On Sunday 12/08 the Atlanta Falcons will take on the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota.  This game features a match-up of the NFC South vs NFC North. The NFC South is the #7 ranked conference in the NFL with a 39.6% winning percentage.  The NFC North is the #1 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 70.8%. The 6-6 Falcons are ranked #1 in the NFC South and the 10-2 Vikings are ranked #2 in the NFC North.  Last week the Falcons lost to the Chargers 13 to 17 in a game which they only allowed the Chargers to gain a total of 187 yards of offense. The Falcons lost even though they out gained the Chargers by 163 total yards but had 3 more turnovers than the Chargers.  The Vikings were victorious against the Cardinals 23 to 22 while allowing the Cardinals to gain 406 yards of total offense.  The Vikings won by just 1 point and while out gaining by the Cardinals by 133 total yards.  The Falcons come into this game having played the #17 easiest strength of schedule in the NFL compared to the Vikings with the #13 toughest.  It’s gonna be a fun one with Cousins back playing against his old team.

The Falcons Kirk Cousins is 6-6 as their starting QB this season and is ranked #5 for all starters coming into this week.   Kirk has completed 269 passes on 399 attempts and has averaged 254.3 yards per game with a completion percentage of 67.4%.  He also has 17 touchdowns but has a whopping 13 interceptions.  His QBR is 6.6% below the league average and has 3 fourth quarter comebacks.  The Falcons main running back is Bijan Robinson.  He is #12 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 73.8 yards per game and 4.4 yards per rush attempt while scoring 7 TD’s and having 0 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 58% which is 14.5% more than the league average for this statistic. The Falcons TE1 is Kyle Pitts who is the #87 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 2.9 receptions per game.  He’s averaging 14.1 yards per reception to go along with 3 TD’s.  Wide receiver 1 for the Falcons is Drake London who is ranked #9 for WR this week. He averages 5.8 receptions per game with 11.4 yards per catch average and has 6 TD’s.  When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a receiving success rate of 58.5% which is 28.9% more than the league average for wide receivers in this statistical category.  For the Falcons to win they need to get back to the basics of establishing a running game while limiting Kirk Cousin interceptions.

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• Kirk Cousins has recorded 273+ passing yards in each of his last 7 appearances at US Bank Stadium

• Tyler Allgeier has recorded 33+ rushing yards in each of the Falcons last 4 road games against the NFC

• Kyle Pitts has recorded 55+ receiving yards in 5 of the falcons last 6 vs the NFL

• Darnell Moody has recorded 86+ receiving yards in each of the falcons last 3 games vs the NFC

• Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in five of his last 7 games

The Vikings will go with Sam Darnold at QB who is 10-2 as a starter this season. Sam Darnold is ranked #10 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 242 passes on 358 attempts and has averaged 246 yards per game with a completion percentage of 67.6%.  Darnold has 23 TD’s and 10 INT’s on the season. His QBR is 4.2% below the league average and he has 3 game winning drives this season.  The Vikings running back Aaron Jones is the #12 ranked RB this week and is averaging 68.3 yards per game.  Jones averages 4.5 yards per rush attempt to go along with 3 TD’s and 5 fumbles. Yikes!  The Vikings tight end #1 is T.J. Hockenson.  He is the #150 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 4.6 receptions per game while averaging 11 yards per reception.  He is still looking for the endzone this season.  The advanced receiving stats put his receiving success rate of 54.8% is 13.4% more than the league average for these statistics.  For the Vikings at wide receiver 1 is Justin Jefferson who is ranked #11 for all WR’s this week in the NFL. He averages 5.7 catches per game and 15.3 yards per reception to go with 5 touchdowns. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 68% which is 0.2% below league average combined with a receiving success rate of 57% which is 25.6% more than the wide receiver league averages.  To win this game the Vikings need to remain efficient.  We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency, and the Falcons have scored 18 red zone TD’s on 36 red zone opportunities which is 19.6% lower, and 9.6% lower than league averages.  The Vikings have scored 23 red zone TD’s on 43 attempts which is 2.8% higher and 8% higher than NFL red zone averages. They really just need to play their game.

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• TJ Hockenson has recorded 50+ receiving yards in 13 of his last 16 games

• Justin Jefferson has recorded 81+ receiving yards in 9 of the Vikings last 11 games

• Jordan Addison has recorded 54+ receiving yards in each of the Vikings last 3 games

• Aaron Jones has recorded 93 rushing yards in 9 of his last 12 appearances

• Justin Jefferson has scored a touchdown in 9 of his last 15 home appearances

The offense for the Vikings has scored 297 points so far this year which is 7% MORE than the NFL average.  The defense for Atlanta has allowed 291 points in 2024 which is 4.9% MORE than the NFL average for points.  The Falcons pass defense is allowing 221.7 passing yards per game, 21 TD’s and is 17.6% BELOW league averages for passing defense.  So, basically, have a really efficient offensive team in the Vikings with a less than stellar Defense with Atlanta.   My Modeling still has the Falcons scoring some points in this one too so let’s go over the total.  This one should get into the 50’s with the little extra added incentive of Cousins trying to make a statement against his old team.

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!