NCAA Football Week 12 Review
Ball State Stays as Top Dog on Best FBS Over Team Heap
Ball State remains the best Over team in FBS (8-1-1), after the Cardinals lost 51-48 at Buffalo in a Tuesday night MACtion game which went Over the closing Total (56.5) by 43.5 points. Iowa and Texas both have 8-2 records to the Over, Sunshine State schools Miami (Florida) and Central Florida are both at 7-2-1, while Maryland sits at 7-2-0, and New Mexico State makes the list now with a 6-2-1 Over mark.
A MAC team and the Longhorns making the Over list isn’t a big surprise, but Iowa—the worst Over team in the nation with Hawkeyes Unders going a profitable 12-2 (85.7%) last season—is a big shocker. There are 15 teams who have 7-3-0 Over records after Week 12 play including Navy, Toledo, Western Michigan, and BYU who were all involved in Unders in their last games, the Cougars suffering their first loss to Kansas, 17-13.
In the FBS Totals market, Overs are 341-347 in non-OT games (49.6%) with the Over now at 21-8 when FBS games have gone to OT (72.4%) with 2 OT games in Week 12 going Under to buck the trend. Overall, Overs are 362-355 (50.5%).
Here are the best Over teams heading into Week 13:
Best FBS Over Teams
- Ball State 8-1-1 (88.9%)
- Iowa 8-2-0 (80.0%)
- North Texas 8-2-0 (80.0%)
- UCF 7-2-1 (77.8%)
- Miami (Florida) 7-2-1 (77.8%)
- Maryland 7-2-0 (77.8%)
- New Mexico State 6-2-1 (75.0%)
Houston, We Have Another Under Here…
Houston went to 9-1-0 Under in the Total market after losing at Arizona, 27-3 in a Big 12 meeting, which went 16.5 points under the closing number in Tucson on Friday night for the Cougars third straight game going Under. Houston hosts Baylor in Week 13 (Nov. 23), and closes out with BYU in Week 14 (Nov. 30).
Florida State, Mississippi, and Georgia Tech are the next best Under teams this season, and all three scored 0 points in Week 12 as the Seminoles, Rebels, and Yellow Jackets all had Bye weeks. In Week 13, FSU will host Charleston Southern (1:30 ET), Ole Miss will be at Florida (ABC, 12 ET), and Georgia Tech will host NC State at at Bobby Dodd Stadium (Shaw Legion NXT Synthetic Turf) in Atlanta on Thanksgiving (ESPN, 7:30 ET) in a game where the Total has opened at 54.5.
Appalachian State also enjoyed a Bye week and the Mountaineers will host James Madison (8-2, 4-2 in Conference) at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, North Carolina in Week 13 on Saturday in a huge Sun Belt Conference game for the Dukes (ESPN+, 2:30 ET). There are 11 D-I teams with 7-3-0 Under records.
Here are the best Under teams heading into Week 13:
Best FBS Under Teams
- Houston 9-1-0 (88.9%)
- Florida State 8-2-0 (80.0%)
- Mississippi 8-2-0 (80.0%)
- Georgia Tech 7-2-1 (77.8%)
- Appalachian State 6-2-1 (75.0%)
- Washington 8-3-0 (72.7%)
NCAAF Week 13 Totals Pick and Prediction
Every single Toledo (7-3 Over) Home game has gone Over the Total this season, and with Ohio coming to the Glass Bowl (FieldTurf) in Toledo, on Thanksgiving Eve (Wednesday; ESPN2, 7 ET/4 PT), looking for some points to go with your sweet potatoes and pumpkin pie shouldn’t be a problem. Oddsmakers have opened the Total for this MAC game at 50.5 (TOL -2.5), and with the recent series Trends showing that the Over has won and pushed in the two games in Toledo with 57 points`(Push) and 83 points (61) being scored, your free NCAAF pick and Ohio University vs Toledo prediction in the Totals market is obviously for another Over here. The Weather forecast (weather.com) for Glass City on Wednesday night is currently calling for Rain, Temperatures between a brisk 47° and 55° with 14 mph Winds, so great to watch at home on your TV but somewhat challenging if you are a fan or a player.