North Texas vs UTSA 11/15/24 Game Information

North Texas vs UTSA Preview

This Week 12 American Athletic Conference showdown between North Texas (5-4, 2-3 in AAC) and UTSA (4-5, 2-3 in AAC) should be a shootout with two really good QBs, the indoor confines of the Alamodome, and North Texas being one of the best Over teams in FBS. So when you see that 72.5 Total, you shouldn’t be too shocked. The Roadrunners last two games saw 80 and 91 points as UTSA defeated Memphis, 44-36 and lost at Tulsa, 46-45. Both teams here have lost 3 of their last 5, but North Texas has lost 3 straight, but all to decent teams (Army, 14-3, Tulane 45-27, Memphis 52-44). With these two teams a combined 15-5 to the Over and these two gunslinging QBs, the Totals market seems a safer look than choosing a side here.

North Texas to Snap 3-Game Losing Streak?

North Texas (4-5-0 ATS, 7-2-0 O/U) has gotten the early money in this game, but this one is a tossup. The Mean Green are led by QB Chandler Morris (2,087 passing yards, 26 TD, 10 Interceptions), RB Shane Porter (340 rushing yards, 2 TD), and WR DT Sheffield (56 receptions, 721 yards, 10 TD) and have become a fun team to watch. With a win here, North Texas can become Bowl eligible and besides the electric Sheffield (13/1 ypc), Morris has a plethora of other WRs to throw the pigskin to in Damon Ward Jr. (462 receiving yards, 4 TD, 17.8 ypc), Blair Conwright (373 receiving yards, 4 TD, 16.5 ypc), Dalton Canes (344 receiving yards, 2 TD, 13.2 ypc), and Wyatt Young (277 receiving yards, 2 TD, 21.3 ypc). As you can see from the gaudy Yards Per Catch (ypc) numbers of the Mean Green’s receiving corps, either these dudes are really fast or teams in the AAC are really bad at tackling. Or maybe both.

North Texas Betting Trends

• North Texas has had at least 347 Total Yards in the last 10 meetings
• The Over is 6-1 in the Mean Green’s last 7 games
• North Texas is 1-4 SU the last 5 meetings in San Antonio
• The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 UNT games overall
• North Texas lost 3 in a row after winning 3 in a row 

UTSA Needs a Win to Get to .500 in AAC, Overall

UTSA (3-6-0 ATS, 6-3-0 O/U) also has a pass-happy QB in Owen McCown (2,364 yards, 20 TD, 4 Interceptions), a good RB in Robert Henry (350 rushing yards), and a group of good WRs in Chris Carpenter (454 receiving yards), Willie McCoy (418 receiving yards, 3 TD, 19.3 ypc), Houston Thomas (391 receiving yards, 3 TD, 15.0 ypc), and Devin McCuin (279 receiving yards, 4 TD, 7.5 ypc). The Roadrunners have won the last 3 series meetings, racking up 421, 571, and 495 Total Yards, but both teams have won 5 of the last 10 with the Home teams going 7-3.

UTSA Betting Trends

• UTSA has won the last 3 series meetings (1-1-1 ATS)
• The First Half Over is 8-3 the last 11 Roadrunners games (+5.80 Units) 
• UTSA is 4-0 SU at Home this season, 3-1 ATS 
• The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 UNT games overall
• Sophomore QB Owen McCown has never faced North Texas

North Texas vs UTSA Pick and Prediction

This North Texas vs UTSA prediction and free NCAAF pick will lean on the Totals market and expect another high-scoring affair. Last year there were 66 points scored (UTSA 37 UNT 29), in 2022 (Conference championship game) there were 75 points (UTSA 48 UNT 27), in 2022 (Regular Season) there were 58 points (UTSA 31 UNT 27) and in 2021 there were 68 points (UNT 45 UTSA 23). With Morris and McCown and the AstroTurf Magic Carpet 2, expect a pinball-type game in primetime. The Mean Green have scored 43 TDs and average 36.6 ppg (#17) while UTSA has put up 32 TDs and average 29.3 ppg (#55). This one will be entertaining with both teams having good reasons to win and it might just go down to the last possession.

Kevin’s Pick: Over 72.5