SMU vs Cal Baptist Game Information

SMU vs Cal Baptist Preview

This opening round Acrisure Holiday Invitational game sees two 4-2 teams, SMU and California Baptist meeting in Palm Springs on Tuesday night. With both schools so poor ATS, this is a tough handicap and probably not a game to put much weight (money) on. In their last game, the Mustangs lost vs Mississippi State (84-79) in a game which saw the Bulldogs close as small 1-Point Favorites. Cal Baptist has alternated wins and losses the last 5 games, beating Eastern Washington (79-68), losing to UNCO by the same exact score (79-68), defeating LIU (90-77), falling to UCR (70-69), and beating Kennesaw State (88-84), so all of the Lancers games have been in a tight 1- to 11-point range. That could all change here.

SMU Now Turning into a Reputable Over Team? 

SMU (2-4-0 ATS, 5-1-0 O/U) has started the season off as a strong Over team with the Mustangs only Under (by 6.5 points) coming in an 81-70 loss at Butler on November 15 (157.5). SMU has been a team to bet against and a good one in the Totals market over its last 10. The Mustangs are led in scoring by star G Boopie Miller (17.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 6.2 apg), G Chuck Harris (13.8 ppg, 3.0 apg), C Samet Yigitoglu (11.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg), G BJ Edwards (9.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.0 apg), F Yohan Traore (9.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg), G Kario Oquendo (8.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg), F Matt Cross (8.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg), and G Keon Ambrose-Hylton (7.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg), so this team goes 8 deep and can get scoring and rebounding from a number of different places.

SMU Betting Trends

• SMU has gone 2-8 ATS in its last 10 overall
• The Over is 6-1 in the Mustangs last 7 games
• SMU is 0-3 SU/ATS its last 3 true Road games (this is Neutral Site)
• The Mustangs were ATS favorites in their opening 5 before Underdog vs MSU (-1)
• SMU has not won consecutive ATS games since last season

Cal Baptist Starts Year With Just One ATS Cover

Cal Baptist (1-5-0 ATS, 5-1-0 O/U) has started off the 2024-25 NCAA Basketball season as one of the worst ATS Teams, with just 1 Point Spread win—in its last game vs Eastern Washington, winning outright as a 7-Point Home Underdog (79-68)—but before that it was all carnage for those betting on the Lancers with six straight ATS losses dating back to the last game of last season. G Dominique Daniels (19.5 ppg, 3.0 apg), G Martel Williams (12.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg), F Kendal Coleman (12.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg), and F AJ Braun (9.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg) are the nucleus of this Western Athletic Conference (WAC) team. Cal Baptist was one of the worst D-I teams ATS last season, going 11-20-0 (35.5%).

Cal Baptist Betting Trends

• Cal Baptist is 12-25-0 ATS in its last 37 games (32.4%)
• The Lancers have alternated Overs/Unders their last 5 (OUOUO)
• Cal Baptist is 11-22 ATS its L33 (-13.10 Units, -36% ROI)
• Cal Baptist is 2-8-0 ATS in its last 10 overall
• The Lancers are 13-20 on the First Half Moneyline last 33 (-13.35 Units, -21% ROI)

SMU vs Cal Baptist Prediction

These two teams are strangers to each other and the secret to this handicap seems to be the depth of the SMU bench and the fact that Cal Baptist hasn’t faced any tough opposition yet. One could make the argument that the Lancers haven’t played any tough teams in ages, with the two conference meetings against Grand Canyon and a non-conference game at Oregon last December 12 maybe the three hardest matchups in the last year. SMU, on the other hand, has already played Butler (Big East) and Mississippi State (SEC) and are much more battle-tested playing in the ACC, which it recently joined after being in the AAC (2013-2024), Conference USA (2005-2013), WAC (1996-2005), and legendary Southwest Conference (1918-1996). Schools seem to now jump conferences as much as players jump schools in the transfer portal This SMU vs Cal Baptist prediction and free NCAAB pick will back the Mustangs who are better from long-range, deeper, and play stronger teams, so a 15- to 18-point win seems likely in the Coachella Valley.

Kevin’s Pick: SMU -10