San Diego State vs Houston Game Information

San Diego State vs Houston Preview

No. 6 Houston (4-2) meets San Diego State (3-2) in the 3rd Place Game of the Players Era Festival on Championship Day at the MGM Grand Garden in Las Vegas on Saturday. After the Cougars defeated Alabama in OT in their tourney opener (85-80), Houston lost to Notre Dame the following night (65-54) while the Aztecs beat Creighton in their opener (71-53) and then lost to Oregon in their second game (78-68). Oregon will face Alabama in the Championship Game later in the day (TNT, 9:30 EST/6:30 PST). Both Houston and San Diego State are 3-2 over the last 5 games.

San Diego State Getting Too Many Points vs Cougars?

San Diego State (1-3-0 ATS, 1-3-0 O/U) are big +575 Underdogs in the Moneyline market here (Houston -850) and are getting 12.5 in the Point Spread Side market, and with the Total set at an oh-so-low 128.5 it seems grabbing the points would be the best approach at the betting window. But with just 1 ATS win for the Aztecs, this needs further scrutiny. SDS is led by G BJ Davis (15.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg), G Nick Boyd (13.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg), G Miles Byrd (11.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg), and G Wayne McKinney III (8.8 ppg), and this seems to be a team that only loses to quality Division I opponents, losing to Oregon—now in the Big Ten—Gonzaga earlier this 2024 NCAA Basketball season, and to defending national champions Connecticut in last year’s 2024 NCAA Tournament.

San Diego State Betting Trends

• San Diego State is 3-6-0 ATS in its last 9 lined games overall
• The Aztecs are 20-12 on the Moneyline in their last 32 (+6.45 Units, 6% ROI)
• The Under is 4-1 in San Diego State’s last 5 games
• SDS Team Over is 14-19 the last 33 games (-7.85 Units, -21% ROI)
• San Diego State is 12-21 ATS in First Half in its last 32 (-12.25 Units, -32% ROI)

No. 6 Houston Vulnerable Early On This Season 

Houston (3-3-0 ATS, 3-3-0 O/U) beat San Diego State by 2 points the last time they met, 67-65 in March 2018, so much has changed since these two programs met. The Cougars (32-5 SU, 17-18-1 ATS in 2023-24) only lost 5 games all of last year, but already have 2 setbacks this November. Most people expected them to be in the Championship Game of this tournament here in Sin City, but this is a very tough field. Houston saw sparkplug Jamal Shead head to the NBA Draft (Toronto Raptors), so LJ Cryer (13.5 ppg), J’Wan Roberts (10.2 ppg), Emmanuel Sharp (13.0 ppg), Milos Uzan (8.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg), Terrance Arceneaux (9.3 ppg), Mercy Miller (6.3 ppg), and Joseph Tugler (7.0 ppg, 5.7 rpg) will have to carry the Cougars torch this season.

Houston Betting Trends

• Houston is 3-1 ATS its last 4 overall
• The Cougars have been Favorites 10 straight games
• Houston was 17-18-2 ATS last season
• The Cougars are 30-6 in its L36 on the First Half Moneyline
• The Under is 3-1 in Houston’s last 4 games

San Diego State vs Houston Prediction

This San Diego State vs Houston free NCAAB pick will be to back a team who hung with mighty Gonzaga and is familiar with playing games in the city of Las Vegas. With such a low Over/Under and the Aztecs getting double-digits, backing the Total market seems too risky and the Cougars may just be glad to get out of the MGM Grand Garden with a win after losing in this tournament already and also to Auburn earlier this still young season. It is hard to tell how good this team can be without Shead, but losing a backcourt guy of his caliber is always a vacuum to teams. This matchup seems like a 4- to a 9-point game that may be decided in the last 5 minutes in Glitter Gulch. Winning a 3rd Place game is like getting a wallet for Christmas.

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Kevin’s Pick: San Diego State +12.5