Marshall Thundering Herd vs East Carolina Pirates 9-9-23

Marshall vs Louisiana Prediction 12/7/2024: College Football Picks

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Marshall vs Louisiana Game Information

What: Sun Belt Conference Championship Game
When: Saturday, December 7, 2024 at 7:30 EST/4:30 PST
Where: Cajun Field (ProGrass) Lafayette, Louisiana 
Penn State vs Oregon Line: Louisiana -5.5
Total: 56.5
TV: ESPN

Marshall vs Louisiana Preview

Marshall (9-3, 7-1 in Sun Belt East Division) faces Louisiana (10-2, 7-1 in Sun Belt West Division) in the 2024 Sun Belt Conference Championship Game from Lafayette, Louisiana on Saturday night where the Weather forecast is calling for 55° temperatures at kickoff at Cajun Field. The Ragin’ Cajuns went 4-2 at Home in conference play and will have the advantage here playing in a familiar Site. The Thundering Herd head in winners of 6 straight with Marshall’s only Sun Belt loss coming at Georgia Southern on October 12. The Thundering Herd’s 2 non-conference losses came to Virginia Tech and Ohio State. Louisiana’s lone non-conference loss came to Tulane at Home on September 21. Despite the Sun Belt being in the Group of Five conferences with the AAC, MWC, MAC, and Conference USA, no team from this conference will be making the field of the first-ever College Football Playoff (CFP) tournament which kicks off on Friday, December 20 with a First Round game. The SBC is the only conference now who still uses divisions.

Marshall Seeks First Sun Belt Conference Championship

Marshall (10-1-1 ATS, 6-6-0 O/U) has been the best team to bet on ATS along with Arizona State and the Thundering Herd will be making their first appearance in a Sun Belt Conference Championship game after joining the conference after playing in Conference USA from 2005 to 2021. Marshall has been on a roll and is led by QB Braylon Braxton (1,431 passing yards, 17 TD, 2 Interceptions), RB AJ Turner (864 rushing yards, 6 TD, 8.3 ypc), and WR Christian Fitzpatrick (569 receiving yards) on offense and by LB Jaden Yates (109 tackles) and DB Josh Moten (4 Interceptions) on defense. The Thundering Herd have allowed 35 (ODU) and 33 points (JMU) in their last 2 games. Marshall is 0-2 lifetime vs Louisiana with both games being played at Home in Huntington, West Virginia.

Marshall Betting Trends

  • Marshall is 0-2 SU/ATS lifetime vs Louisiana (23-13, 36-21)
  • The Thundering Herd are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games
  • The back-to-back Over/Unders have alternated the last 6 (OOUUOO) 
  • Marshall’s only ATS loss came to ULM (28-23, MARS -10,5)
  • The Thundering Herd were just 4-9-0 ATS last season (30.8%)

Louisiana Has a Couple Big Advantages in This Spot

Louisiana (7-5-0 ATS, 6-6-0 O/U) has been to the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game 5 times but has only won it 1 time (2021), beating Appalachian State (24-16) at Home at Cajun Field. The Ragin’ Cajuns 2020 appearance vs Coastal Carolina was canceled as the Chanticleers had COVID-19 issues. The Mountaineers beat Louisiana in the 2018 and 2019 title tilts at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, North Carolina so the team hosting this game has gone a perfect 5-0 with the West Division winning the last 3 times. The Ragin’ Cajuns are led by QB Ben Woolridge (2,392 passing yards, 17 TD, 5 Interceptions), RBs Bill Davis (777 rushing yards, 9 TD) and Zylan Perry (621 rushing yards, 4 TD), and WR Lance LeGendre (733 receiving yards). Louisiana averages 35.8 ppg (#17) and gives up 22.8 ppg (Tied #44), so this is a very good and underrated FBS team.

Louisiana Betting Trends

  • Louisiana is 8-1 SU in its last 9 overall
  • The Under is 3-1 in the Ragin’ Cajuns last 4 games
  • Louisiana has scored 55, 51, and 37 points in its last 3 wins
  • The Over is 3-1 in the Ragin’ Cajuns last 4 games
  • Louisiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games overall

Marshall vs Louisiana Pick and Prediction

This Marshall vs Louisiana NCAAF pick will weigh many things into consideration, including the reality that the Ragin’ Cajuns are without injured starting QB Woolridge and have been using Senior Chandler Fields (793 passing yards, 5 TD, Interception, 77.8 QBR) to get them to this point over the last 3 games. The Weather shouldn’t be too much of a factor here, but the Site and the Sun Belt Conference history of all Home teams winning seems like a distinct handicapping edge. Toss in the fact that Louisiana has defeated (and covered ATS) vs Marshall in the previous 2 meetings and it seems like backing the Home team and laying the handful of points is the logical approach. With so many 5.5’s showing in the market, shopping around for a (minus) 5 may be wise, but with this game opening up at (Louisiana minus) 3.5 and Sharp money driving the line up, these 5’s may never exist. 

Kevin’s Pick: Louisiana -5.5