Washington Commanders vs New Orleans Saints Prediction 12/15/24 NFL

Washington Commanders vs New Orleans Saints Prediction 12/15/2024 NFL Picks

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Washington Commanders vs New Orleans Saints

On Sunday 12/15 the Washington Commanders will take on the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. This game features a match-up of the NFC East vs NFC South. The NFC East is the #5 ranked conference in the NFL with a 50% winning percentage while the NFC South is the #7 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 40.4%. The 8-5 Commanders are ranked #2 in the NFC East and the 5-8 Saints are ranked #3 in the NFC South. Last week the Commanders had a Bye which will give them some advantages when it comes to being well-rested and having additional time to game plan for the Saints. Last week the Saints came out with the victory against the Giants 14 to 11 while allowing the Giants to gain 325 yards of total offense. The Commanders come into this game having played the #30 easiest strength of schedule in the NFL compared to the Saints who have had the #32 easiest SOS in 2024.

Can the Commanders Win Today?

The Commanders will go with Jayden Daniels who has a record of 8-5 as starting quarterback this season. Jayden Daniels is ranked #16 for QB’s this week and he has completed 252 passes on 362 attempts. Daniels has averaged 216.8 yards per game with a completion percentage of 69.6% with 15 TD’s and 6 INT’s. His QBR is 22.7% above the league average and he has 2 fourth quarter comebacks and 2 game winning drives this season. The Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. is the #9 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 64 yards per game and 4.6 yards per rush attempt while scoring 8 TD’s. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 52.2% which is 4% more than the league average for this statistic. Wide receiver 1 for the Commanders is Terry McLaurin who is ranked #21 for WR\TE’s this week. He averages 4.7 receptions per game with a 14.7 yards per catch average to go along with 9 TD’s and 1 fumbles on the season. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 74.4% which is 19.4% above league average and a receiving success rate of 62.2% which is 21.4% more than the league average for wide receivers in this statistical category. The Commanders have the advantage in 21 of 24 offensive statistics compared to the Saints offense and with Carr out for the Saints this one might get out of hand quickly.

More…

  • Jayden Daniels has recorded 22+ completions in each of the Commanders last 3 games
  • Terry McLaurin has recorded 73+ receiving yards in 6 of the Commanders last 7 games as favorites
  • Zach Ertz has recorded a touchdown in each of the Commanders last 3 games
  • Zach Ertz has recorded 31+ receiving yards in 7 of the Commanders last 8 games
  • Jayden Daniels has recorded 202+ passing yards in 7 of the Commanders last 8 games as favorites

Can the Saints Win Today?

The Saints lost Derek Carr last week to injury and Jake Haener is tabbed as the starting QB for this week. He is the ranked #51 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 14 passes on 29 attempts and has averaged 25.3 yards per game with a completion percentage of 48.3% with 1 TD’s and 0 INT’s. His QBR is 28.2% below the league average. Ew! The Saints running back Alvin Kamara is the #13 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 72.2 yards per game and 4.2 yards per rush attempt to go along with 6 TD’s and 1 fumble. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 51.6% which is 2.8% more than the league average for this statistic. For the Saints at wide receiver #1 is Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He is ranked #215 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL. He averages 1.3 catches per game and 22.4 yards per reception to go with 4 TD’s. The Saints may have a chance today because of home field advantage and maybe Alvin Kamara can get loose. Otherwise, it will be really tough with all of the injuries.
More…

  • Juwan Johnson has recorded 30+ receiving yards in each of the Saints last 3 games
  • Blake Grupe has made 2 or more field goals in each of the Saints last 6 home games
  • The Saints have won the first half in each of their last 5 games
  • Alvin Kamara has recorded 67+ rushing yards following a win
  • Alvin Kamara has recorded 35+ receiving yards in his last 4 games vs the NFC

Commanders (-7.5) vs. Saints – O/U 43.5 – Free Prediction for 12/15/24

The pick for this match-up is the Commanders on the Spread at -7.5. The Saints have failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 9 games and there is a 1% chance they can cover today. New QB and terrible offensive efficiency are setting up for certain disaster. The Commanders will win big.

Mindy’s Pick: Commanders -7.5

 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years. Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports. This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks. If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day. Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her moneyline predictions this year!!! Let’s get some wins!