Hi everyone, welcome back to Tony’s Picks! I’m Kevin Thomas, here to give you a free NFL total investment winner for Sunday, November 17th.
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Chiefs vs. Bills
What we’re looking at here is the Chiefs and the Bills. This total is currently sitting around 46 points. The Bills are playing at home, and the Chiefs are coming off a bye week. It’s going to be a tough battle. A lot of sharp bettors I know are all over the Bills here, loving the idea of an undefeated team getting +1 or +2 points.
But I don’t care about the spread. I’m focused on the total of 46. Here’s why.
Defense Takes Center Stage
This Bills team has faced only one decent defense in the Texans and lost 20-23. They also played the Ravens, who I don’t think have a great defense, especially against the pass. Yet the Ravens held the Bills to just 10 points while scoring 35 on them.
I think the Bills’ defense will be highly motivated at home against Patrick Mahomes and the undefeated Chiefs—a team that always seems to knock them out in the playoffs. Honestly, I don’t think Andy Reid cares much about this game as long as they beat the Bills in the postseason.
Now, let’s talk about the Chiefs’ defense. I don’t understand why they don’t get the recognition they deserve. They are one of the best defenses in the league and a key reason why they’ve won two Super Bowls. It’s not all about Patrick Mahomes. Sure, Mahomes is great—he can make some magical throws, even behind his back—but this season, the defense has carried this team through injuries.
Offensive Matchups and the Final Verdict
Now, looking at the Chiefs’ offense, they’re getting some key players back. JuJu Smith-Schuster will be returning, and they’ll have Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney all on the field together. It’s going to be something special to see. However, I still believe this game will be won in the trenches.
Both teams have played a lot of sub-.500 competition lately. The Bills barely beat the Broncos on a blocked field goal. With that in mind, I think this total of 46 is way too high.
Let’s take the under 46 for my free winner.
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