Hi there, it’s Rodd from Tony’s Picks coming at you with Alabama and Illinois in the CM Newton Classic here on Wednesday, November 20th, 2024.
Just before we get to that college basketball action, I want to say hey, if you’re new to Tony’s Picks, welcome aboard! Glad to have you. Make sure you subscribe and give us a thumbs up—greatly appreciated!
Illinois vs Alabama Game Analysis
Alright, let’s get into this action between Illinois and Alabama. You look at both these teams—off to a good start. Illinois is off to a 3-0 start. This will be their first true road game, even though it is a neutral court.
For Alabama, this will be their fourth game of the season. They’re 3-1 on the season. Both these teams are playing some pretty good defensive basketball. Alabama is returning two starters, while Illinois is returning one starter. Brad Underwood and company have been coaching Illinois for a little while now, and I like what Illinois is bringing to the table. You know, I’ve been an Illinois fan for plenty of seasons.
Alabama definitely just wants to get out and run and gun—that’s what they do. They try to score and chase it down. Illinois is going to try to slow this down a little more and play some defense, holding teams to 35.1% field goal percentage. Meanwhile, Alabama also plays pretty good defense, holding teams to 35.2% at home. Even on a neutral court, Alabama holds teams to 38.6% field goal shooting overall.
Why the Under is the Play
For me, in this one, the total opened at 163.5 and has been bet all the way up. I see 167.5 in some spots. You know what? That’s just too many for me. I’m going to take the under. Looking at betting the under on neutral court teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 and the teams have two consecutive or more home wins—the under dating back to 1998 is 27-7.
Also, neutral court teams with totals between 160 and 169.5 and consecutive home wins, where the team had a strong winning record last season, are 22-4 to the under. So, in what people think is going to be a high-paced, high-scoring game? Nah, take the under. We’re going to get some defense played between Illinois and Alabama.
Also, Alabama lives and dies by the three. If they start hucking up bricks, we’ll still get a low-scoring game. Either way, we get the under in this one on Wednesday night.
Final Thoughts: Leaning Towards Illinois
Additionally, I lean towards Illinois plus the 7.5 points that this thing has shot up to. So, lean to Illinois plus the points, but I like the under as the play in this one on Wednesday night.
Should be a great basketball game in the CM Newton Classic. Have yourselves a great Wednesday, everybody! Appreciate each and every one of you. Have a good one. Catch you on the next one.