) and losing that aforementioned ACC title tilt to the Tigers by 3 (34-31). The Nittany Lions have also gone 4-1 in their last 5 overall, defeating new Big Ten members and national runners-up Washington by 29 (35-6), Purdue by 39 (49-10), Minnesota by 1 (26-25), and Maryland by 37 (44-7) before losing that conference championship game to unbeaten Oregon by 8 (45-37). Penn State averaged a robust 38.0 ppg (190 points) in those last 5 while SMU averaged 37.6 (188 points) so these teams can generate some offense.
SMU is Playing in its Coldest Conditions While
Southern Methodist (8-5-0 ATS, 8-5-0 O/U) is used to playing in warmer climates, and moving to the ACC means potentially chillier games vs Syracuse, Boston College, and Pitt in the future, but not in this past season. The Mustangs (+260 Moneyline) will be playing in temperatures below freezing on Saturday and this seems like a distinct advantage to Penn State which is used to brushing its teeth with snow. The SMU offense is powered by QB Kevin Jennings (3.050 Passing yards, 22 TD, 8 Interceptions), RB Brashard Smith (1,270 Rushing yards, 14 TD, 5.9 ypc), and WR Roderick Dawson Jr. (599 Receiving yards, 3 TD, 15.8 ypc).
The Mustangs backup QB Preston Stone entered the Transfer portal but indicated that he will stay with the team throughout the CFP tournament but star TE RJ Maryland is injured and out for the year. SMU currently ranks a respectable No. 5 in Points Per Game (39.9), No. 50 in Rushing Yards Per Game (176.1), and No. 26 in Passing Yards Per Game (176.1). The Mustangs defense has also been very good, allowing just 20.8 ppg (#28) heading in here on Saturday but they will have to be at their best against this prolific Penn State group. Although this one isn’t me, SMU is 7-11-1 in Bowl games and has lost 2 straight (2022, 2023) with the previous 2 Bowl games they were invited to being canceled (2020, 2021).
SMU Betting Trends
- SMU is 9-1 in its last 10 games overall
- The Mustangs are 7-3-0 ATS in their last 10 overall
- The Over is 7-3-0 in the last 10 SMU games
- The Mustangs have scored at least 28 points in every game this season
- The Mustangs had been ATS Favorites in their last 7 games
- SMU went a perfect 4-0 on the Road this Regular Season (3-1 ATS)
Penn State Looks to its Punch Ticket to Glendale, Arizona
Penn State (6-7-0 ATS, 6-7-0 O/U) is right where it wants to be and the Nittany Lions (-320 Moneyline) will try to put an end to the “Big Game James” (Head Coach Franklin) not being able to win the big game for this storied program talk. Penn State is 3-19 SU vs Top 10 teams over the last 11 years—SMU is ranked No. 11—but this one doesn’t really although it is (now) the biggest game of the year for them. The Nittany Lions are led by QB Drew Allar (2,894 Passing yards, 21 TD, 7 Interceptions), RBs Nicholas Singleton (838 Rushing yards, 7 TD, 6.4 ypc) and Kaytron Allen (822 Rushing yards, 6 TD, 4.8 ypc), and TE Tyler Warren (1,062 Receiving yards, 6 TD, 12. ypc). Penn State will be without backup QB Beau Pribula (Transfer Portal) so true Freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer will serve as backup.
Penn State has the No. 6 Scoring Defense in the nation (16.4 ppg) and the No. 23 Scoring Offense (35.2 ppg), averaging 202.2 Rushing Yards Per Game (#19) and 246.5 Passing Yards Per Game (#41). The Nittany Lions have been to 53 Bowl games and gone 31-20-2 (60.4%) and 17-7-1 (70%) in the five Old School major Bowls (Rose, Orange, Sugar, Cotton, and Fiesta). Remember when all telephones were hooked to the wall? The team’s last national championship came in 1986 (Miami Florida) and they also won one in 1982 (Georgia). But remember butter breath, this is not a Bowl. This is much bigger. Bowl games don’t matter anymore. Pop-Tarts, Cheez-Its, or Scooter’s Coffee. The College Football playoff is the real football deal. Woof.
Penn State Betting Trends
- Penn State is a sohas beenring 1-14 SU vs Top 10 teams since 2017
- The Nittany Lions have alternated Losses/Wins in the last 7 Bowls (LWLWLWL)
- The Over is 4-0-0 in the Nittany Lions last 4 games
- The Nittany Lions were 4-0 on the Road in the Regular Season
- Penn State is 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS in Non-Conference games (124 PF-39 PA)
- The Nittany Lions are 1-0-1 lifetime vs SMU (the last meeting was in 1978)
SMU vs Penn State Prediction
As VSIN host Matt Youmans said, Penn State has a much easier path in the CFP than does top-seed Oregon. If the Nittany Lions can saddle the Mustangs and then the Broncos in Glendale in the Fiesta Bowl, they could find themselves in a Semifinal showdown with a Georgia team less scary than in recent seasons. Could we see an all-Big Ten Championship game on January 20? Can you stop asking rhetorical questions? Oregon will face the winner of the Ohio State-Tennessee First Round brawl and should the Ducks win that Quarterfinals contest, a potential date with Arizona State or Clemson or Texas would be next and none of those matchups would be easy. But Oregon is the team to beat in this field (+360) although DraftKings currently has the Ducks as co-Favorites with the Longhorns (+360).
The best and most fun bet you can make is on Group of 5 icons Boise State (65/1), the longest shots for some strange reason in the CFP Futures market. Should you bet $20 on the Broncos and they win, you would have a great story for the grandkids or the cat (if it listens) and $1,300 in your pocket on January 21. Anyway, like in Indiana vs Notre Dame game, two of the biggest handicapping factors seem to be the Weather (too cold for the kids from Texas?) and the strength of schedule (PSU has played Oregon, Ohio State, Wisconsin, USC, UCLA, and Illinois while SMU has only played BYU and Clemson—and lost to both of them). With that in mind, this SMU vs Penn State NCAAF pick will look at the Home team and suggest shopping for the best number. As of now (Wednesday afternoon), the Nittany Lions were solid 8.5-points Favorites everywhere. With such a strong defense and the big Homefield edge here, Penn State is the logical choice.
Kevin’s Pick: Penn State -8.5