On Sunday 12/15 the Dallas Cowboys will take on the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.  The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 49.5 °F with 6.7 mph wind and 68 % chance of rain.  This game features a match-up of the NFC East vs NFC South.  The NFC East is the #5 ranked conference in the NFL with a 50% winning percentage while the NFC South is the #7 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 40.4%.  The 5-8 Cowboys are ranked #3 in the NFC East and the 3-10 Panthers are ranked #4 in the NFC South.  Last week the Cowboys lost against the Bengals 20 to 27 in which they allowed the Bengals to gain a total of 433 yards of offense.  Last week the Panthers lost against the Eagles 16 to 22 while allowing the Eagles to gain 292 yards of total offense.  The Cowboys come into this game having played the #10 toughest strength of schedule in the NFL compared to the Panthers who have had the #22 easiest SOS in 2024.

The Cowboys will go with Cooper Rush who has a record of 2-3 as starting quarterback this season.  Cooper Rush is ranked #33 for QB’s this week and he has completed 128 passes on 216 attempts. He has averaged 132.3 yards per game with a completion percentage of 59.3% with 7 TD’s and 3 INT’s. His QBR is 48.6% below the league average.  Oh Boy!  The Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle is the #11 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 60.9 yards per game and 4.8 yards per rush attempt while scoring 1 TD’s and having 2 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 54.6% which is 8.7% more than the league average for this statistic.  He has been a true bright side this season.  Wide receiver #1 for the Cowboys is CeeDee Lamb who is ranked #3 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 6.5 receptions per game with a 11.4 yards per catch average to go along with 5 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 64.9% which is 4.2% above league average.  Cooper Rush just has to play better.  He has all of the tools for success but needs to get through his progressions faster.  Overall comparison of the offenses in this match-up show that the Cowboys have the advantage in 17 of 25 offensive statistics compared to the Panthers offense.  All they have to do is execute.

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The Panthers will go with Bryce Young who has a record of 2-6 as starting quarterback this season.  Bryce Young is the ranked #31 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 158 passes on 268 attempts. He has averaged 157.2 yards per game with a completion percentage of 59% with 7 TD’s and 7 INT’s. His QBR is 14% below the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comebacks and 2 game winning drives this season.  The Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard is the #13 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 77.8 yards per game and 4.7 yards per rush attempt to go along with 8 TD’s and 4 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 56.3% which is 12.1% more than the league average for this statistic.  For the Panthers at wide receiver 1 is Xavier Legette who is ranked #75 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 3 catches per game and 11.1 yards per reception to go with 4 TD’s. At wide receiver #2 for the Panthers is Adam Thielen.  He is ranked at #133 on the WR\TE’s ranks this week and averages 4.7 receptions per game and 13.1 yards per reception with season totals with only 2 TD’s. He has a catch success rate of 75.7% which is 16.6% above league average and a receiving success rate of 62.2% which is 17.7% more than the WR league averages in the advanced receiving metrics.  The Good thing for the Panthers is that the Cowboys Defense is just Terrible.  Dallas has allowed 366 points in 2024 which is 23.4% more than the NFL average for points allowed.

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The pick for this match-up is going to be the Cowboys on the Moneyline at +125 with a projected score of Cowboys 21.13 and the Panthers 18.86.  The Panthers rush defense is giving up 170.1 rush yards per game to go along with 19 rushing TD’s which is respectively 42.3% higher and 50.8% higher than rush defense averages across the league.  And again, the bright spot for the Cowboys has been their running game so this looks to be a terrible match up for the Panthers.  It’s the battle of the bads.  The Cowboys are 5-8-0 on the Moneyline this season overall and cover at only 38.5% with a MOV of -7.5 points. The Panthers are 3-10-0 on the Moneyline in 2024 and are covering at only 23.1% with a MOV of -11.9 points.  As the Away team, the Cowboys are 4-2-0 on the Moneyline in 2024 and are covering at 66.7% with a MOV of 3.3 points.  At Home, the Panthers are 1-5-0 on the Moneyline for the season and are covering at only 16.7% of games with a MOV of -9.3 points.

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!