On Sunday 12/15 the Indianapolis Colts will take on the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 54.8 °F with 5.8 mph wind and 3 % chance of rain. This game features a match-up of the AFC South vs AFC West.  The AFC South is the #8 ranked conference in the NFL with a 38.5% winning percentage while the AFC West is the #2 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 57.7%.  The 6-7 Colts are ranked #2 in the AFC South and the 8-5 Broncos are ranked #3 in the AFC West.  Last week the Colts had a Bye which will give them some advantages when it comes to being well-rested and having additional time to game plan for the Broncos. The Broncos Beat the Browns in epic fashion 41-32.  The Colts come into this game having played the #6 toughest strength of schedule in the NFL compared to the Broncos who have had the #28 easiest SOS in 2024.  When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Broncos have scored 25 red zone TD’s on 44 attempts which is 3.1% higher and 2.8% higher respectively than NFL red zone averages.

The Colts will go with Anthony Richardson who has a record of 5-4 as starting quarterback this season.  Anthony Richardson is ranked #32 for QB’s this week and he has completed 102 passes on 215 attempts and has averaged 167.9 yards per game with a completion percentage of 47.4% with 7 TD’s and 9 INT’s. His QBR is 18.2% below the league average and he has 2 fourth quarter comebacks and 3 game winning drives this season. The Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is the #9 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 80.4 yards per game and 4.3 yards per rush attempt while scoring 5 TD’s and having 3 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 40.3% which is 19.7% less than the league average for this statistic.  Wide receiver #1 for the Colts is Michael Pittman Jr. who is ranked #53 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 3.8 receptions per game with a 12 yards per catch average to go along with 2 TD’s. The Colts can win this game if they can keep pace with the Broncos.  The defense has to step up like they have been all year.  The Colts are great at forcing field goals instead of TD’s as they have only allowed 17 touchdowns this season.

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The Broncos will go with Bo Nix who has a record of 8-5 as starting quarterback this season.  Bo Nix is ranked #15 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 277 passes on 434 attempts and has averaged 218.6 yards per game with a completion percentage of 63.8% with 17 TD’s and 8 INT’s. His QBR is 5% below the league average and he has 2 fourth quarter comebacks and 2 game winning drives this season. The Broncos running back Javonte Williams is the #11 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 34.3 yards per game and 3.6 yards per rush attempt to go along with 4 TD’s and 2 fumbles.  For the Broncos at wide receiver 1 is Courtland Sutton who is ranked #20 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 4.8 catches per game and 13.4 yards per reception to go with 5 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season.  The Broncos can win this game on the backs of their Defense.  The Broncos advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 31.3%, QB hurry rate of 9.2%, QB knockdown rate of 10.6% and QB pressure rate of 27.1%.  I love the Blitz game!

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The Broncos have been on fire lately.  When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical and the Broncos have scored 25 red zone TD’s on 44 attempts which is 3.1% higher and 2.8% higher respectively than NFL red zone averages. The favorites have won each of the Broncos last 9 games, and guess who’s the favorite!  As the underdog, the Colts are 3-6-0 on the Moneyline for the season and cover at only 33.3% with a MOV of -4.1 points.  For the Broncos this year they are 10-3-0 ATS overall this year and cover at an unbelievable 76.9% with a MOV of 5.5 points.

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!