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California vs UNLV Prediction 12/18/2024 College Football Picks

California vs UNLV Game Prediction

What: Art of Sports LA Bowl
When: Wednesday, December 18, 2024 at 9:00 EST/6:00 PST
Where: SoFi Stadium (Artificial Matrix Turf), Inglewood, California 
California vs UNLV Line: UNLV -3
Total: 48
TV: ESPN

California vs UNLV Preview

No. 24 UNLV (10-3, 6-1 in Mountain West) faces California (6-6, 2-6 in ACC) in the Art of Sports LA Bowl in Inglewood, California in the second of a Wednesday Bowl doubleheader after the Boca Raton Bowl (ESPN, 5:30 EST/2:30 PST). After playing in the Pac-12 Conference for so long, the Bears moved to the Atlantic Coast Conference this season—of course the ACC would need a school that’s on the Pacific coast—and Cal went 3-2 in its last 5 games, trouncing Oregon State (44-7), beating Wake Forest (46-36), losing to Syracuse (33-25), beating longtime rivals Stanford (24-21) and losing to SMU in the Regular Season finale (38-6). The Rebels went 4-1 down the stretch in their last 5, beating Hawai’i (29-27), San Diego State (41-20), San José State (27-16), and rivals Nevada to retain the Fremont Cannon (38-14) before losing a chance to make the first-ever College Football Playoff (CFP) by falling to Boise State in the MWC Championship Game (21-7). Here is my Prediction. 

UNLV May be Without Star WR White if He Opts Out

UNLV (7-6-0 ATS, 6-7-0 O/U) came one game away from being in the best position of the program’s life, but winning on the Blue Turf in Boise is like trying to beat Aquaman in Atlantis. Not gonna happen. After losing to Austin Jeanty and the Broncos, Head Coach Barry Odom announced he was leaving the program for the same job at Purdue. (Dan Mullen was hired as the rebels new HC). So for this Bowl game, WR Coach Del Alexander will serve as Interim Coach and it may be choppy for UNLV with OC Brennan Marion likely leaving as well. Toss in the possibility star WR Ricky White (1,041 Receiving yards) may opt out and the fact this team had an emotional vacuum with the loss to Boise State, and QB Hajj-Malik Williams (1,845 passing yards) and RB Jai’Den Thomas (846 Rushing yards) may be asked to do a lot on Wednesday evening.  LB Jackson Woodard has said he will play, but with Odom gone, White a question mark, and coming off the biggest loss in school history, it is hard to see UNLV really getting “up” for this game. And it’s in California.

UNLV Betting Trends

  • UNLV is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games overall
  • The Under is 3-0 in the Rebels last 3 and 5-2 the last7 games 
  • UNLV is 2-4-0 ATS in its last 6 overall
  • The Rebels have been Faves in every game this year but 3 (KAN, BOISE 2x)
  • UNLV is 3-2 in FBS Bowl games and have lost their last 2 (NO TX, KANSAS)

Cal Heads in With Many Questions at Quarterback

California (6-6-0 ATS, 4-7-1 O/U) saw starting Fernando Mendoza (3,004 passing yards, 16 TD, 6 Interceptions) enter the Transfer Portal and backup QB Chandler Rogers (117 Passing yards, 0 TD) injured himself in the Regular Season finale, so it may all come down to 3rd-string Ohio Transfer CJ Harris or 4th-string Freshman EJ Caminong behind Center. Head Coach Justin Wilcox has said that there’s a chance Rogers will be able to play, but Harris and Caminong have been taking most of the snaps in the practices for this (meaningless) Bowl game. OC Mike Bloesch was also let go, so the play calling in this one will be a group effort, and like UNLV (-149 Moneyline), Cal (+126 Moneyline) may decide to run the ball more than pass it. The Bears also have a number of Injury issues, including LG Sioape Vatikani, MLB Cade Uluave, and RB Jaivian Thomas (598 Rushing yards, 7 TD).

California Betting Trends

  • California is a not-so-profitable 0-3-0 ATS in its last 3 games
  • The Under is 2-0-1 in the Golden Bears last 3 games 
  • The Golden Bears have gone 1-2 in Bowl under HC Justin Wilcox
  • In 25 previous Bowl appearances, Cal has gone 12-12-1 
  • Cal is a disappointing 3-6 SU in its last 9 games overall

California vs UNLV Prediction

Last year Cal lost to Texas Tech in the Independence Bowl (34-14) while UNLV fell to Kansas in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl (49-36). With so many variables, this one is also a tough handicap and it may come down to if Ricky White plays for the Rebels and how good whoever the Golden Bears start at QB plays. This would be a much different game probably if (now former) UNLV hadn’t left for the Big Ten and Mendoza was in the saddle for Cal. But that will be the story with most of these Bowl games—coaching changes, players entering the Transfer Portal or simply opting out to avoid Injuries, and the players who are already Injured. And motivation will be a factor also. It’s safe to say that the only teams who really give a rat’s ass at this point in time are the 12 who made the CFP. This California vs UNLV NCAAF pick in Inglewood gives a slight lean to the Golden Bears who allowed just 22.2 ppg (Tied-#41) and are 1-0 SU lifetime vs UNLV, beating them 2 years ago in Berkley (20-14) in a game the Rebels covered ATS getting 12 points and which went Under the closing Total of 48 by 14 points. This one could be named the Apathy Bowl.

Kevin’s Pick: California Moneyline +126 (Caesars Sportsbook)

 

Scooter’s Coffee Bowl Prediction (Tuesday, 12/17)