MMA locker room here, Mills Young with Tony’s Picks, and I’m going to go over this week’s UFC Fight Night card. We’ll see which fights finish and which go the distance. If you guys want my exclusive, premium picks—what I’m betting on for this card—all you have to do is get my 3-day package or buy my picks individually. I’ve got my MMA picks ready, locked and loaded for this week.
One of the fights I initially had on here got canceled—the Miles Johns vs. Cody Garbrandt fight—so that pick in the package is no longer available. But besides that, we’ve got some bets on this card, so let’s get it started.
How’d you guys do last week? Over here with our predictions, we went 8-5—not the best, but one of the underdogs we called definitely looked like the winner. Even the other fighter said in the post-fight interview, “Hey, I don’t think I should have won,” but it happens sometimes. Erin Blanchfield looked as advertised against Rose Namajunas, and Brandon Moreno put on a master class performance.
How’d you guys do out there? Let me know in the comments below. Let’s get started—this fight card is taking place at the UFC Apex, marking the 100th event there.
Melissa Mullins vs Klaudia Sygu?a
Melissa Mullins is taking on Klaudia Sygu?a. Mullins is a -250 favorite. She’s coming off a loss in her last fight and now faces an opponent stepping up in a big, big, big step up in competition. I mean, Sygu?a hasn’t really fought anyone notable; she’s a striker from Poland, and from what I’ve seen on her tapes, she doesn’t seem UFC-ready just yet.
That being said, I think Melissa Mullins will be able to take this fight to the ground and probably win inside the distance. The odds for the fight going over 2.5 rounds are set at -250, since female fights generally go the distance at a high rate, probably around an 82% clip. However, in this matchup, I believe Mullins can get the win inside the distance. I’m taking a shot on her to win inside the distance here.
So, with that being said, I’m betting on this fight not going the distance.
Tresean Gore vs Antonio Trocoli
The next fight is Tresean Gore taking on Antonio Trocoli. Gore is a -170 favorite, with Trocoli as the +142 underdog. The odds for over 2.5 rounds are set at +100, while the under 2.5 rounds is at -130.
Tresean Gore took some time off and is now training at a better gym, the MMA Lab. Overall, he’s a good fighter—there’s no single area he specializes in, but he has fast hands, solid wrestling, and good takedown defense. However, his cardio is still something to watch, as he hasn’t fought many times in the UFC. He came from The Ultimate Fighter, where he lost to Bryan Battle and later to Cody Brundage.
In this fight, he’s facing an opponent he should be able to beat. Trocoli is a Jiu-Jitsu specialist who made his UFC debut against Shermar Molle and was knocked out later in the fight. Trocoli is going to be the bigger, more physical fighter, but I think Gore is the overall better fighter here. I believe Gore can land a shot and win inside the distance in this one. I don’t think this fight will go to the scorecards, so I’m betting on this fight not going the distance in the second fight of the night.
Cody Stamann vs Da’Mon Blackshear
For the third fight of the night, we have Cody Stamann taking on Da’Mon Blackshear. Stamann is a +225 underdog, while Blackshear is at -270. The over 2.5 rounds is set at -425, and the under 2.5 rounds is at +300.
The lines have moved on this one, and I think this fight is going the distance. Both fighters usually end up going to a decision and the scorecards. Blackshear is coming off a knockout loss—he got knocked out in the first 30 seconds against Montel Jackson. Meanwhile, Cody Stamann has been coming off decision after decision.
Both of these guys like to grapple, wrestle, and be physical, but they’re not known for one-punch knockout power. Finishing ability isn’t something I rate highly in either of these fighters, so I like this fight to go to the scorecards. Blackshear should be able to get the win, but the price tag is way off. He should be around -160 at most—no way he’s a -300 favorite against Cody Stamann on this card.
So yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if this goes to the scorecards. I think Blackshear wins, but at that price tag? I’m not sure, man. This card is tough—some of these odds just don’t make sense. But hey, you still have to make bets and picks, so let’s keep it going.
Matthew Semelsberger vs Charles Radtke
In the next fight, we’ve got Matthew Semelsberger taking on Charles Radtke. Semelsberger is the underdog at +136, while Radtke is the favorite at -160. The odds for over 2.5 rounds are at -140, and under 2.5 rounds are at +110.
I think the dog is alive in this fight. As for the over 2.5 rounds, I’m not too sure about that at -140. I’ve seen Semelsberger get dropped before, and Charles Radtke was also dropped, but that was by Karo Parisyan. So, we’ll see how this fight plays out.
Semelsberger will be the taller fighter and has the reach advantage. I think he also has the finishing ability in this one. Radtke, on the other hand, has the wrestling advantage, and Semelsberger does struggle with takedowns.
I don’t know if this one is going the distance. I’ll take the plus money on this fight, as I think something could happen in the late second or third round with either of these fighters. So, I’m betting on the fight not going the distance in this one.
Gaston Bolaños vs Cortavious Romious
In the next fight, we have Cortavious Romious taking on Gaston Bolaños. Romious is -200 on the books, with Bolaños as the +170 underdog. The over 1.5 rounds is set at -170, and the under 1.5 rounds is at +135.
Romious is a wrestler who aims to take his opponents to the ground, control them, and go for the submission. Bolaños, on the other hand, is a striker who likes to throw spinning attacks. So, we’ve got a classic striker versus wrestler matchup here, and it could go either way.
Romious did get knocked out early in his UFC debut on the Contender Series, in the first round. Meanwhile, Bolaños has been submitted in two of his fights, and Romious is a strong submission specialist.
For this fight, I like betting on it not going the distance, and I’m also taking Romious to win.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Denise Gomes
All right, moving up the matchups on the card, we’ve got Karolina Kowalkiewicz taking on Denise Gomes. Gomes is a -530 favorite, with Kowalkiewicz as the +400 underdog. The over 2.5 rounds is set at -300, while the under 2.5 rounds is at +230.
In general, female fights tend to go the distance—you could almost blind-bet that. But Denise Gomes hits hard, and Karolina has taken plenty of hits in her career. I don’t think this one is going to the scorecards. I can see Denise Gomes winning inside the distance here, so I’m taking the plus money on the fight not going the distance.
Typically, I’d advise putting together a parlay with a few fights expected to go the distance to get a nice plus money price tag. But with Gomes’ finishing ability and Karolina’s durability, I’m not confident in this one going the distance. So, give me the fight not going the distance, and I think Denise Gomes wins inside the distance. That -500 price tag on Gomes is way off, though—I can’t recommend betting on her at that number. But you see where I’m leaning: the fight not going the distance.
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dusko Todorovic
Next up, we have Mansur Abdul-Malik taking on Dusko Todorovic. Abdul-Malik is a -390 favorite, while Todorovic is the +310 underdog. The over 1.5 rounds is at +140, and the under 1.5 rounds is at -145.
These books are putting out some good numbers, so if you’re looking for odds, check around. DraftKings, FanDuel, Bovada, Pinnacle, BetOnline—whatever’s available in your area—shop around for the best line. I’ve noticed this line varies a bit as we get closer to fight time.
For this fight, I like the under 1.5 rounds. I think Abdul-Malik’s finishing ability will show, as Dusko is someone who could get finished. Abdul-Malik brings a lot of intensity in the first round. Even if he slows down, there’s still a chance he could get finished early in the second round.
The under 1.5 rounds gives you some confidence, but if you can find an under 2.5, that’s ideal. You could parlay the under 2.5 with something else you’re confident about to really cash in. For me, 7 minutes is the threshold—by then, either a fighter holds on, or they start to break.
Luana Pinheiro vs Gillian Robertson
In the next fight, we’ve got Luana Pinheiro taking on Gillian Robertson. Robertson is the favorite at -395, with Pinheiro as the +310 underdog. The over 2.5 rounds is set at +120, and the under 2.5 rounds is at -150.
If you’ve been paying attention, women’s fights are usually chalked to go over, but this one is heavily chalked to go under at -150. I like this fight not to go the distance, and I see Gillian Robertson winning inside the distance—whether by ground-and-pound or submission.
That said, Pinheiro can strike, and in the first round, she’s definitely live. Don’t get it twisted—if Robertson can’t get her to the ground, Pinheiro could do serious damage on the feet. She hits hard, but her intensity drops after the first round. By round two, she slows down, looks tired, and takes her time before engaging, while in round one, she goes out there aggressively.
Robertson, being a submission specialist, has the edge for an inside-the-distance win. If you’re looking for a parlay piece, Robertson is a solid choice. But man, that price tag—minus 390 in this economy? It’s steep, but I think she gets it done.
Ricky Turcios vs Bernardo Sopaj
All right, the next fight on the card features Ricky Turcios taking on Bernardo Sopaj. Sopaj opened as a -170 favorite, but he’s now closed out to -350, which shows who they think is going to win. The over 2.5 rounds is at -230, while the under 2.5 is at +175. I think this one goes over 2.5 rounds.
Sopaj made his UFC debut against Fenix Oliveira, and he got finished later in the fight because he slowed down and gassed out. But he took that fight on short notice. Ricky Turcios usually goes to a decision—he’s a tough, durable fighter. I think this one does go to the scorecards, but I think Sopaj’s line got steamed way too high.
This fight could play out with Sopaj looking great in round one, giving you confidence, but in round two, it might get closer, with Turcios turning up the pressure. When Turcios turns up, he really turns up, so by round three, he could completely turn it around and take rounds two and three, raising his hand for the win.
I could see Ricky Turcios winning by decision, which is a nice little bet or play. He’s already a +280 underdog, which would probably yield good value. I like what Sopaj brings to the game, but betting-wise, you have to look at the numbers and play what you like. This week’s card doesn’t have odds or matchups that I feel fully confident in for straight bets, so I’ll be looking for different spots.
Gerald Meerschaert vs Reinier de Ridder
Speaking of spots, I like this one. Gerald Meerschaert is going to be taking on Reinier de Ridder. De Ridder is making his UFC debut from ONE Championship and is a -300 favorite, with Meerschaert as the +260 underdog. The over 2.5 rounds is at -110, while the under 2.5 rounds is at -120.
I don’t think this one is going the distance. I went back and forth on this, but I think De Ridder is going to win. This fight feels tailor-made to showcase his skills. However, GM3 (Gerald Meerschaert) always wins by submission if his opponent slows down, gasses out, or has cardio issues—something De Ridder has struggled with before in ONE Championship.
But listening to De Ridder, he’s saying he doesn’t just want to win; he wants to finish this fight and make a statement. Hearing that in the media gave me insight into his mindset. Earlier this week, I was leaning toward GM3 as the pick, and I even mentioned it live, but I’ve got to go with what I think and see in this matchup.
Meerschaert doesn’t throw any dangerous strikes that would put De Ridder in harm’s way, and I think De Ridder can get it done by taking him to the ground and submitting him. That’s how I see this one playing out.
Main Event: Neil Magny vs Carlos Prates
It’s main event time with Neil Magny taking on Carlos Prates. Prates opened as a -500 favorite, and he’s now at -800. Meanwhile, Neil Magny, who has the most wins in the welterweight division, is a +550 underdog. The over 2.5 rounds is at +145, and the under 2.5 rounds is at -188.
Carlos Prates has a 100% finish rate in the UFC—he’s finished all three of his opponents. He throws deadly knees to the body and head and strikes viciously. His nickname is “The Nightmare.” But folks, there’s no way I’d recommend parlaying or betting on Prates at that price. Magny’s a tough dog; he can clinch people up against the cage, and he’s fought the best of the best, including fighters like Prates. Did he win all of those? Maybe, maybe not. But he has the experience to surprise some people.
I think Carlos Prates will win inside the distance, but I’ll tell you right now, if this fight gets to round three, it’s a Neil Magny fight. That’s all I’m saying. Three minutes into round three, I guarantee Magny could be winning this fight by then.
The pick is Carlos Prates, and I do think he wins inside the distance. I don’t see this one going the distance, but those under 1.5 and under 2.5 bets feel a bit too tricky.
With that, we’ve covered the whole card! If you want more exclusive picks like this, you know what to do—check us out here at Tony’s Picks MMA Locker Room. Make sure to like and subscribe!