On Sunday 12/15 the New England Patriots will take on the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.  This game features a match-up of the AFC East vs NFC West.  The AFC East is the #6 ranked conference in the NFL with a 42.3% winning percentage while the NFC West is the #3 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 51.9%.  The 3-10 Patriots are ranked #4 in the AFC East and the 6-7 Cardinals are ranked #3 in the NFC West.  Last week the Patriots had a Bye which will give them some advantages when it comes to being well-rested and having additional time to game plan for the Cardinals.  Last week the Cardinals lost against the Seahawks 18 to 30 while allowing the Seahawks to gain 409 yards of total offense. The Patriots come into this game having played the #25 easiest strength of schedule in the NFL compared to the Cardinals who have had the #1 toughest SOS in 2024.

The Patriots will go with Drake Maye who has a record of 2-6 as starting quarterback this season.  Drake Maye is ranked #30 for QB’s this week and he has completed 172 passes on 256 attempts and has averaged 188.4 yards per game with a completion percentage of 67.2% with 11 TD’s and 8 INT’s. His QBR is 1% below the league average.  The Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson is the #11 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 55.9 yards per game and 3.7 yards per rush attempt while scoring 6 TD’s and having 6 fumbles. Wide receiver 1 for the Patriots is Ja’Lynn Polk who is ranked #229 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 1 reception per game with a 7.3 yards per catch average to go along with 2 TD’s. Talent is definitely lacking on this young team, but the defense has been playing quite well.  A look into their advanced team defense stats show that the Patriots defense blitzes at 25.6% with a QB hurry rate of 6.5%, a QB knockdown rate of 6.8% and a QB pressure rate of 18.7%.  If they can keep Murray in the pocket and shoot for a low scoring game, they may be able to pick up the win.

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The Cardinals will go with Kyler Murray who has a record of 6-7 as starting quarterback this season.  Kyler Murray is ranked #14 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 271 passes on 396 attempts and has averaged 220.2 yards per game with a completion percentage of 68.4% with 15 TD’s and 8 INT’s. His QBR is 21% above the league average and he has 3 fourth quarter comebacks and 3 game winning drives this season.  The Cardinals running back James Conner is the #12th ranked RB this week and he is averaging 66.4 yards per game and 4.3 yards per rush attempt to go along with 5 TD’s and 4 fumbles. The Cardinals tight end 1 Trey McBride is the #7 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 6.7 receptions per game while averaging 10.6 yards per receptions. For the Cardinals at wide receiver 1 is Marvin Harrison Jr. who is ranked #54 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 3.5 catches per game and 14.6 yards per reception to go with 7 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 52.3% which is 16.1% below league average combined with a receiving success rate of 47.7% which is 6.9% less than the wide receiver league averages.  The Arizona defense has been pretty darn good.  They have only allowed 289 points so far this year which is 2.6% less than the league average for points allowed while creating 13 turnovers for an average of 1 turnovers per game which is 16.7% less than the rest of the league.  Should be easy pickens vs the patriots (lack of) passing attack.

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Quick and Easy on this.  Let’s just go Under the total.  The Patriots offense has scored 221 points this season which is 25.5% less than the NFL average.  The offense for the Cardinals has scored 284 points so far this year which is 4.3% less than the NFL average.  There is a whole bunch of less going on so there should be an overall lack of scoring.  The Over\Under in the Cardinals games are 5-7-1 and the under has come in at 58.3% of the time with a +/- of -2.7 points. Under!

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!