Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction 12/15/24 NFL

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction 12/16/24 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction

Game Time: 8:00 pm EST
Chicago Bears Line: +7
Minnesota Vikings Line: -7
Total: 48
TV: ABC

On Monday 12/16 the Chicago Bears will take on the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. This game features a match-up of two NFC North teams. The NFC North is the #1 ranked conference in the NFL with a 69.2% Win-Loss percentage. The 4-9 Bears are ranked #4 in the NFC North and the 11-2 Vikings are ranked #2.

Last Week’s Re-Cap

Last week the Bears lost against the 49ers 13 to 38 in which they allowed the 49ers to gain a total of 452 yards of offense. The Bears were outscored by 25 while being out gained by the 49ers by 290 yards.  Last week the Vikings came out with a victory against the Falcons 42 to 21 while allowing the Falcons to gain 496 yards of total offense. The Vikings won by 21 while being out gained by the Falcons by 63 yards but had 3 fewer turnovers against the Falcons.  The Bears come into this game having played the #19 easiest strength of schedule in the NFL compared to the Vikings who have had the #16 toughest SOS in 2024.

Can the Chicago Bears Win on Monday?

The Bears will go with Caleb Williams who has a record of 4-9 as starting quarterback this season.  Caleb Williams is ranked #18 for QB’s this week and he has completed 270 passes on 434 attempts and has averaged 211.2 yards per game.  He has a completion percentage of 62.2% with 16 TD’s and 5 INT’s. His QBR is 21.6% below the league average.  The Bears running back D’Andre Swift is averaging 57.1 yards per game and 3.8 yards per rush attempt while scoring 5 TD’s and having 2 fumbles.  Wide receiver #1 for the Bears is DJ Moore who is ranked #12 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 5.2 receptions per game with a 10.5 yards per catch average to go along with 5 TD’s. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 65.4% which is 5.9% above league average for wide receivers in this statistical category.  The Bears can win this week if they can limit turnovers and play excellent defense.  The defense for Bears has allowed 278 points in 2024 which is 6.3% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 20 turnovers which is an average of 1.5 turnovers per game which is 25% more than the league average.

Skill position players to watch on the Injury Report for the Bears this Monday.  RB D’Andre Swift is listed as questionable for this week’s game as of 2 days ago.  The latest update is Swift (groin) is listed as questionable for Monday’s contest against the Vikings.  There are 13 players on the Bears injury report for this week which is 10% less than the NFL average of 14.44 injuries and is 67.6% more than the Vikings.

Player Props:

  • Caleb Williams has not thrown an interception in the Bears last 7 games
  • D’Andre Swift has recorded three or more receptions in his last 7 games vs the Vikings
  • Keenan Allen recorded 86+ receiving yards in each of his five previous appearances vs the Vikings
  • Caleb Williams has recorded 27+ rushing yards in each of the Bears last 4 games
  • DJ Morre has recorded 6 or more receptions in each of the Bears last 4 games

Can the Minnesota Vikings Win on Monday?

The Vikings will go with Sam Darnold who has a record of 11-2 as starting quarterback this season.  Sam Darnold is ranked #6 on the QB Rankings this week and he has completed 264 passes on 386 attempts and has averaged 253.8 yards per game.  Sam has a completion percentage of 68.4% with 28 TD’s and 10 INT’s. His QBR is 0.3% below the league average and he has 4 game winning drives this season.  The Vikings running back Aaron Jones Sr. is averaging 68.7 yards per game and 4.5 yards per rush attempt to go along with 4 TD’s and 5 fumbles. The Vikings tight end #1 T.J. Hockenson is the #135 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 4.5 receptions per game while averaging 11.1 yards per reception. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 75% which is 3.6% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 58.3% is 4.5% more than the league average for these statistics.  For the Vikings at wide receiver #1 is Justin Jefferson who is ranked #9 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 5.8 catches per game and 15.6 yards per reception to go with 7 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 70.1% which is 13.5% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 57.9% which is 11.5% more than the wide receiver league averages.  The Vikings just need to use their talented wide receivers as much as possible.  It sounds easy…but I think it is.  Score and hold your opponent.  Swift is arguably the Bears best player on the field so holding him is the key to victory.  The Vikings rush defense is giving up only 87.2 rush yards per game so look out Mr. Swift.

No Skill players are on the injury report for the Vikings.  The Vikings have 7 players on their injury report which is 51.5% less than the NFL average of 14.44 injuries for this week and is 67.6% less than the Bears.

Player Props:

  • TJ Hockinson has recorded 26+ receiving yards in each of his last 24 home appearances.
  • Sam Darnold has recorded 235+ passing yards in each of the Vikings last 8 games
  • Aaron Jones has recorded 23+ receiving yards in each of his last 8 games
  • Jordan Addison has recorded 54+ receiving yards in each of the Vikings last 4 games
  • Aaron Jones has recorded 106+ rushing yards in each of his last 2 appearances

Mindy’s Pick: Vikings -7

This one may just get totally out of control.  The Vikings are just the more talented and more efficient team.  The Bears won’t get back into this one like they did on Thanksgiving vs the Lions.  The Bears offense has scored 254 points this season which is 14.4% less than the NFL average and have 10 turnovers which is an average of 0.8 turnovers per game.  The offense for the Vikings has scored 339 points so far this year which is 14.3% more than the NFL average and they have 19 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.5 turnovers per game.  The pick for this match-up is the Vikings on the Spread at -7 with a variance of 0.53 points.  Big offensive mismatch.  As the underdog, the Bears are 1-8-0 on the Moneyline for the season and cover at only 11.1% rate with a MOV of -5.2 points.  As the favorite, the Vikings are 8-2-0 on the Moneyline for the year and cover at an unbelievable 80% with a MOV of 6.4 points.  It goes on and on.  I don’t think I need to belabor the point…lay it!

 

About Mindy:

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!