Fresno State vs Air Force 11/9/24 Game Information

Fresno State vs Air Force Preview

Fresno State (5-4, 3-2 in MWC) looks to keep its head above water when it travels to Colorado on Saturday night to meet Air Force (1-7, 0-4 in MWC) in a Mountain West Conference matchup. The Bulldogs didn’t play so well in their last outing, a loss to Hawai’i as a double-digit Favorite (21-20), so seeing the Flyboys on the schedule at this point in time is truly a welcome sight. Air Force continued to struggle and score points, but did beat the ATS in Week 10 when Army’s starting QB was a no-show at West Point in a 20-3 Cadets victory. After beating tiny Merrimack in the season opener, 21-6, the Falcons have proceeded to lose 7 straight games and have only topped 19 points once.

Fresno State Looks to Force a TO or Two Saturday Night

Fresno State (4-4-1 ATS, 3-6-0 O/U) has actually been very good forcing TO’s with the Bulldogs currently at +0.56 a game (#32), but translating those Fumbles and Interceptions into points can often be a different story. Fresno State is led by QB Mikey Keane (2,198 passing yards, 12 TD, 10 Interceptions), RB Elijan Gilliam (442 rushing yards, 7 TD), and WR Mac Dalena (40 receptions, 730 receiving yards, 5 TD), but has failed to be the explosive team forms season’s past as the 20 points last weekend vs the Golden Rainbow reveals. The Bulldogs rank No. 71 in the nation in Scoring Offense (27.8 ppg) and can thank a 46-point performance vs Sacramento State and a 48-point performance vs New Mexico for that number. Fresno State has lost to defending national champions Michiagn in the season opener, Washington State, UNLV, and Hawai’i, so a solid win here at AFA is necessary to stay above the .500 mark and qualify for a bowl game next month.

Fresno State Betting Trends

• Fresno State is just 1-3 SU vs Air Force
• All 4 series meetings have gone Over the Total
• The Under in Fresno State games is 6-3
• Fresno State is just 4-8 in the First Quarter spread in its last 12 games
• These two teams haven’t played since 2019 

Anemic AFA Offense Remains Stuck on the Runway

Air Force (1-7-0 ATS, 3-5-0 O/U) has dropped off much this season while fellow Service Academy schools Army and Navy have emerged into quality football programs and the big reason is the Falcons struggle on offense while the Cadets and Midshipmen have evolved solid scoring attacks. At Home, Air Force has been very disappointing, scoring just an average of 9.0 ppg, the second-worst total behind UMass (8.5). And out of 134 FBS teams, the Falcons rank dead last in Points Per Game (ppg) with 12.7. Not good. AFA is led by QB John Busha (5 interceptions, TD, 415 passing yards), RB Cade Harris (224 rushing yards, 4 TD), and WR Quin Smith (19 receptions, 221 yards, 11.6 ypc), three skill position players who have only accounted for 5 TDs all season so far.

Air Force Betting Trends

• Air Force is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 Regular Season games 
• The Falcons lone win came vs FCS side Merrimack in the season opener
• Air Force has scored 3 (2x), 6, and 7 (2x) points in 5 of its games
• The Falcons have lost 7 consecutive games SU
• Air Force is 0-9 in the First Quarter Moneyline its last 9 (-10.80 Units)

Fresno State vs Air Force Prediction 11/9/24

Although Fresno State is a somewhat schizophrenic FBS side, the Bulldogs are the Fresno State vs Air Force prediction and free NCAAF pick here simply because the Air Force offense is so suspect. With such a low Total here and now low temperatures at Falcon Stadium (38°F), both sides will realize that Winter is coming, so the big question is can Fresno State generate some points in the frigid conditions? It seems like the Bulldogs will get three or four TDs and a FG here with Air Force—the second worst team ATS with its lone cover last weekend—only being able to muster 10 to 14 with a 24-14 Bulldogs win being the worst case scenario for the visitors.

Kevin’s Pick: Fresno State -9.5