Oregon State vs Boise State 11/29/24 Game Information

Oregon State vs Boise State Preview

No. 12 Boise State (10-1, 7-0 in MWC) didn’t look that great at Wyoming last weekend, but the Broncos are still likely just one win away from making it impossible for the committee to deny the Broncos a spot in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoffs (CFP) which kick off on December 20 and run through January 20. On Friday in an early start, Boise welcomes Oregon State (5-6) to the Blue Turf for the last game of the Regular Season. With a win, the Beavers can become Bowl eligible, while a win for the hosts means a shot at a national championship for a non-Power 4 conference school. Heading into Tuesday’s new CFP rankings (ESPN 8 ET/5 PT), the Broncos would actually get a First Round bye and host a Home game as the best Group of Five champion. With so many good teams losing in Week 13 (Indiana, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Colorado, Alabama, BYU), the Broncos are still in a pretty good position but a loss here on Black Friday on the Blue Turf to Oregon State could be deadly.

Oregon State Can Make a Bowl With a Win in Boise

Oregon State (3-8-0 ATS, 6-5-0 O/U) has been a good team to fade ATS, and seeing the 19.5-Point Spread here makes me think the number is a little high until I remember what’s at stake—the Site, Ashton Jeanty still dreaming about the Heisman Trophy and how hard it has been for the beavers to score points lately. Oregon State had scored 0, 13, 7, 25, and 37 in 5 straight losses before exploding on Washington State in Week 13 and winning the Pac-2 (now) with a 41-38 win at Home. The Beavers have 41, 12, and 25 in their last 3 at Pulliam but just 0 and 7 their last 2 on the Road. Two TDs seem like tops for the visitors here while Boise State should get 5, so a 35-14 score seems close to what the Point Spread and Total say.

Oregon State Betting Trends

• Oregon State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7
• The O/U has alternated the last 5 in the series (UOUOU)
• Oregon State is 2-4 SU vs MWC opponents
• The Beavers have covered 4 straight vs Boise State 
• Oregon State is 3-10 ATS its last 13 (-8.00 Units, -56% ROI)

Boise State Has Struggled with Oregon State

Boise State (6-4-1 ATS, 7-4-0 O/U) may run rampant against teams from its Mountain West Conference (MWC) but teams in, or who were in the Pac-12, can cause this team some problems. Case in point, Oregon, who handed Boise State its only loss this year. And in the last three meetings in this series, Oregon State has won twice, and if the Beavers (+754 Moneyline) could find a way to upset Washington State, maybe they can win here and ruin the Broncos (-1376 Moneyline) dreams? RB extraordinaire Ashton Jeanty (2,062 rushing yards, 27 TD, 7.5 ypc) and Boise State have now won 8 straight games since losing to the Ducks in Week 2. 

Boise State Trends

• Boise State is 5-2-1 ATS in its last 8 games overall 
• The last 3 Boise State-Oregon State meetings were in Oregon
• Boise State is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 vs Oregon State
• Jeanty has rushed for at least 127 yards in every game this season
• Boise State is 1-4 ATS lifetime vs Oregon State

Oregon State vs Boise State Pick and Prediction

Oregon State has scored at least 24 points vs Boise State in the last 4 meetings (24, 38, 24, 43) and after scoring so many in Week 13 vs Washington State, it seems backing the visitors and taking the 19.5 to 20.5 seems like the logical betting approach. Boise State will only care about winning and won’t want to wear out Jeanty (+650 to win Heisman Trophy, DraftKings; Travis Hunter -800) knowing it will need him for one, and hopefully more, CFP games come December. This Oregon State vs Boise State prediction and free NCAAF pick will back the Road team Beavers and take the points, but shop around for a 20 (or more) near game time.

Kevin’s Pick: Oregon State +20.5 (BetMGM)