What’s up, guys! Mills Young here, part of Tony’s Picks, and we’re about to go over the fights that finished and the fights going the distance. Okay, now look, if you guys want to see my exclusive picks—my premium picks—this is what you need to do. Make sure you hit the link below and sign up, because I’m hitting the books all over the head this week! Last week we killed it; we went 10 and 3. I mean, we hit all our predictions on all our premium picks. So let’s go ahead and rotate the same type of energy for this week. Man, we got some good fights to talk about. It’s going down in Edmonton, Canada.
Happy Halloween: Expect a Spooky, Scary Fight Night
Happy Halloween! It’s going to be spooky, it’s going to be scary. The reason why is cuz a lot of these fights don’t have big names and there aren’t a lot of good odds that you guys can back and feel good about. But look, if we’re going to do one thing, we’re definitely going to put you on some winners here and give you guys my predictions on which fights to play that are going to finish and which ones we think are going the distance.
Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Ivana Petrovic
Alright, the first fight of the night, let’s get it started. We got Jamey-Lyn Horth stepping up in this one, taking on Ivana Petrovic. Jamey-Lyn Horth is like a -210 favorite; they got the fight over 2.5 rounds at -445 and the fight going the distance, real chalky at -400. The reason why is cuz women’s fights—it’s hard for women to get finishes inside the cage. So, with this one, I definitely think the fight’s going the distance. The underdog took a year and some change off, and Ivana Petrovic might have some more stuff to add to her game. But fighting in Canada, I think this is going to be a spot for Jamey-Lyn Horth to get the win, and I think the fight goes the distance in that one.
Chad Anheliger vs. Cody Gibson
Next fight, Chad Anheliger taking on Cody Gibson. Chad Anheliger, big underdog representing Canada, Cody Gibson at -185 on the books. The over 2.5 is at -220, and the under 2.5 is at around +160 to +170. Alright, so let’s talk about Gibson in this spot. Gibson’s coming off a win against Brian Kelleher, which isn’t really something to hang your hat on because Kelleher’s been finished more times than anybody lately. Chad Anheliger, though, he’s a good underdog where if you let your foot off the gas for a minute, he’s going to go out there and push that cardio and that pace. He’s coming off a win against Gorgus in his last fight. In this one, I do see the fight going over 2.5 rounds, as long as Gibson doesn’t get the submission early on. I think this one is going to the scorecards, I think this one is gonna go the distance and I like Cody Gibson in that one.
Serhiy Sidey vs. Garrett Armfield
Next fight taking place: Serhiy Sidey taking on Garrett Armfield. Serhiy Sidey, slight favorite at -140, Garrett Armfield the comeback on him at +120. The over 2.5 is at -188, and the under 2.5 at +145. Folks, I think we got it right here—I like the over 2.5 in this one. Garrett Armfield is a guy that’s going to give you a fight on your feet; he’s going to give you counter strikes, and he might mix in a takedown since Serhiy Sidey might struggle with that. Serhiy Sidey is a guy that’s going to come forward, he’s going to push the pace, coming off a loss his last time fighting. Fighting in his backyard in Canada, and Garrett Armfield last time he was in Canada, he got the win. To be honest, man, I like the dog in this one and I like the over 2.5 in that one.
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Alexandr Romanov vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
Next fight, Alexandr Romanov taking on Rodrigo Nascimento. The over 1.5 is at -200, and the under 1.5 is at +154. It’s a pick ‘em on both sides. You got a heavy grappler in Romanov, and then a striker in Nascimento. To be honest, this fight could go either way. I like Romanov, but the over 1.5 at -200 is a little tricky cuz Romanov can get you down on the ground and Nascimento might not have an answer for that. So I lean towards the under. Yeah, give me the under 1.5 at plus money, +154. I like the fight not going the distance, but my pick is Alexandr Romanov.
Jack Shore vs. Youssef Zalal
Next fight taking place: Jack Shore taking on Youssef Zalal. Zalal is a big favorite at -300. They got the over 2.5 at -290, and the under 2.5 at +220. Zalal has been finishing opponents lately. He used to always go to decision, but he’s on a war path. Jack Shore has been on the short end of the stick, stepping up in a new weight class, but he hasn’t acclimated to it yet. I love Youssef Zalal in this spot. I think he’s a solid parlay piece. This one is a bit tricky since Zalal has been finishing his opponents, so let’s go ahead and take the fight not going the distance and Zalal to win inside the distance—that’s a good plus money price too.
Charles Jourdain vs. Victor Henry
Next fight, Charles Jourdain taking on Victor Henry. Jourdain, the Canadian fighter, is at -140. Both are talented strikers, and it’s going to be a battle in the ring. They’ll probably throw about 80 to 100 strikes, and whoever comes out better will avoid more damage and mix in a few more techniques. Jourdain loves flying knees and all that, while Henry fought some great opponents. I like Victor Henry in this spot, and I like this fight going the distance.
Ariane da Silva vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
Next fight taking place, we got Ariane da Silva taking on Jasmine Jasudavicius. Jasudavicius is a -230 favorite on the books, and as a Canadian fighter, she’s going to have her crowd behind her in this one. They have the over 2.5 rounds set at -290, which makes sense because women’s fights typically go the distance, and this fight feels like it’s heading in that direction. If there’s any chance for a finish, it would be from Ariane da Silva, as Jasmine generally goes to decision in a lot of her fights. She’s a big specimen for this division, with her height and reach giving fighters problems, and she’s aggressive, man—relentless with those takedowns.
So, for this fight, give me Jasmine Jasudavicius to win by decision. This fight is one where Ariane da Silva is a live dog, though, and I think the odds are a bit off. Personally, I think Jasmine should be priced around -160 to -170, not as high as -230. Still, I do like Jasudavicius in this fight.
Aiemann Zahabi vs. Pedro Munhoz
Alright, the next fight on the card is Aiemann Zahabi taking on Pedro Munhoz. Now, this line has flipped a few times, going back and forth, and currently, I think Zahabi is sitting as the favorite. The over 2.5 rounds is juiced to the gills at -475, and there’s a reason for that. Pedro Munhoz’s fights almost always go the distance, and Zahabi’s fights usually do too, aside from a recent knockout. In this fight, I’m expecting it to go the distance. This is really a veteran versus a tough competitor, but not exactly an up-and-comer—just another solid fighter in the division like Zahabi.
Yeah, man, give me Zahabi to edge this one out by decision.
Mike Malott vs. Trevin Giles
Moving on, we got Mike Malott taking on Trevin Giles. Malott is a pretty big favorite here at -285 on the books. The over 1.5 rounds is set at -150, while the under 1.5 rounds is at +120. Let’s break this down a bit. Malott is a guy who usually finishes his opponents early and quick, but last time, he wasn’t able to do that, and he ended up getting finished himself in the third round against Neil Magny. Now, that’s important because it might make him slow down a little bit and pace himself better this time. He now knows he can’t go all out in those first two rounds, because if he doesn’t get the finish, he might end up needing to go the distance.
Trevin Giles is a tough veteran, man. I’m just a little reluctant to bet on Mike Malott at this price because of the opponent. Trevin Giles can be live in there sometimes, and he’s someone who can surprise you. But I think Mike Malott ultimately wins inside the distance here. I also think it goes over the 1.5 rounds. So yeah, let’s go with the over 1.5 and that this fight does not go the distance.
Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Next fight, Marc-Andre Barriault is taking on Dustin Stoltzfus. Barriault is a -190 favorite on the books, with Stoltzfus coming in as a +170 underdog. The over 2.5 rounds is at -140, while the under 2.5 rounds is at +114. Marc-Andre Barriault is a fighter who can get finished, and Stoltzfus got finished in his last fight against Bruno Ferreira. This fight feels like it’s going to be a close contest, and I think it’s heading to the scorecards. I won’t spend too much time on this one; I do think the over 2.5 rounds is the play, and I think this fight goes the distance.
Caio Machado vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Alright, we got Caio Machado taking on Brendson Ribeiro. Machado is listed as the -140 favorite, with Ribeiro at +124. The over 1.5 rounds is set at -175, and the under at +135. This is a matchup of two fighters with very different styles. Ribeiro’s fights usually don’t go the distance—he’s looking for a finish right from the start. Meanwhile, Machado is a guy who likes to stay on his bike, keep the pace steady, and make it a drawn-out fight. In this one, I think Machado can take it slow and go for the decision win.
As long as Ribeiro doesn’t catch him early, Machado can keep that steady pace and make it a little boring to edge out a win by decision. I like the over 1.5 rounds here as long as Ribeiro doesn’t land something big in the first round.
Derrick Lewis vs. Jhonata Diniz
Now, everybody knows Derrick Lewis, aka “The Black Beast,” and he’s stepping into the cage as a +145 underdog in this one. He’s facing Jhonata Diniz, who’s undefeated and is a very talented kickboxer. Diniz is taking on a heavy hitter in Derrick Lewis. The over 1.5 rounds is at +100, with the under 1.5 rounds at -130. For this fight, give me the under. I don’t think this one’s going the distance, and I definitely like the under.
These guys aren’t likely to stay standing for too long without somebody going down. They’re both talented strikers, so I’m expecting a finish early on. For me, the safest bet is under 2.5 rounds, but for the purpose of this pick, we’ll go with the under 1.5. You can get that at -130 at a lot of books out there. Check out DraftKings, FanDuel, MyBookie, or Bovada—shop around for the best line. And yeah, in this one, give me The Black Beast by KO. Normally, I don’t pick Derrick Lewis, but it’s Halloween, it’s spooky, it’s scary, and I’m doing something different. So give me The Black Beast to win by KO.
Co-Main Event: Erin Blanchfield vs. Rose Namajunas
Alright, co-main event time. We got Erin Blanchfield taking on Rose Namajunas. This is a great fight, guys, and the over 4.5 rounds is at -280, while the under 4.5 rounds is at +210. They’ve got Erin Blanchfield as a slight favorite at -130. I’ve been going back and forth on this fight all week. I started off leaning towards Erin Blanchfield because she’s someone I’ve liked betting on in the past, and I’ve only lost with her once. But as the week has gone on, I’m leaning more towards Rose. I just think she’s going to have too good of footwork for Blanchfield. And if Blanchfield, as we’ve seen, can’t get those takedowns, she’s just not the same fighter.
Rose Namajunas is one of the best female fighters out there, so yeah, it pains me to say it, but I think Rose wins this one, and I’m picking the fight to go the distance.
Main Event: Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi
Alright, main event time! Everybody smash that like button for me. If you want to get my bets, here’s what you need to do: hit us up at Tony’s Picks right here. I got my three-day pass where I’m putting my picks in a three-package deal for you guys. Last week, we cleared the board, and we’ve been doing our thing in MMA. So if you want my exclusive three-pick package, you know what to do. This is exactly what I’m betting on, giving you my exclusive insights.
Now, for the main event, we got Brandon Moreno stepping back in the cage, taking on Amir Albazi. Brandon Moreno is at -170 on the books. The over 4.5 rounds is at -230, so they’re expecting this fight to go the distance when you see numbers and odds like that. Brandon Moreno is someone who can go five rounds, but can Amir Albazi? We don’t know. He’s coming off a neck surgery and hasn’t fought in the cage in a year. Early on, I was leaning towards Albazi when I first heard about this fight, but as the week went on, I started thinking differently.
Albazi hasn’t been training in the cage and is coming off a big neck surgery. It’s not just a minor injury—this is a serious procedure that can set back everything. You don’t know how the body will react when you take that first big hit or get into certain positions. So yeah, give me Brandon Moreno in this one, and I think this fight does not go the distance.
Distance Parlay
Alright, so here’s my distance parlay—these are the fights I think aren’t going the distance:
Derrick Lewis vs. Jhonata Diniz
Trevin Giles vs. Mike Malott
Alexandr Romanov vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
Parlay all three of those, meet me at the window, and let’s get paid! MMA Locker Room here wishing you a Happy Halloween. Trick or treat, or let’s just win these bets so we can get something to eat!