2023-24 NCAAB Totals Season Review
The 2024-25 NCAA Basketball season has tipped off and the months of November and December can be the best time to try to make profits betting on this sport as conference play hasn’t started yet and there are a number of great non-conference mismatches as well as a number of tournaments. While it’s still too early to determine who are the best teams in the Totals market, now is the ideal time to look back at who were the best Over and Under teams in College Basketball last season.
Heading into the games of Saturday, November 16, four teams had started 4-0-0 to the Over (Charleston Southern, North Florida, Wisconsin, SC Upstate) with 23 schools sitting with 3-0-0 record, still way too early to call any of these metrics real Trends. Such a small sample size as the cat always says. North Florida was also a perfect 4-0 ATS. And there were two teams who started 0-4-0 to the Under (SIU-Edwardsville, Vermont) with 12 others at 0-3-0, including our two-time defending champions Connecticut.
Wright State Finishes as Best Over Team, Arkansas No. 2
Four College Basketball teams ended up with Over records of 70% or better last season, Wright State (Horizon League), Arkansas (SEC), Alabama (SEC), and Austin Peay (ASUN) with Kentucky (SEC) finishing at 69.7% to the Over, meaning that three of the best Over teams came from the Southeastern Conference and all of the top five had campuses east of the Mississippi River.
The best Over teams since 2020 have been Eastern Washington (73-46-2, 61.3%), Northern Colorado (70-44-3, 61.4%), and Denver (72-39-2, 64.9%)—all with campuses west of the Mississippi River. Assuming -110 odds, a bettor must win 52.4% of his or her bets to break even, so if blindly backing teams to go Over or Under every game in any sport, can often be an exercise in futility. Choosing the right spots and getting the amounts loom larger in the long run, but from the ATS point of view, backing Connecticut and fading Pacific in NCAAB has stood the test of time.
Here were the best Division I NCAA Basketball Over teams from last season:
2023-24 Best NCAAB Over Teams
- Wright State 23-7-0 (76.7%)
- Arkansas 24-8-1 (75.0%)
- Alabama 27-10-1 (73.0%)
- Austin Peay 22-9-1 (71.0%)
- Kentucky 23-10-0 (69.7%)
- Wisconsin-Milwaukee 23-10-0 (69.7%)
- Illinois 26-12-0 (68.4%)
- Iowa 23-11-0 (67.7%)
- Air Force 20-10-1 (66.7%)
- Nebraska 22-11-1 (66.7%)
- Florida State 22-11-0 (66.7%)
Marist Best Team Under Team Last Year, Vermont No. 2
The eight teams with the best Under records in the 2023-24 NCAA Basketball season all came from schools who are from east of the Mississippi River so that either speaks to better defense or poor shooting right? Who knows. This is sports betting and anything can happen anywhere at any time and it’s the sportsbooks who set the Total for games and teams only care about winning, not whether or not they go Over or Under the Total.
Last year Marist earned the distinction of being the best Under team with the Red Foxes playing 22 Unders, 8 Overs and 1 Push in their 31 lined games. Marist plays in the MAAC and is based in Poughkeepsie, New York. The other seven came from the states of New York (LIU), Vermont (Vermont), Pennsylvania (Duquesne, Villanova), New Jersey (Rutgers), Louisiana (Southern), and Indiana (Evansville).
The best teams to bet Under the Total in College Basketball (D-I) since 2020 (in teams with over 100 results) have been Merrimack (69-43-0, 61.6%), Maryland Eastern Shore (48-21-1, 60,8%), and Cal Poly (67-47-1, 58.8%).
Here were the best Division I NCAA Basketball Under teams from last season:
2023-24 Best NCAAB Under Teams
- Marist 22-8-1 (73.3%)
- Vermont 24-9-0 (72.7%)
- Duquesne 25-10-1 (71.4%)
- Southern 20-9-0 (69.0%)
- Rutgers 22-10-0 (68.9%)
- LIU 19-9-1 (67.9%)
- Villanova 23-11-0 (67.6%)
- Evansville 23-11-0 (67.6%)
NCAAB ATS Pick and Prediction
We have looked at who the best Over and under teams were last NCAAB season, so let’s offer up a look-ahead Free College Basketball Totals pick in the next two weeks. Big Ten side Wisconsin (4-0 SU, 4-0 Over) is vs Central Florida on Friday, November 22 (CBSSN, 5 ET/2 PT) in the Greenbrier Tip-Off (Mountain Division) at Colonial Hall in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia in a good spot to bet another Badgers Over. Wisconsin games have gone Over by 40.5 points (AZ, 150.5), 25.5 (APP ST, 137.5), 1.5 (MTST, 144.5), and 5.5 (HC, 140.5). Once known as a team that ran a slow and deliberate offense, Wisconsin can now play a run-and-gun style. The Badgers were 23-13 to the Over last season (63.9%) and are now a 27-13 Over team in their last 30 games overall. When these two teams met last season, UCF won 70-68.