NCAA Football Week 11 Review
Ball State Supplants Iowa as the Best FBS Over Team
It depends where you bet the Total and what number you got, but Ball State got credited with an Over win after a 27-21 loss at Miami (Ohio) in midweek Week 11 MACtion. Those betting the Over at the opening number (49.5) were losers and those who had it at 49, and 48.5 (BetMGM) also lost and anyone getting it at 48 (Caesars, bet365) pushed. But those getting the Total at 47.5 (BetRivers), 46.5 (DraftKings), or 45.5 (FanDuel) won their Over wagers.
Iowa was the best Over team heading into Week 11, but the Hawkeyes lost to UCLA, 20-17 in a game that went Under the closing 44.5 to 46.5 Totals, snapping a string of four straight Overs. What’s funny is that last year, Iowa was the worst Over team in the nation with Unders going a profitable 12-2 (85.7% ) in Hawkeyes games.
Seven teams are at 7-2-0 or 7-2-1 in the Totals market, hitting Overs at a 77.8% clip.
In the FBS Totals market, Overs are 314-320 in non-OT games (49.5%) with the Over 19-6 when FBS games have gone to OT (76.0%). Overall, Overs are 333-326 (50.5%).
Here are the best Over teams heading into Week 12:
Best FBS Over Teams
- Ball State 7-1-0 (87.5%)
- Iowa 8-2-0 (80.0%)
- UCF 7-2-1 (77.8%)
- Miami (Florida) 7-2-1 (77.8%)
- Maryland 7-2-0 (77.8%)
- North Texas (77.8%)
- Navy 7-2-0 (77.8%)
- Toledo 7-2-0 (77.8%)
- Western Michigan 7-2-0 (77.8%)
Houston Still the Best Under Team After the Dust Clears
Houston was 8-1-0 to the Under heading into Week 11 play, but the Cougars didn’t play this week so they stayed on top of the Unders heap—and the bottom of the Overs pile. Houston is at Arizona on Friday (FS1, 10:15 ET), hosts Baylor in Week 13 (Nov. 23), and closes out at No. 9 BYU in Week 14 (Nov. 30).
Utah had a chance to register its 8th Under win, with a 40.5 or 41 closing Total against BYU in the Holy War in Salt Lake City. But leading 21-19 (40 points and Under), the Utes saw the Cougars drive the length of the field in the last game of the day and saw Will Ferrin kick a 44-yard FG to win 22-21 and reward Over bettors with 3 seconds left and make Utah 7-2 to the Over. Who said College Football isn’t exciting? And the improbable win kept BYU alive in the CFP.
Here are the best Under teams heading into Week 12:
Best FBS Under Teams
- Houston 8-1-0 (88.9%)
- Washington 8-2-0 (80.0%)
- Florida State 8-2-0 (80.0%)
- Mississippi 8-2-0 (80.0%)
- Georgia Tech 7-2-1 (77.8%)
- Utah 7-2-0 (77.8%)
- Penn State 7-2-0 (77.8%)
- Illinois 7-2-0 (77.8%)
- James Madison 7-2-0 (77.8%)
NCAAF Week 12 Totals Pick and Prediction
Toledo (7-2 Over) has seen every one of its Home games go Over the Total this year and the Rockets have played two straight Overs, playing in a 68-point game in a 41-26 loss to Bowling Green and a 57-point affair in a 29-28 win at Eastern Michigan. Last year vs this week’s opponent Central Michigan, Toledo won 32-17, but the Total was 54.4, so the game at CMU stayed Under. And as a matter of fact the last five meetings against the Chippewas have gone Under, although they have seen 49, 55, 49 (OT), 47, and 56 points being scored.
But the Totals were set higher for Toledo during that span (54.5, 57.5, 53, 54.5, 54), so maybe there is some MACtion value to be found betting Toledo-Central Michigan Over 47.5 on Tuesday night (ESPNU, 7 ET/4 PT)? The Rockets will be rested and playing in primetime, but the weather forecast for Tuesday night is calling for a low of 34° and some chilly, near-freezing temperatures at the Glass Bowl (FieldTurf). Let’s take a chance and make a free NCAAF pick and Western Michigan vs Toledo prediction on the Over here with the first game on the betting board or Week 12 and 31-21 Toledo victory.