On Sunday 12/15 the Pittsburgh Steelers will take on the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 48.3 °F with 6.7 mph wind and 52.999996 % chance of rain. The 10-3 Steelers are ranked #1 in the AFC North and the 11-2 Eagles are ranked #1 in the NFC East.  Last week the Steelers defeated the Browns 27 to 14 in which they allowed the Browns to gain a total of 300 yards of offense.  Last week the Eagles came out with the victory against the Panthers 22 to 16 while allowing the Panthers to gain 302 yards of total offense.  The Steelers come into this game having played the #31 easiest strength of schedule in the NFL compared to the Eagles who have had the #27 easiest SOS in 2024.

The Steelers will go with Russell Wilson who has a record of 6-1 as starting quarterback this season.  Russell Wilson is ranked #29 for QB’s this week and he has completed 138 passes on 213 attempts and has averaged 254.9 yards per game with a completion percentage of 64.8% with 12 TD’s and 3 INT’s. His QBR is 3.5% below the league average.  The Steelers running back Najee Harris is the #13th ranked RB this week and he is averaging 67.5 yards per game and 3.9 yards per rush attempt while scoring 5 TD’s. Wide receiver 1 for the Steelers is George Pickens who is ranked #33 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 4.6 receptions per game with a 15.5 yards per catch average to go along with 3 TD’s. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 61.1% which is 1.9% below league average and a receiving success rate of 48.9% which is 4.6% less than the league average for wide receivers in this statistical category.  The Steelers have a shot in this game if they can limit Saquon Barkley.  The rush defense for the Steelers is only allowing 91.5 rush yards per game and 12 rushing TD’s which is 23.4% lower and 4.8% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense stats.

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The Eagles will go with Jalen Hurts who has a record of 11-2 as starting quarterback this season.  Jalen Hurts is ranked #20 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 222 passes on 325 attempts and has averaged 200.2 yards per game with a completion percentage of 68.3% with 16 TD’s and 5 INT’s. His QBR is 10.2% above the league average and he has 3 fourth quarter comebacks and 4 game winning drives this season.  The Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is the #13th ranked RB this week and he is averaging 124.8 yards per game and 6.1 yards per rush attempt to go along with 11 TD’s and 2 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 56% which is 11.5% more than the league average for this statistic. For the Eagles at wide receiver #1 is A.J. Brown who is ranked #47 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 4.8 catches per game and 17.4 yards per reception to go with 4 TD’s.  The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 72.7% which is 16.7% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 68.2% which is 33.1% more than the wide receiver league averages.  The Eagles can win by getting to Russell Wilson especially in the red zone.  The Steelers already have to kick a bunch of field goals so just stay with the script.  The pass defense for the Eagles is only allowing 178.5 pass yards per game, 14 passing TD’s, and 8 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 18.2% above, 24.3% above, 11.1% below league averages respectively for pass defense.  It is critical that they contain Wilson while blitzing with his escapability.

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The pick for this match-up is the Steelers on the Spread at 5 with a variance of 4.5 points.  As the underdog, the Steelers are 5-0-0 on the Moneyline for the season and cover at an unbelievable 100% rate with a MOV of 7.8 points.  The Steelers are also 10-3-0 ATS this season overall and cover 76.9% with a MOV of 6.5 points.  Somehow the Steelers just continue to win, and I’ll keep backing those winning numbers.

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!