Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Virginia Tech Hokies Prediction 9/7/24 NCAAF Week 2 Pick Today

NCAAF Best and Worst ATS Teams

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NCAA Football Week 13 Review

Marshall, ASU, Tulane, ND Now the Best FBS Teams ATS 

Army had the best NCAAF Against The Spread (ATS) record after Week 12, but after the Black Knights lost SU/ATS to Notre Dame, Marshall snuck into the top spot with a 42-35 win vs Old Dominion, the Thundering Herd’s 5th straight victory. Three teams ended the week with 9-2-0 ATS records—Arizona State, Tulane, and Notre Dame—with the Sun Devils probably ruining BYU’s CFP hopes, the Green Wave idle, and the Fighting Irish ending Army’s perfect season. Tulane may still have a shot to make the first-ever CFP if it can beat Memphis in Week 14 and then top Army in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) Championship Game on Friday, December 6 (ABC, 8 ET/5 PT). It won’t come easy.

 

Minnesota got the money once again, with the Golden Gophers losing to No. 4 Penn State by 1 point, on a day that saw many CFP hopefuls suffer bad losses like No. 3 Indiana (Ohio State), No. 7 Alabama (Oklahoma), No. 9 Ole Miss (Florida), No. 14 BYU (Arizona State), No. 15 Texas A&M (Auburn), and No. 18 Colorado (Kansas). When the dust cleared, it looked like No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Texas, No. 4 Penn State, No. 6 Miami (Florida), No. 10 Georgia, No. 11 Tennessee, and No. 12 Boise State had all but locked up spots in the 12-team playoff, meaning there could now be 4 spots up for grabs with aforementioned No. 20 Tulane and No. 13 SMU suddenly feeling a lot better about their chances.

 

After play in Week 13 play, the College Football Betting Trends showed that SU Favorites were 597-194 (75.5%) with Home teams 514-278 (64.9%). In the ATS category, Favorites were 375-401-15 ATS (48.3%), with Away Favorites 113-133-6 ATS (45.9%) and Home Favorites sitting at 262-288-9 ATS (49.4%). Home Underdogs were 133-113-6 ATS (54.1%) while Road Underdogs were 268-262-9 ATS (49.4%).

 

Here are the best FBS teams ATS heading into Week 14:

Best FBS Teams ATS

  • Marshall 9-1-1 (90%)
  • Arizona State 9-2-0 (81.8%)
  • Tulane 9-2-0 (81.8%)
  • Notre Dame 9-2-0 (81.8%)
  • Minnesota 8-2-1 (80%)
  • Indiana 8-3-0 (72.7%) 
  • South Carolina 8-3-0 (72.7%)
  • Colorado 8-3-0 (72.7%)
  • Army 7-3-0 (70%)
  • Colorado State 7-3-0 (70%)
  • Duke 7-3-1 (70%)
  • Georgia Southern 7-3-1 (70%)
  • Illinois 7-3-1 (70%)

Arizona Back on Top as Best Fade As Horned Frogs Roll

On Saturday night, Arizona (4-7 SU, 2-6 in Big 12) was fried on the Road by TCU, 49-28, losing as 10.5-Point Spread Underdogs for their 9th ATS setback, the most in FBS and the Wildcats 6th ATS in the last 7. Arizona’s only cover in October and November came vs Houston last weekend in Week 12 in a 27-3 win as a 1-Point chalk in Tucson. The Wildcats are also 1-6 SU over that same span.

 

North Carolina pulls up as the 2nd worst team against the betting number after the Tar Heels lost SU/ATS at Boston College, 41-21, losing outright as 2.5-Point Road Favorites as NC lost ATS for the 5th time in the last 7. A group of 9 different teams are all tied with poor 3-8-0 ATS records including three teams used to being ranked in the Top 25 in Georgia, LSU, and Oklahoma State, as well as our favorite team to bet against, lovable Kent State. Only one school has a chance at getting to 10 ATS losses on the year next week, and it’s Arizona who host rivals Arizona State in the Duel in the Desert on Saturday November 30 in a game between the team with the second-best ATS mark against the team with the worst ATS record. Expect early money on the Sun Devils in that one. 

 

Here are the worst FBS teams ATS heading into Week 14:

Worst FBS Teams ATS

  • Arizona 2-9-0 (18.2%)
  • North Carolina 2-8-1 (20%)
  • Purdue 3-8-0 (27.3%)
  • LSU 3-8-0 (27.3%)
  • Georgia 3-8-0 (27.3%)
  • NC State 3-8-0 (27.3%)
  • FAU 3-8-0 (27.3%)
  • MTSU 3-8-0 (27.3%)
  • Oregon State 3-8-0 (27.3%)
  • Oklahoma State 3-8-0 (27.3%)
  • Kent State 3-8-0 (27.3%)

NCAAF Week 14 Early ATS Pick and Prediction 

Our Free ATS Pick from this weekly column for Week 14 is a strong one for Buffalo over Kent State in the MAC Regular Season finale for both (BUF -21.5, FanDuel). For the Golden Flashes, the team with the worst Total Defense in the land and winless in their last 20 SU, it will be their last time snapping up the chin straps in 2024 while the Bulls will be playing in a Bowl game after having a dismal 3-9 season in 2023. Kent State has been one of the best teams to bet against the last two seasons, so fading them one more time this trip around the Sun is the logical suggestion for Tuesday night (ESPN+, 7 EST/4 PST).

Kevin’s Pick: Buffalo -21.5