Free College Football Picks Week 11 Part 4-11/9/2024
Arkansas St vs. Louisiana College Football Pick Prediction 11/9/2024
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Arkansas St at Louisiana 5PM ET—Arkansas St drops to 5-3 following their 34-31 home defeat to Troy. The Redhawks gained 534 yards with 185 rushing for 4.4 yards per run. On defense they allowed 466 yards to the Trojans with 304 passing on 33 attempts. Jaylen Raynor completed 25 of 40 for 349 yards. He rushed for 71 yards. Louisiana improved to 7-1 with their 23-17 road win at Texas St. The Ragin Cajuns put up 423 yards with 171 rushing for 5 yards per run. On defense they allowed 378 yards to the Bobcats with 177 rushing for 4.4 yards per carry. Ben Wooldridge went 18 of 28 for 252 yards and a touchdown.
The Pick with the Explanation
Arkansas St against the Sun Belt has struggled with quarterback accuracy and efficiency. The defense in conference has been poor as the Redwolves allow 4.9 yards per run with 68% completions for 9.1 yards per pass attempt. Louisiana at home rushes for 5.1 yards a carry and throwing for 266 yards per game with 8.4 yards per pass attempt. Teams rush for 5.3 yards on the Ragin Cajuns bat home but have defend the pass well. The Redwolves were pounded at Texas St by 32 points. Play Louisiana -16.
Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico St College Football Pick Prediction 11/9/2024
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Western Kentucky at New Mexico St 6PM ET—Western Kentucky improved to 6-2 following their 31-14 home victory to Kennesaw St. The Hilltoppers put up 462 yards with 186 rushing for 5.2 yards per run. On defense they allowed 272 yards to the Owls with 96 passing on 26 attempts. Caden Veltcamp completed 17 of 22 for 276 yards with three touchdowns. New Mexico St is 6-2 with their 34-13 road defeat at FIU. The Aggies gained 246 yards with 216 rushing for 5 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 438 yards to the Panthers with 338 passing on 27 attempts. Brandon Nunez went 5 of 15 for 12 yards and a pick. Santino Marucci in relief was 2 of 4 for 18 yards and a pick.
The Pick with the Explanation
The Hilltoppers offense in CUSA is delivering 39 points per game with a passing attack that averages 74% completions and 11.2 yards per pass attempt. They limit conference foes to 3.9 yards per run and 16.5 points per game. New Mexico St is getting poor quarterback play against CUSA with 45.6% completion rate for 4.9 yards per pass attempt. Their defense in conference surrenders 4.9 yards per rush with 7.9 yards per pass attempt. They are getting outscored by 21 points per game against Conference USA teams. Play Western Kentucky -18.
UCF vs. Arizona St College Football Pick Prediction 11/9/2024
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UCF at Arizona St 7PM ET—UCF improved to 4-5 following their 56-12 home victory to Arizona. The Knights put up 602 yards with 308 rushing for 7 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 261 yards to the Wildcats with 5 rushing yards on 25 carries. Dylan Rizk completed 20 of 25 for 294 yards with three touchdowns. He rushed for 55 yards. Arizona St sits at 6-2 with their 42-21 road win at Oklahoma St. The Sun Devils gained 529 yards with 225 rushing for 4.6 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 270 yards to the Cowboys with 84 rushing for 3.5 yards per carry. Sam Leavitt went 20 of 29 for 304 yards and three touchdowns.
The Pick with the Explanation
ASU is putting up good numbers in Big 12 games on offense with 5 yards per run with 8 yards per pass attempt. They allow 4.2 yards per run with 6.1 yards per pass attempt against the conference. UCF allows 282 yards passing against the Big 12. The offense puts up 251 yards with six yards a carry against the conference along with 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The Knights have upgraded the quarterback position. UCF is 4-1 to the over on the road as an underdog of seven or fewer points. ASU is 6-2 to the over at home facing teams that average 425 yards per game or greater. Play UCF and Arizona St over 55.5.
Oklahoma St vs. TCU College Football Pick Prediction 11/9/2024
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Oklahoma St at TCU 7PM ET—Oklahoma St fell to 3-6 following their 42-21 home defeat to Arizona St. The Cowboys put up 270 yards with 84 rushing for 3.5 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 529 yards to the Sun Devils with 304 passing on 29 attempts. Alan Bowman completed 17 of 30 for 175 yards with a touchdown and interception. TCU drops to 5-4 with their 37-34 road defeat at Baylor. The Horned Frogs gained 444 yards with 105 rushing for 3.3 yards per run. On defense they allowed 501 yards to the Bears with 257 rushing for 5.8 yards per run. Josh Hoover was 25 of 34 for 333 yards with two touchdowns.
The Pick:
The Horned Frogs offense rushes for 3.7 yards per carry at home. The defense has been poor at home as they allow 226 yards rushing for 4.7 yards a carry along with 8 yards per pass attempt. Oklahoma St has defended poorly on the road. But offensively they rush for 4.4 yards a carry and passed for 327 yards per game for 8.2 yards per pass attempt. TCU is 1-3 to the spread as a home favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. Play Oklahoma St +11.5.
The Pick with the Explanation
Maryland vs. Oregon College Football Pick Prediction 11/9/2024
Maryland at Oregon 7PM ET—Maryland fell to 4-4 following their 48-23 road defeat to Minnesota. The Terrapins gained 427 yards with 104 rushing for 4 yards per run. On defense they allowed 443 yards to the Golden Gophers with 320 passing on 34 attempts. Billy Edwards completed 19 of 35 for 201 yards and two picks. He rushed for a touchdown. Oregon is 9-0 with their 38-17 road win at Michigan. The Ducks posted 470 yards with 176 rushing for 4.8 yards a carry. On defense they held the Wolverines to 270 yards with 105 rushing for 3.8 yards a carry. Dillon Gabriel hit 22 of 34 for 294 yards with a touchdown. He rushed for 23 yards and a touchdown.
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Maryland has struggled on the ground running the football in the Big Ten as they rush for 3.7 yards a carry but an efficient passing game. Their defense allows 34 points per game on the road as they allow 309 yards passing for 8.9 yards per pass attempt. Oregon in Big Ten play is putting up 35 points per game with 4.9 yards per run and 70% completions for 9 yards per pass attempt. In their past three games the Ducks defense has allowed 8.7 points per game with 49.4% completions. Maryland is 1-4 to the spread on the road against teams that average 31 points per game or greater. The Ducks are 4-1 to the spread when favored at home by 21.5 to 31 points. Play Oregon -24.5.
The Pick with the Explanation
Mississippi St vs. Tennessee College Football Pick Prediction 11/9/2024
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Mississippi St at Tennessee 7PM ET—Mississippi St sits at 2-7 following their 45-20 home victory to UMASS. The Bulldogs gained 463 yards with 241 rushing for 8 yards per carry. On defense they allowed 335 yards to the Minutemen with 136 passing on 29 attempts. Michael Van Buren completed 14 of 25 for 222 yards and a touchdown. He rushed for two touchdowns. Tennessee improved to 7-1 with their 28-18 home victory to Kentucky. The Volunteers put up 478 yards with 185 rushing for 4.2 yards per rush. On defense they allowed 360 yards to the Wildcats with 168 rushing for 4.5 yards per carry. Nico Iamaleava hit 28 of 38 for 292 yards with a touchdown.
The Pick with the Explanation
Mississippi St against the SEC has been able to move the football through the air with 248 yards per game and 7.5 yards per pass attempt. The defense has been poor in conference. Tennessee in SEC play rush for four yards a carry with 62% completions. Defensively they allow conference foes to 6.8 yards per pass attempt with stout run defense. The Volunteers failed to cover three of four. Mississippi St has covered four of five. Play Mississippi St +24.
Florida St vs. Notre Dame College Football Pick Prediction 11/9/2024
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Florida St at Notre Dame 7:30PM ET—Florida St sits at 1-8 following their 35-11 home defeat to North Carolina. The Seminoles gained 201 yards with 42 rushing for 1.5 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 500 yards to the Tar Heels with 289 rushing for 5.3 yards a carry. Brock Glenn completed 6 of 11 for 123 yards with a touchdown. Notre Dame moves to 7-1 with their 51-14 road victory at Navy. The Fighting Irish gained 466 yards with 265 rushing for 6.6 yards a carry. Riley Leonard hit 13 of 21 for 178 yards with two touchdowns. He rushed for 83 yards and a touchdown.
The Pick with the Explanation
Florida St as offensive struggles in their road games particularly with inaccurate and inefficient quarterback play. Defensively they allow 4.6 yards per run on the highway with 62.4% completions. Notre Dame run game has been good at home with 5.6 yards per run. They have held teams at home to 12.5 points per game with only 50% completions for 5.8 yards per pass attempt. The Seminoles are 11-6 to the under on the road. Play Florida St and Notre Dame under 42.5.
Alabama vs. LSU College Football Pick Prediction 11/9/2024
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Alabama at LSU 7:45PM ET—Alabama improved to 6-2 following their 34-0 home victory to Missouri. The Crimson Tide gained 486 yards with 271 rushing for 7.3 yards per run. On defense they held the Tigers to 239 yards with 72 passing yards on 24 attempts. Jalen Milroe completed 16 of 26 for 215 yards. He rushed for 50 yards and a touchdown. LSU moves to 6-2 with their 38-23 road defeat to Texas A&M. The Tigers put up 429 yards with 24 rushing on 23 carries. On defense they allowed 376 yards to the Aggies with 242 rushing for 4.9 yards per run. Garrett Nussmeier went 25 of 50 for 405 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions.
The Pick with the Explanation
LSU has home win to Ole Miss. The Tigers against the SEC are passing for 316 yards with 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The rushing numbers have been better at home as is the defense. Alabama pass defense on the road allows 240 yards with 7.7 yards per pass attempt. They rushed for only 3.8 yards a carry on the road. Alabama is 5-8 to the spread as a road favorite. The Tigers are 4-1 to the spread as a home underdog. Play LSU +3.
Oklahoma vs. Missouri College Football Pick Prediction 11/9/2024
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Oklahoma at Missouri—Oklahoma improved to 5-4 following their 59-14 home win to FCS Maine. Two weeks ago, it was a 26-14 road defeat at Ole Miss. The Sooners gained 329 yards with 147 rushing for 2.9 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 380 yards to the Rebels with 311 passing on 30 attempts. Jackson Arnold completed 15 of 21 for 224 yards with two touchdowns. He rushed for 45 yards and a touchdown. The Sooners have two running backs, and a slew of receivers banged up. Missouri drops to 6-0 with their 34-0 road defeat at Alabama. The Tigers put up 239 yards with 167 rushing for 4.3 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 486 yards to the Crimson Tide with 271 rushing for 7.3 yards a carry. Brady Cook hit 7 of 12 for 30 yards. He is questionable with a hand injury. Drew Pyne in relief went 6 of 12 for 42 yards and three picks.
The Pick with the Explanation
Oklahoma against the SEC offensive has struggled with 2.3 yards per run and inaccurate and inefficient quarterback play. The Sooner’s defense is getting torched against the pass in the SEC by allowing 67% completions for 8.9 yards per pass attempt. It is worse on the road. Missouri has defended well at home by allowing 2.9 yards a carry with 52.2% completions. The passing game and running game work better for the Tigers at home. Play Missouri +3.
Virginia vs. Pittsburgh College Football Pick Prediction 11/9/2024
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Virginia at Pittsburgh 8PM ET—Virginia fell to 4-4 with their 41-14 home defeat to North Carolina. The Cavaliers gained 288 yards with seven rushing yards on 29 carries. On defense they allowed 427 yards to the Tar Heels with 293 passing on 31 attempts. Anthony Colandrea completed 16 of 28 for 156 yards and two interceptions. Pittsburgh fell to 7-1 following their 48-25 road defeat at SMU. The Panthers put up 453 yards with 103 rushing for 3.2 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 467 yards to the Mustangs with 306 passing on 31 attempts. Eli Holstein went 29 of 47 for 248 yards and a pick.
The Pick with the Explanation
Virginia on the road put up 35 points per game behind 4.6 yards per run and effective passing. Their defense surrendered 34 points per game by allowing 350 passing yards on the road for 9.3 yards per pass attempt. Pittsburgh in conference play has thrown for 252 yards for 6.7 yards per pass attempt. They have defended well against the ACC by allowing 2.7 yards per run with 58.8% completions. But Virginia is 7-1 to the spread on the road in conference. Pittsburgh is 2-4 to the spread at home when favored by -3.5 to -10 points Play Virginia +7.5.
Nevada vs. Boise St College Football Pick Prediction 11/9/2024
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Nevada at Boise St 8PM ET—Nevada drops to 3-7 following their 38-21 home defeat to Colorado St. The Wolf Pack gained 441 yards with 189 rushing for 5 yards per carry. On defense they allowed 327 yards to the Rams with 170 rushing for 4.7 yards per run. Brendon Lewis completed 20 of 28 passes for 252 yards with a touchdown. He rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns. Boise St improved to 7-1 with their 56-24 home victory to San Diego St. The Broncos posted 541 yards with 219 rushing for 4.8 yards per run. Defensively they allowed 256 yards to the Aztecs with 101 rushing for 3.9 yards per run. Maddux Madsen hit 24 of 32 for 307 yards with four touchdowns.
The Pick with the Explanation
In their past three games the Broncos are putting up 38 points per game with 5 yards per run and 8.1 yards per pass attempt for a total of 462 yards. Defensively in this period they are allowing 199 yards passing for 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Nevada in this period are throwing 250 yards for 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Defensively in their past three games the Wolf Pack 59% completion rate. Nevada has covered two of their prior three meetings. The Wolf Pack are 4-1 to the spread on the road against winning teams. Lewis mobility is the key here. Play Nevada +25.
Washington vs. Penn St College Football Pick Prediction 11/9/2024
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Washington at Penn St 8PM ET—Washington improved to 5-4 following their 26-21 home victory to USC. The Huskies gained 375 yards with 113 rushing for 3.9 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 459 yards to the Trojans with 166 rushing for 5.7 yards a carry. Will Rogers completed 25 of 39 for 262 yards. Penn St fell to 7-1 with their 20-13 home defeat to Ohio St. The Nittany Lions put up 270 yards with 120 rushing for 3.8 yards a carry. Defensively they surrendered 358 yards to the Buckeyes with 182 passing on 24 attempts. Drew Allar was 12 of 20 for 146 yards and an interception.
The Pick with the Explanation
The Huskies against the Big Ten have run for 4.3 yards a carry and getting productive work at quarterback with 69% completions with 7.4 yards per pass attempt. They hold Big Ten teams to 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Penn St rushes for 4.3 yards a carry against the conference. They are putting up only 24.4 points per game against the Big Ten. Play Washington +13.5.
UNLV vs. Hawaii College Football Pick Prediction 11/9/2024
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UNLV at Hawaii 9PM ET—UNLV drops to 6-2 following their 29-24 home defeat to Boise St. The Rebels gained 367 yards with 188 rushing for 5.2 yards per run. On defense they allowed 394 yards to the Broncos with 185 rushing for 4.6 yards per run. Hajj Malik Williams completed 12 of 21 for 179 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He rushed for 105 yards and a touchdown. Hawaii improved to 4-5 with their 21-20 road win at Fresno St. The Warriors posted 346 yards with 102 rushing for 2.8 yards per run. Defensively they held the Bulldogs to 176 yards with 19 rushing yards on 21 carries. Brayden Schager hit 29 of 53 for 244 yards with three touchdowns and a pick.
The Pick with the Explanation
Hawaii defense in their past three games is allowing 25 points per game with 2.7 yards per run. Offensively they are rushing for 4.5 yards a carry. UNLV defense in this span is allowing 449 yards with 29 points per game. Their offensive numbers in this period have been good. They are 1-3 to the spread on the road after a home loss. That loss most likely cost the Rebels a playoff berth. Hawaii is 11-6 to the spread at home. They must win three of four to become bowl eligible at 7-6. Play Hawaii +13.
Fresno St vs. Air Force College Football Pick Prediction 11/9/2024
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Fresno St at Air Force 9:45PM ET—Fresno St fell to 5-4 with their 21-20 home defeat to Hawaii. The Bulldogs put up 276 yards with 19 rushing on 21 carries. On defense they allowed 346 yards to the Warriors with 102 rushing for 2.8 yards per run. Mikey Keene completed 25 of 31 for 157 yards and a touchdown. Air Force drops to 1-7 after their 20-3 road defeat at Army. The Falcons gained 209 yards with 117 rushing for 2.9 yards per run. Defensively they allowed 255 yards to the Black Knights with 207 rushing for 4.8 yards per run. Quentin Hayes completed 7 of 14 passes for 54 yards and a pick. He rushed for 61 yards.
The Pick with the Explanation
Fresno St against the conference is completing 67% of their passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt. The run game has struggled. The Bulldogs are giving up 33 points per game on the road as they surrender 4.5 yards per carry with 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Air Force has put up 19 points per game in the conference. But the Falcons defense is allowing 30 points against the MWC as they allow 4.6 yards per run with 8.6 yards per pass attempt. Keene has put up good numbers for the Bulldogs this year at quarterback. Fresno St is 9-3 to the over on the road against the Mountain West. Play Fresno St and Air Force over 40.5.
BYU vs. Utah College Football Pick Prediction 11/9/2024
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BYU at Utah 10:15PM ET—BYU improved to 8-0 after their 37-24 road win at UCF. The Cougars put up 480 yards with 252 rushing for 4.9 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 379 yards to the Knights with 181 rushing for 6.2 yards per run. Jake Retzlaff completed 16 of 24 for 228 yards and two touchdowns. He rushed for 38 yards and a touchdown. Utah fell to 4-4 with their 17-14 road defeat to Houston. The Utes posted 306 yards with 90 rushing for 3.5 yards per run. Defensively they allowed 289 yards to the Cougars with 228 rushing for 4.6 yards per run. Issac Wilson went 13 of 22 for 171 yards and a touchdown.
The Pick with the Explanation
BYU against the conference is rushing for 5.1 yards a carry and passing for 7.7 yards per pass attempt. The Cougars are strong pass defenders against the Big 12 by surrendering 5.1 yards per run. At home the Utes have rushed for four yards a carry and averaged 7.6 yards per pass attempt. They defend the run at home and limit opposing quarterbacks to 50.9% completions. BYU run defense has been worse the past three games by allowing 5.8 yards a carry. The Utes are 10-7 to the spread at home. Play Utah +3.
Utah St vs. Washington St College Football Pick Prediction 11/9/2024
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Utah St at Washington St 10:30PM ET—Utah St improved to 2-6 following their 27-25 road win at Wyoming. The Aggies put up 378 yards with 148 rushing for 4.9 yards a carry. On defense they allowed 470 yards to the Cowboys with 276 rushing for 6.6 yards a carry. Spencer Petras completed 25 of 39 for 194 yards and two touchdowns. Washington St sits at 7-1 after their 29-26 road win at San Diego St. The Cougars posted 371 yards with 114 rushing for 2.9 yards a carry. Defensively they allowed 414 yards to the Aztecs with 284 passing on 41 attempts. John Mateer went 19 of 27 for 257 yards with two touchdowns. He rushed for 42 yards and two touchdowns.
The Pick with the Explanation
Utah St on the road is allowing 45 points per game with 6.3 yards per rush and 68% completion rate. They average 6.5 yards per pass attempt on the road. Washington St at home is putting up 51 points per game behind 5.6 yards per run with 310 yards passing for 10.5 yards per pass attempt. Utah St is 3-13 to the spread on the road. The Cougars are 3-1 to the spread at home facing bad defensive teams that allow 5.9 yards per play or greater. Play Washington St -20.5.