Tulane vs Florida Prediction 12/20/2024
| What: | Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl |
| When: | Friday, December 20, 2024 at 3:30 pm EST/12:30 am PST |
| Where: | Raymond James Stadium (Tifway 419 Bermuda Grass), Tampa, Florida |
| Tulane vs Florida Line: | Florida -13 |
| Total: | 49.5 |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Tulane vs Florida Preview
Tulane (9-4, 7-1 in AAC) faces Florida (7-5, 4-4 in SEC) in the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl on Friday afternoon at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. The Green Wave were oh-so-close to making the inaugural College Football Playoff (CFP), but their loss to Army in the AAC championship burst their bubble and now they have to play here in this meaningless Bowl game in the Sunshine State on the same day that the CFP kicks off. Someone please send them a fruit basket. The Green Wave are 3-2 in their last 5, beating Charlotte by 31 (34-3), Temple by 46 (52-6), and Navy by 35 (35-0) before losing to Memphis by 10 (34-24) and then that crushing defeat to the Black Knights by 21 (35-14). The Gators are also 3-2 in their last 5, but lost 2 to CFP participants Georgia (24-20) and Texas (49-17) before bouncing back with wins over LSU by 11 (27-16), Ole Miss by 7 (24-17)—to become Bowl eligible—and rivals Florida State by 20 (31-11).
Tulane May Just be Going Through the Motions Here
Tulane (9-4-0, 7-5-0 O/U) had one of the best ATS records in FBS this season, but this team has to be feeling hollow—a lot like MWC school UNLV—about coming so close to making the CFP only to wonder what might have been after having the best season in program history. Dreams die quickly in 2024. The Green Wave (+373 Moneyline) are led by QB Darian Mensah (2,723 Passing yards, 22 TD, 6 Interceptions), RB Makhi Hughes (1,372 Rushing yards, 15 TD, 5,3 ypc), and WR Mario Williams (940 Receiving yards, 5 TD, 17.4 ypc) and Tulane averages a healthy 37.2 ppg (#14) behind 205.4 Rushing yards a game and 215.8 Passing yards per game (#82). LB Tyler Grubbs (59 Tackles) and the Green Wave defense allows just 19.7 ppg (#17). The reason this line is so high is because the starting QB Mensah is in the Transfer Portal and will be headed to Duke next season with another signal caller in the Portal—Ty Thompson—saying he will start vs the Gators. DE Matthew Fobbs-White (Batlor) and DL Parker Petersen (Wisconsin) are also in the Portal while DB Calen Ransaw may opt-out of the game. With what could have been on their mind and so many guys possibly not playing, Tulane is now just a green ghost of the team that we saw and grew to respect this Fall.
Tulane Betting Trends
- The Green Wave are 8-2-0 SU in their last 10
- Tulane is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games overall
- The Green Wave went 5-1 ATS their 6 games on the Road
- The Over is 9-5 in First Half of last 14 Tulane games (+3.55 Units, 23% ROI)
- Tulane is 7-9 in 16 Bowls and lost last year to VT in Military Bowl (41-20)
Florida Looks to Snap 3-Game Bowl Loss Streak
After winning 3 straight Bowl games (2016-2019), Florida (8-4-0 ATS, 6-6-0 O/U) has lost its last 3 Bowl appearances, falling to Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl in 2020 by 35 (55-20), to UCF by 12 in this Gasparilla Bowl in 2021 (29-17), and falling to Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl last season by 27 (30-3). The Gators (-522 Moneyline) have been in 49 Bowls including this one and have gone 24-24. From 1991 to 2012, Florida appeared in 22 straight Bowl games. The Gators head in here with a number of Injuries to players on defense, three DL and a TE in the transfer Portal, and 4 potential opt-outs but WR Elijhah Badger (789 Receiving yards, 4 TD, 21.3 ypc) and DT Cam Jackson (37 Tackles) both said they will play. QB DJ Lagway (1,610 Passing yards, 11 TD, 7 Interceptions), RB Jadan Baugh (603 Rushing yards, 7 TD, 5.1 ypc) and RB Montrell Johnson Jr. (593 Rushing yards, 6 TD, 5.9 ypc) have been productive but Johnson may opt out in Tampa on Friday.
Florida Betting Trends
- Florida is 3-0 SU/ATS in its last 3 games overall
- The Under is 3-0-0 in the last 3 Gators games after 3 straight Overs
- The Gators have allowed 17 points or less in their last 3 games
- The Under is 5-3 in Florida’s last 8 games
- Florida is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games overall
Tulane vs Florida Prediction
In the last 6 opponents Florida has faced a gauntlet of SEC terror—including the 3 conference teams playing in the College Football Playoff (Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee)—and three other very talented teams in Kentucky, LSU, and Ole Miss. And going 3-3 against those 6 is why this team is here now. There is no conference in all sports as tough as the SEC. So combined with the strength of that schedule, all of the key Tulane players who will miss and may miss this Bowl and you see this double-digit Point Spread. The line here opened at (Florida minus) 11.5 and now sits at 13 to 13.5 in most shops. This Tulane vs Florida NCAAF pick will look to back the SEC side full of pride against an apathetic AAC side who was blown out by Army—who was blown out by Navy—by 21 points in the do-or-die conference title tilt and hope that Johnson decides to play.
Kevin’s Pick: Florida -13