On Sunday 12/01 the L.A. Chargers will take on the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.  The 7-4 Chargers are ranked #2 in the AFC West and the 6-5 Falcons are ranked #1 in the AFC South.  Last week the Chargers lost against the Ravens 23 to 30, allowing the Ravens a whopping 389 yards of total offense.  The Chargers were outscored by 7, while being out gained by the Ravens by 104 yards from scrimmage and having 0 turnovers.  The Falcons, on the other hand, are coming in well rested off a bye week.

The Chargers will go with Justin Herbert who has a record of 7-4 as starting quarterback this season.  Justin Herbert is the 16th ranked QB this week.  He has completed 197 passes on 313 attempts, has averaged 218.5 yards per game, has a completion percentage of 62.9%, 13 TD’s and only 1 interception. His QBR is 8% below the league average and has 1 game winning drive this season.  The other highlight on offense has been freshman Ladd McConkey and his 63.5 yards per game with 4 TD’s.  The Chargers are 1st in points allowed this season and 6th in quarterback sacks.  Ten of the last eleven road games have gone UNDER the total so the Chargers can get this game by using that team defense and keeping the Falcons out of the endzone.

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• Justin Herbert has not thrown an interception in his last 9 games

• Justin Herbert has thrown 2 or more touchdowns in his last 10 games

• Quenton Johnston has scored a touchdown in his last 4 games

• Ladd McConkey has recorded 64+ receiving yards in his last 5 games

• Justin Herbert has recorded 29+ rushing yards in 4 of the Chargers last 5 games

The Falcons will go with Kirk Cousins who has a record of 6-5 as starting quarterback this season.  Kirk Cousins is ranked 5th on the QB Ranking this week.  Cousins has completed 245 passes on 360 attempts, has averaged 255.2 yards per game, has a completion percentage of 68.1%, 17 TD’s and 9 INT’s. His QBR is 3% below the league average and Kirk has 3 4th quarter comebacks and winning drives this season.  Kirk Cousins is also 10 older than the Chargers Quarterback Justin Herbert and is 8.1 years older than the NFL average.  Running back Bijan Robinson is not old in football years.  He has fresh legs and is on fire this season.  He averages 71.2 yards per game, 15.2 yards per attempt and has 6 touchdowns on the season.  The Falcons can win this game if they can play better team defense.  The Falcons are averaging 10.4% less than league average when it comes to overall team defense.  If they can move that number just a little bit, they will be ok.  Perhaps try blitzing more than 21%.

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• Drake London has scored a touchdown in 4 of the Falcons last 5 home games

• Kirk Cousins has thrown an interception in 6 of his last 7 home games

• Bijan Robinson has recorded 61+ rushing yards in 6 of his last 7 games

• Drake London has recorded 63+ receiving yards in his last 5 home games

• The Atlanta Falcons have won the first quarter in their last 5 games

The Chargers are just playing too well right now.  They come into this game with a ton of confidence by just losing to the Ravens by only a field goal.  The Falcons have failed to cover in their last 7 games to the AFC and in their last 7 as underdogs to the AFC.  Kirk Cousin will continue to do Kirk Cousins things, like throwing interceptions.  And Younghoe Koo will continue to do Younghoe Koo things like kicking wide left.  This will be another game where the Falcons will lose this game rather than the Chargers winning it.

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-1 on her moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!