Hi there, it’s Rodd from Tony’s Picks coming at you. New Mexico State and Dayton here in college basketball action on Wednesday, November 20th, 2024.
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Defensive Battle Between Undefeated Teams
All right, let’s get into this action—a pair of undefeateds here. New Mexico State is off to a nice 3-0 start to the season, while Dayton is off to a 4-0 start.
When you look at what these two teams have been doing, they’ve been excelling on the defensive end of the floor. For New Mexico State, they’ve been holding teams to 32.3% field goal shooting and outrebounding teams by a big margin.
On the other side, Dayton has been solid defensively as well, holding teams to 38.3% field goal shooting and outrebounding them. Offensively, Dayton has been efficient, scoring on 49.3% of their field goals. They’re 4-0 on the money line and 2-1 against the spread. That one loss against the spread was due to a higher line they didn’t cover, but they still got the win.
Dayton is also 3-0 to the over, averaging 77.8 points per game. Meanwhile, New Mexico State, on the road in their lone contest, won 75-63. At home, they’ve been averaging 83.7 points per game.
Betting Insights and Final Thoughts
Now, looking at this line—it opened at 12.5 and has moved up to 13 or 13.5 in spots. I think that’s way too many points here. Both of these teams can play solid defense, and I believe we’re going to see a lower-scoring, defensive battle between them.
I like what I’ve seen from New Mexico State this season. Watch out—both of these teams are good. Each returned three players from last season’s starting roster, which accounts for 60% of their production from last year. This is going to be one heck of a basketball game.
I don’t want to lay 12.5 points with the Dayton Flyers. I think this New Mexico State team is better than what people—and at least the bookmakers—are giving them credit for. Take New Mexico State and grab the points they’re giving us.
It’s a bold play, but I think this is a single-digit win for Dayton, if they don’t outright get upset by New Mexico State in this one.
Thanks, everybody, for tuning in. I appreciate each and every one of you. Have yourself a wonderful Wednesday, and I’ll catch you on the next one!