NCAA Football Week 10 Review
Two teams from the Big Ten Conference continue to be the best schools Against The Spread (ATS) this 2024 College Football season, while the worst team against the betting number is a new Big 12 member who played in the Pac-12 last season. Looking at SU results after Week 10, Favorites are now 479-147 (76.5%) while Home teams are 413-213 (66%). In the category bettors care about, Favorites are 298-316-12 ATS (48.5%), with Away Favorites 88-91-5 ATS (49.2%) and Home Favorites 210-225-7 (48.3%). In the Totals market, Overs are 299-295 in non-OT games (49.7%) with the Over 17-6 when FBS games have had to go to OT (73.9%). Overall, Overs are 316-301 (51.2%).
Impressive Indiana Best Team Against Betting Number
Indiana (9-0 SU, 6-0 in Big Ten) kept its perfect season, College Football Playoff (CFP) hopes and top ATS record in the land intact after a 47-10 win at Michigan State in Week 10 in a game which saw the No. 13 Hoosiers rally from a 10-0 1st Quarter deficit to rout the Spartans in East Lansing. After losing ATS to FIU in Week 1 in a 31-7 win (IU -26), the Hoosiers have now reeled off eight straight wins against the point spread and have been the best college football team in FBS to wager on, and just three points from a perfect 9-0-0 ATS mark.
Best FBS Teams ATS
- Indiana 8-1-0 (88.9%)
- Minnesota 7-1-1 (87.5%)
- BYU 7-1-0 (87.5%)
- Army 6-1-1 (83.7%)
- Eastern Michigan 7-2 (77.8%)
- Tulane 7-2 (77.8%)
- Vanderbilt 7-2 (77.8%)
Arizona Surprisingly the Worst FBS Team ATS
Arizona (3-6 SU, 1-5 in Big 12) moved to the Big 12 from the Pac-12 this season, and despite having a great QB and WR, the Wildcats have had a disappointing season on the field and in the sportsbooks. After falling to UCF, 56-12 on Saturday, Arizona has now lost five straight games and the Wildcats losing all five ATS. The only time Zona has got the butter this season came against Utah in a 23-10 upset in a game which saw the Wildcats head in as 7.5-point underdogs. Here are the worst performing teams ATS as we head toward Week 11 in this rapidly moving 2024 NCAA Division I FBS season.
Worst FBS Teams ATS
- Arizona 1-8 (11.11%)
- Air Force Academy 1-7 (12.5%)
- Liberty 1-6 (14.3%)
- Georgia Southern 1-5-2 (16.7%)
- Michigan 2-7 (22.2%)
- TCU 2-7 (22.2%)
Surprise, Surprise, Surprise! Iowa Best Over Team
Last season, Iowa was a dead Under team going 2-12 (O/U) for a 14.3% clip, the worst Over team in the nation with Unders cashing in 85.7% of Hawkeyes games. This year? Iowa is amazingly the best Over team in the FBS, with an 8-1 O/U record after playing their fourth straight Over in a 42-10 win over Wisconsin in a Big Ten game which saw Iowa go over the Total themselves (40.5). Here are the best Over teams right now.
Best FBS Over Teams
- Iowa 8-1-0 (88.9%)
- Maryland 7-1-0 (87.5%)
- Ball State 7-1-0 (87.5%)
- North Texas 7-1-0 (87.5%)
- Navy 7-1-0 (87.5%)
- Miami (Fla) 7-1-1 (87.5%)
Scuffling Florida State, Houston the Best Under Teams
Florida State was 8-6 to the Totals last season while Houston went 5-7, so with just one Over win each this time around, the Seminoles and Cougars find themselves as the best Under teams after Week 10 play. The only Over FSU has played came against SMU in Week 5 in a 42-16 loss (46.5) while the only Over bet Houston has cashed was at Kansas in a 42-14 loss (45). Here are the best Under teams in college football.
Best FBS Under Teams
- Florida State 8-1-0 (88.9%)
- Houston 8-1-0 (88.9%)
- Utah 7-1-0 (87.5%)
- Illinois 7-2-0 (77.8%)
- Hawai’i 7-2-0 (77.8%)
- Ole Miss 7-2-0 (77.8%)
- Washington 7-2-0 (77.8%)
NCAAF Week 11 Prediction and ATS Pick
Indiana (7-2 Over) has to be the most improved team in FBS this season, and in Week 11, the Hoosiers have been installed as big 14-point favorites at Home in Bloomington against Michigan, who has fallen as much as IU has risen. In Week 10, the Hoosiers saw starting QB Kurtis Rourke return from right thumb surgery and he had a solid game, throwing for four TDs, two to Elijah Sarratt, as IU rallied to score 47 straight points at Michigan State and cover ATS and stay in the CFP race. It was the ninth straight double-digit win for Amare Ferrell (2 rushing TDs) and the red-hot Hoosiers. Last year Michigan—the defending national champions—stomped a mud hole in Indiana, 52-7 in Ann Arbor, so expect the Hoosiers to exact some revenge on Saturday. Your free NCAAF pick and Michigan vs Indiana prediction is for the Hoosiers to win by 17 to 20 under Partly Cloudy skies and nice 63° temperatures in Bloomington. Lux et Veritas.