On Sunday 12/15 the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will take on the L.A. Chargers at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.  This game features a match-up of the NFC South vs AFC West.  The NFC South is the #7 ranked conference in the NFL with a 40.4% winning percentage while the AFC West is the #2 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 57.7%.  The 7-6 Buccaneers are ranked #1 in the NFC South and the 8-5 Chargers are ranked #2 in the AFC West.  Last week the Buccaneers defeated the Raiders 28 to 13 in which they allowed the Raiders to gain a total of 286 yards of offense.  The Buccaneers picked up the win by 15 while out gaining the Raiders by 134 yards and having 1 more turnover.  Last week the Chargers lost against the Chiefs 17 to 19 while allowing the Chiefs to gain 298 yards of total offense.  The Buccaneers come into this game having played the #13th toughest strength of schedule in the NFL compared to the Chargers who have had the #29 easiest SOS in 2024.

The Buccaneers will go with Baker Mayfield who has a record of 7-6 as starting quarterback this season.  Baker Mayfield is ranked #4 for QB’s this week and he has completed 306 passes on 436 attempts and has averaged 256.1 yards per game with a completion percentage of 70.2% with 28 TD’s and 13 INT’s.  The Buccaneers running back Rachaad White is averaging 42.4 yards per game and 4.2 yards per rush attempt while scoring 3 TD’s.  Wide receiver #1 for the Buccaneers is Mike Evans who is ranked #66 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 4.3 receptions per game with a 13.7 yards per catch average to go along with 7 TD’s. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 63.2% which is 1.4% above league average and a receiving success rate of 60.3% which is 17.7% more than the league average for wide receivers in this statistical category.  The Bucs can win this game if they continue to put up the passing stats.  The Buccaneers offense has scored 363 points this season which is 22.3% more than the NFL average and have 18 turnovers which is an average of 1.4 turnovers per game.  Overall comparison of the offenses in this match-up shows that the Buccaneers have the advantage in 21 of 26 offensive statistics compared to the Chargers offense.  The Bucs are a fun team to watch.

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The Chargers will go with Justin Herbert who has a record of 8-5 as starting quarterback this season.  Justin Herbert is ranked #17 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 234 passes on 366 attempts and has averaged 212.6 yards per game with a completion percentage of 63.9% with 14 TD’s and 1 INT’s. His QBR is 3.7% below the league average.  The Chargers running back Gus Edwards is averaging 30.4 yards per game and 3.5 yards per rush attempt to go along with 2 TD’s. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 50.6% which is 0.8% more than the league average for this statistic.  For the Chargers at wide receiver #1 is Joshua Palmer who is ranked #118 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 2.5 catches per game and 16.4 yards per reception to go with 1 TD’s and 0 fumbles on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 60% which is 3.7% below league average combined with a receiving success rate of 56% which is 9.3% more than the wide receiver league averages.  The Chargers can win this one if they play stellar defense.  The Chargers defense have allowed 207 points so far this year which is 30.2% less than the league average for points allowed while creating 17 turnovers for an average of 1.3 turnovers per game which is 8.3% more than the rest of the league.  Overall defensive stat comparison shows that the Chargers are better in 20 of 24 defensive categories compared to the Buccaneers defense.  They really have been playing well.

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The best bet pick for this match-up is on the total.  We will be going Over 45 points.  My score projections for the total is 48.03 so this pick has a variance of 3.03 points.  The Buccaneers are 8-5-0 on Over\Under in 2024 overall and the over has come in 61.5% of their games with a +/- of 6.2 points.  The Chargers are an Under team, but in order to keep pace with the Buccaneers the Chargers will have to step up their game.  Herbert is a guy that is usually up for the challenge. Overall team efficiency stats have the Buccaneers ranked #13 while the Chargers come in ranked #6 in this week’s ranking list.  Let’s go over.

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!