On Sunday 12/15 the Miami Dolphins will take on the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.  This game features a match-up of the AFC East vs AFC South.  The AFC East is the #6 ranked conference in the NFL with a 42.3% winning percentage while the AFC South is the #8 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 38.5%.  The 6-7 Dolphins are ranked #2 in the AFC East and the 8-5 Texans are ranked #1 in the AFC South.  Last week the Dolphins defeated the Jets 32 to 26 in which they allowed the Jets to gain a total of 402 yards of offense.  Last week the Texans had a Bye which will give them some advantages when it comes to being well-rested and having additional time to game plan for the Dolphins.  The Dolphins come into this game having played the #26 easiest strength of schedule in the NFL compared to the Texans who have had the #18 easiest SOS in 2024.

The Dolphins will go with Tua Tagovailoa who has a record of 5-4 as starting quarterback this season.  Tua Tagovailoa is ranked #21 for QB’s this week and he has completed 240 passes on 325 attempts and has averaged 272.9 yards per game with a completion percentage of 73.8% with 17 TD’s and 4 INT’s. His QBR is 6.6% above the league average and he has 2 fourth quarter comebacks.  The Dolphins running back De’Von Achane is the #12 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 46.2 yards per game and 3.9 yards per rush attempt while scoring 4 TD’s and having 0 fumbles.  Wide receiver #1 for the Dolphins is Tyreek Hill who is ranked #15 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 5 receptions per game with a 11.8 yards per catch average to go along with 5 TD’s. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 67% which is 7.5% above league average.  This game is gonna come down to the run game.  The Texans rush defense is giving up 109.7 rush yards per game to go along with 7 rushing TD’s.  If The Dolphins can open up the pass with a run game, they have a great shot at winning.

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The Texans will go with C.J. Stroud who has a record of 8-5 as starting quarterback this season.  C.J. Stroud is ranked 10th on the QB Rankings for this week and has completed 272 passes on 430 attempts.  He has averaged 239.8 yards per game with a completion percentage of 63.3% with 15 TD’s and 9 INT’s. His QBR is 10.4% below the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comebacks and 2 game winning drives this season.  The Texans running back Joe Mixon is the #10 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 88.7 yards per game and 4.3 yards per rush attempt to go along with 11 TD’s and 0 fumbles. For the Texans at wide receiver #1 is Tank Dell who is ranked #64 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 3.6 catches per game and 12.6 yards per reception to go with 2 TD’s and 0 fumbles on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 59.7% which is 4.2% below league average.  At wide receiver #2 the Texans have Nico Collins.  He is ranked at #46 on the WR\TE’s ranks this week and averages 6.1 receptions per game and 17 yards per reception with 4 TD’s. He has a catch success rate of 68.1% which is 4.9% above league average and a receiving success rate of 58.3% which is 10.3% more than the WR league averages in the advanced receiving metrics.  Like I stated before, this game is going to come down to who can run the ball.  The rush defense for the Dolphins is allowing 105.6 rush yards per game and 12 rushing TD’s which is 11.6% lower and 4.8% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense stats.  If you can run, you can win.

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The pick for this match-up is the Texans on the Moneyline at -155 with a projected score of Dolphins 22.81 and the Texans 23.4.  It’s gonna be a close one!  As the favorite, the Texans are 8-2-0 on the Moneyline for the year and cover at an unbelievable 80% with a MOV of 3.3 points.  As the Away team, the Dolphins are 2-4-0 on the Moneyline in 2024 and are covering at only 33.3% with a MOV of -5 points.  Let’s take that Joe Mixan first touchdown scorer too!  It’s cashed in the last 4 games

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!