Western Kentucky vs James Madison Game Prediction
What: | Boca Raton Bowl |
When: | Wednesday, December 18, 2024 at 5:30 EST/2:30 PST |
Where: | FAU Stadium (Celebration Bermuda Turf Grass), Boca Raton, Florida |
Memphis vs West Virginia Line: | James Madison -7 |
Total: | 51.5 |
TV: | ESPN |
Western Kentucky vs James Madison Preview
Western Kentucky (8-5, 6-2 in Conference USA) meets James Madison (8-4, 4-4 in Sun Belt Conference) in the Boca Raton Bowl in the Sunshine State in the first of a Bowl doubleheader on Wednesday. The Hilltoppers had a hard skid to end their season, going 2-3 over the last 5, beating New Mexico State (41-28) losing to Louisiana Tech (12-7) and Liberty (36-21), topping Jacksonville State in the Regular Season finale in Bowling Green (19-17) and then losing to Jacksonville State in the rematch in the Conference USA Championship Game last weekend as the Gamecocks had 562 yards of Total Offense to get their sweet revenge in Sweet Home Alabama. After James Madison won 3 straight against Southern Miss (32-15), Georgia State (38-7), and Old Dominion (35-32), the Dukes proceeded to lose their last 2 Regular Season games, falling to Appalachian State (34-20) and Marshall (35-33, 2 OT).
Western Kentucky Has Been Impressive in Bowl Games
Since moving up to Division I, Western Kentucky (7-6-0 ATS, 6-7-0 O/U) has played in 10 Bowl games and amassed an impressive 7-3 record, winning its last 3 over the past 3 years (2021, 2022, 2023) in extremely high-scoring games (97, 67, and 73 points). In those 3 wins, the Hilltoppers have averaged 47.0 ppg, so with the Total in this one at 51.5, it’s hard to imagine backing the Under, especially after WKU (+220 Moneyline) gave up so many yards (and points) in its last game. The Hilltoppers are led on offense by QB Caden Veltkamp (2,806 Passing yards), RB Elijah Young (846 Rushing yards), and WR Kisean Johnson (855 Receiving yards). WKU had 21 players enter the Transfer Portal, including a number of starters, including QB Veltkamp, but this has happened before with this team and most players played under Head Coach Tyson Helton in the past and the word is that Veltkamp will be playing.
Western Kentucky Betting Trends
- The Hilltoppers are 3-1 SU in Bowl games under HC Tyson Helton
- Western Kentucky is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games overall
- The Under is 4-3 in the Hilltoppers last 7 games
- Western Kentucky has only averaged 14.8 ppg in its last 4 games
- The Hilltoppers have only 6 TD in their last 4 games overall
James Madison Without QB Alonza Barnett III
James Madison (6-6-0 ATS, 4-8-0 O/U) has been a strong Under team this year and the Dukes have won 2 national championships, taking the NCAA Division 1-AA crown back in 2004 with a 13-2 mark and winning the NCAA Division I (FCS) National Championship in 2016, going 14-1. James Madison lost its Head Coach Curt Cignetti and 13 players to Indiana—who will be playing Notre Dame in the Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs on Friday night in South Bend (ESPN, 8 EST/5 PST)—in last year’s Transfer Portal, but the program did a nice job of reloading and had a respectable season. But one issue here for the Dukes is that starting QB Alonza Barnett III (2,598 Passing yards) is injured (Leg) and backup Billy Atkins will reportedly get the start. RB George Pettway (880 rushing yards), and WRs Yamir Knight (567 Receiving yards, 4 TD) and Omarion Dollison (551 Receiving yards, 6 TD) have been very careful with the football and JMU (-250 Moneyline) comes in here with an impressive +1.42 TO Differential (#1 in FBS) behind Jacob Thomas (70 tackles) and the solid Dukes very formidable D.
James Madison Betting Trends
- James Madison has forced 26 TOs and lost just 9 (+17)
- Dukes backup QB Billy Atkins has 0 completed passes (0-for1)
- The Under is 6-2 in the Dukes last 8 games overall
- This is the first meeting ever between these 2 teams
- James Madison is 0-1 in FBS Bowls (Lost to AFA last year 31-21)
Western Kentucky vs James Madison Prediction
This is a hard handicap for many reasons. Western Kentucky has so many guys in the Transfer Portal, but they are expected to play while James Madison will likely go with a QB who hasn’t even completed a pass all season. And in the Totals market, the Hilltoppers last 3 Bowl games have averaged 74.3 ppg but the Dukes are a big Under team (8-4) who don’t commit TOs and play good defense. So what to do? Just because there a million Bowl games doesn’t mean you have to bet on everything and this Western Kentucky vs James Madison NCAAF pick suggests taking the Dukes on the Moneyline and using it in a Bowl games parlay combination, possibly with California (PK) vs UNLV in the following game, the Art of Sport LA Bowl (ESPN, 9 EST/6 PST). In the words of wise Las Vegas handicapper, bookmaker, and new Sports Gambling Hall of Fame member Nick Bogdanovich about the Bowl season and all the variables with opt-outs and the Transfer Portal, “Proceed with caution. There are landmines everywhere.” I’d lean to the Over if not for JMU having to use such an inexperienced QB in Boca Raton (79°, Thunderstorms).