Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 10/4/23

Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State Prediction 12/6/2024: College Football Picks

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Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State Game Info

What: Conference USA Championship Game
When: Friday, December 6, 2024 at 7:00 EST/4:00 PST
Where: AmFirst Stadium (ProGrass) Jacksonville, Alabama 
WKU vs Jacksonville State Line: Jacksonville State -5
Total: 57.5
TV: CBSSN

Western Kentucky-Jacksonville State Preview

Western Kentucky (8-4, 6-2 in Conference USA) meets Jacksonville State (8-4, 7-1 in Sun Belt West Division) in the 2024 Conference USA Championship Game from Burgess–Snow Field at AmFirst Stadium in Jacksonville, Alabama on Friday night where the Weather forecast is calling for 34° temperatures at kickoff time and below freezing (30°) conditions well into the game. You know Winter is coming when it’s below freezing in Sweet Home Alabama. These two teams just met last weekend in Week 14 play at Western Kentucky where the Hilltoppers won 19-17, in a game they covered ATS by 1 point (WKU -1) and which went well under the 62 Total. The Gamecocks had just 99 yards passing and the Home team has won the last 2 meetings in this new series. Jacksonville State played in the ASUN Conference in 2022 and was in the Ohio Valley Conference (OVC) from 2003 to 2020 and won the first meeting between the two last season here in Jacksonville. Conference USA is not a member of the Group of 5 conferences.

Western Kentucky Seeking Third C-USA Championship

Western Kentucky (7-5-0 ATS, 5-7-0 O/U) was made into pulp in its season opener at No. 5 Alabama (63-0) and then won 3 straight (EKU, MTSU, Toledo) before losing to Boston College before reeling off 4 more straight wins (UTEP, SHSU, KENN ST, NMSU) before losing two consecutive to Louisiana Tech (12-7) and Liberty (38-21). So the Hilltoppers (+165 Moneyline, Jacksonville State -200) needed to win last week vs. Jacksonville State in Bowling Green to get to this game as Sam Houston State also has a 6-2 record. The Hilltoppers are 2-1 in Conference USA Championship Games, beating Southern Miss in 2015 (45-28) and Louisiana Tech in 2016 (58-44) both at Home. UTSA beat WKU (49-41) at the Alamodome in San Antonio in 2021.

Western Kentucky Betting Trends

  • QB Veltkamp was 28-for-47 Passing vs JVST for 301 yards, TD
  • Western Kentucky is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 overall
  • The Under is 4-2 in the Hilltoppers last 6 games 
  • Western Kentucky has only averaged 15.7 ppg in its last 3 games
  • The Hilltoppers have only 5 TD in their last 3 games overall

Jacksonville State Hoping Home Site the Difference

Jacksonville State (6-6-0 ATS, 7-5-0 O/U) is making its first appearance in a Conference USA Championship Game and despite losing by 2 at Bowling Green last week, the oddsmakers have it right making the Gamecocks the solid chalks at Home in this spot. Both teams will head to Bowls no matter what happens here, but this will be the most important game of the season in both team’s minds and the frigid temperatures will definitely affect this clash. Jacksonville State is led by dual-threat QB Tyler Huff (2,003 passing yards, 17 TD, 9 Interceptions), who along with RB Tre Stewart (1,408 rushing yards, 20 TD, 5,9 ypc) give this team two great rushing options with Huff amassing 1,176 yards on the ground and scoring 13 TD himself (6.1 ypc). WRs Cam Vaughn (529 receiving yards, 3 TD) and Michael Petway (423 receiving yards, 3 TD, 18.3 ypc) give this team some options on the attack. The Gamecocks rank No. 3 in the nation Rushing (257.4 ypg) and No. 21 in Scoring Offense (35.4 ppg), so you can see why they are the Favorites here.

Jacksonville State Betting Trends 

  • Jacksonville State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
  • The Under is 4-2 in the Gamecocks last 4 games
  • The 17 points vs WKU last week was a C-USA season low
  • Jacksonville State is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
  • The Home team is 2-0 SU/ATS lifetime in this new series

Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State Prediction

This Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State NCAAF pick will look to the Totals market and the Under with both meetings averaging 36.5 ppg (JX ST 20-17 in 2023, WKU 19-17 in 2024), the recent 4-2 Trends to the Under for both Sides, and of course, that aforementioned cold Weather. The Gamecocks love to run the ball and Western Kentucky knows that, so this may evolve into a chess match with the Hilltoppers defense asked to slow down Huff and Stewart. The visitors will be intent on keeping the ball out of Jacksonville State’s hands—WKU won the Time of Possession battle last week, 36:27 to 23:33, and that may be its approach again here. The Hilltoppers settled for 4 FGs in the narrow win where every point mattered. The margins of Victory between these two have been 3 and 2 points so who knows who wins this one and how they do it. The side lean is to the hosts but let’s recommend the Total.

Kevin’s Pick: Western Kentucky-Jacksonville State Under 57.5