Penn State vs. Purdue 11/16/24 Game Information

Penn State vs. Purdue Preview

One of three Big Ten teams ranked in the top four in the latest College Football Playoffs (CFP) rankings, No. 4 Penn State (8-1, 5-1 in Big Ten) heads west to West Lafayette, Indiana to face Purdue (1-8, 0-6 in Big Ten) to face the Boilermakers in a what will be a blowout for the visitors with the Home team down so much this season. In their last game, the Nittany Lions manhandled new conference members Washington, 35-6 at State College in Week 11 while Purdue was shut out 45-0 by No. 2 Ohio State  at the Horseshoe. The Boilermakers have lost 8 straight after beating Indiana State in the season opener and are the only Big Ten school without a conference win.

Penn State Just Needs to Keep on Winning

Penn State (4-5-0 ATS, 2-7-0 O/U) always annihilates teams it is supposed to, but loses to the same usual suspects in the Regular Season (Ohio State, Michigan), thwarting any chances to play for a National Championship. But this season is different. Why? Teams like the Nittany Lions, Tennessee and Georgia can suffer one or maybe even two setbacks during the Regular season and still make the 12-team CFP which kicks off on December 20 and ends with the 2025 CFP National Championship on January 20, 25 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. QB Dew Allar (2,006 passing yards, 13 TF, 5 Interceptions), RB Kaytron Allen (63 rushing yards, 5 TD), and TE Tyler Warren (681 receiving yards, 4 TD) are No. 6 in the latest rankings and need to keep winning and have a couple teams above them lose in order to get an opening round Bye. As of now, the Nittany Lions would host No. 11 Ole Miss—a team it lost to last year in a Bowl game—with the winner moving on to play No. 3 BYU. But we all know a lot will happen between now and the Army-Navy game that traditionally ends the FBS Regular Season.

Penn State Betting Trends:

• Penn State has beaten Purdue 10 straight times
• The Under is 5-3-1 in the last 9 series meetings
• The Nittany Lions are 16-3-1 SU lifetime vs Purdue
• The Under is 6-1-0 in Penn State’s last 7 games
• Penn State is 4-0-1 ATS the last 5 series meetings at Purdue

Purdue Hoping to Snap Losing Streak to Penn State

Purdue (2-7-0 ATS, 5-4-0 O/U) has one of the worst ATS records in FBS and the Boilermakers have lost 3 in a row ATS, although two of those losses—both shutouts—came to the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams in the CFP, Oregon and Ohio State. The SEC has always been considered the best conference in College Football, and it still may be, but with the addition of Oregon, the Big Ten can now make a decent case for that distinction although the SEC adding Texas is another superhero in the alliance. One thing is for certain: the defending national champs (Michigan) call the Big Ten home. In losing its last three games, Purdue (18.0 ppg #127) has been outscored 106-20.

Purdue Betting Trends:

• Purdue is 2nd worst Home Scoring with 9.3 ppg (UMass worst)
• Boilermakers L2 SU Wins came vs Hoosier State schools (ISU, IU)
• Purdue is 6-15 ATS (28.6%) over the last 2 FBS seasons
• Boilermakers First Quarter Unders 6-3 last 9 (+3.45 Units, 32% ROI)
• Purdue is 0-4 ATS at Home its last 4 games at Ross-Ade

Penn State vs. Purdue Pick and Prediction

The big thing to think about in this Penn State vs Purdue prediction and free NCAAF pick, is how bad Purdue has been at scoring points in West Lafayette (9.3 ppg), the second lowest average in FBS behind Massachusetts. The Boilermakers have scored 20 (Northwestern), 0 (Oregon), 10 (Nebraska), and 7 (Notre Dame) in their last four at Home for a total of just 37 and an average of 6.2 ppg. Against a defense as strong as Penn State (14.0 ppg, #8), QB Hudson Card (1,114 passing yards) and the Boilermakers may have trouble getting on the scoreboard and Purdue has just scored one TD in three games vs CFP-ranked teams (Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame) with a date with another (rivals Indiana at Bloomington) in the not-too-distant future (Nov. 30). PSU wins by 33. 

Kevin’s Pick: Penn State -28.5