On Sunday 12/15 the Cincinnati Bengals will take on the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee.  The forecast for Sunday is 56 °F with 8.5 mph wind and 73 % chance of rain.  This game features a match-up of the AFC North vs AFC South.  The AFC North is the #4 ranked conference in the NFL with a 50% winning percentage while the AFC South is the #8 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 38.5%.  The 5-8 Bengals are ranked #3 in the AFC North and the 3-10 Titans are ranked #4 in the AFC South.  Last week the Bengals defeated the Cowboys 27 to 20 in a game in which they allowed the Cowboys to gain a total of 322 yards of offense.

The Bengals picked up the win by 7 while out gaining the Cowboys by 111 yards with 1 fewer turnover.  Last week the Titans lost against the Jaguars 6 to 10 while allowing the Jaguars to gain 291 yards of total offense.  The Bengals come into this game having played the #24 easiest strength of schedule in the NFL compared to the Titans who have had the #5 toughest SOS in 2024.  Overall, the Bengals have the advantage in 19 of 26 offensive statistics compared to the Titans offense.

The Bengals will go with Joe Burrow who has a record of 5-8 as starting quarterback this season.  Joe Burrow is ranked #1 for QB’s this week and he has completed 335 passes on 490 attempts and has averaged 285.1 yards per game.  He has a completion percentage of 68.4% with 33 TD’s and 6 INT’s. His QBR is 25.2% above the league average.  The Bengals running back Chase Brown is the #7 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 56.5 yards per game and 4.4 yards per rush attempt while scoring 6 TD’s and 2 fumbles.  Wide receiver #1 for the Bengals is Ja’Marr Chase who is ranked #1 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 7.2 receptions per game with a 14.2 yards per catch average to go along with 15 TD’s. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 73.2% which is 17.5% above league average and a receiving success rate of 63% which is 23% more than the league average for wide receivers in this statistical category.  All the Bengals do is score.  We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Bengals have scored 29 red zone TD’s on 42 red zone opportunities which is 19.6% higher than the league average.  The Titans are 20.5% lower, so there is a clear mismatch.

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The Titans will go with Will Levis who has a record of 2-8 as starting quarterback this season.  Yikes!  Will Levis is the ranked #28 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 173 passes on 272 attempts.  Will has averaged 182.7 yards per game with a completion percentage of 63.6% with 12 TD’s and 9 INT’s. His QBR is 48.5% below the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comebacks and 1 game winning drives this season.  The Titans running back Tony Pollard is the #13 ranked RB this week.  He is averaging 72.1 yards per game and 4.4 yards per rush attempt to go along with 4 TD’s and 1 fumbles. For the Titans at wide receiver #1 is Calvin Ridley who is ranked #45 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 3.8 catches per game and 14.8 yards per reception to go with 3 TD’s and 1 fumbles on the season. The Titans can win today only because of the Bengals and their horrible defense. The defense for Cincinnati has allowed 360 points in 2024 which is 21.3% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 14 turnovers which is an average of 1.1 turnovers per game which is 8.3% less than the league average.  That’s just a terrible defense.

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The pick for this match-up is the Bengals on the Spread at -5.  The Titans have lost each of their last 7 home games in December and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 6 home games.  As the favorite, the Bengals are 5-4-0 on the Moneyline for the season and cover at 55.6% with a MOV of 1.6 points.  As the underdog, the Titans are 2-7-0 on the Moneyline for the year and cover at only 22.2% with a MOV of -10.6 points.  The Titans rush defense is giving up 116.3 rush yards per game and that is too big of a number versus a versatile team like the Bengals.

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!