| Game Time | 7:30 pm EST |
| Milwaukee Bucks Line | +2.5 |
| Miami Heat Line | -2.5 |
| Total | 222.5 |
| TV: | NBA TV |
In this Eastern Conference rivalry, the Milwaukee Bucks are hosting the Miami Heat. The Heat saw Jimmy Butler return to the lineup and won both games after his return. They are playing their third straight game at home. The Bucks are finally starting to roll after a disappointing start to the season, and have lost only once in their last seven games. The Bucks still remember the 4-1 first round elimination back in the 2023 playoffs by the Heat and are looking for payback.
Below is a detailed analysis for Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat game.
Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Prediction
Miami Heat Injury Report: Terry Rozier is out.
Milwaukee Bucks Injury Report: AJ Johnson and Khris Middleton are day-to-day.
Miami Heat Recent Form and Trends
The Heat have a 7-7 record this season and are sitting on the 5th place of the East. Miami is 7-7 against the spread and 8-6 in over/under. The Heat have a 3-3 home record, but just 2-4 against the spread, with a +0.2-point differential. The Heat are 3-1 in their last 4 games and 4-1 to the over in their last 5.
Miami is coming off a 123-118 win over Dallas, even though they did not shoot the ball very well, with just 43%. Miami had five players with 14+ points, led by Jimmy Butler with 33. Butler also added 9 rebounds and 6 assists.
Tyler Herro leads Miami in scoring with an average of 23.8 points, adding 5.3 rebounds and a team-high 5.1 assists. Jimmy Butler adds 19.2 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5 assists.
Milwaukee Bucks Recent Form and Trends
The Bucks have an 8-9 record this season and are sitting on the 6th place of the West. Milwaukee is 6-10-1 against the spread and 7-10 in over/under. The Bucks have a 1-6 road record, and are 2-5 against the spread, with a -8.1-point differential. The Bucks are 6-1 in their last 7 games, but are 3-5-1 against the spread in their last 9. Over is 4-2 in their last 6 games.
The Bucks are coming off a 125-119 win over the Hornets, as they held them into just 41% shooting from the field. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard led Milwaukee’s offense with 32 and 31 points respectively. Giannis also added 11 rebounds and 6 assists.
Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks both in scoring with 32.4 points and in rebounding with 11.9 per game, adding 6.4 assists per game. Damian Lillard adds 25.2 points, 4.6 rebounds and a team-high 7.6 assists.
Statistical Breakdown
Offensively, the Heat are averaging 111.9 points per game, which is 19th in the league. Miami shoots with 44.2% from the field (25th), and with 37.9% from beyond the arc (5th). Defensively, they allow 110.6 points per game, which ranks 8th in the NBA.
Offensively, the Bucks average 113.1 point per game, which is 16th in the league. Milwaukee shoots with 48% from the field (8th) and 37.4% from beyond the arc (10th). Defensively, they allow 112.9 points per game, which ranks 15th in the NBA.
The Heat are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings against the Bucks. Over is 8-2 in their last 10 meetings.
Prediction
In this Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Prediction, the Heat are coming as -2.5 home favorites. The Heat are a perfect 2-0 since Butler’s return and are playing their third straight home game. On the other hand, the Bucks are terrible on the road, having won only once in their seven road games this season. But Milwaukee is playing extremely well right now and I don’t want to be in front of them until they cool off. Taking a look at the total, both teams are 8-3 to the over combined in their last 11 games, and over has a strong trend in their recent meetings between them, with 8-2 in their last 10. The Bucks have scored 122+ points in three straight games, while the Heat have allowed 111+ points in three of their last four. Expect a high scoring game and take the over.
Nick’s Pick: Over 222.5