Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots 12/17/23

Buccaneers vs Chiefs Prediction 11/4/24 NFL Week 9 Picks

Buccaneers vs Chiefs 11/4/24 Game Information

When:  Monday, November 4, 2024 at 8:15 ET/5:15 PT
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (NorthBridge Bermudagrass) 
Buccaneers vs Chiefs Line: Chiefs -8.5
Total: 45.5
TV: ABC, ESPN

Buccaneers vs Chiefs Monday Night Football Preview

The two-time defending Super Bowl champion and undefeated Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) welcome the injury-plagued Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) to Arrowhead Stadium (NorthBridge Bermuda grass) for this Monday Night Football matchup much more important for the road team. This NFL Week 9 swan song will see if Patrick Mahomes (Interception 8 straight games) can set a new franchise record with a 14th straight win for the Chiefs after beating the Raiders in Week 8, or if Baker Mayfield can pull off the big upset with his two best WRs (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin) injured. With the AFC West a dominating 7-1 vs the NFC South this season, the Swashbucklers will have their work cut out for them.

Hobbled Buccaneers Need to Establish a Better Rushing Attack

The Buccaneers need to improve several facets of their game if they want to knock off the league’s last unbeaten team and stay above the .500 mark. First off, Tampa Bay needs to take better care of the football. In their 31-26 home loss to Atlanta in Week 8, the Bucs had three turnovers and forced none in a one-score game. A week earlier in its loss to the Ravens, the Bucs had two turnovers and created only one, so that’s a -4 TO differential in two games where they actually amassed a lot of Total Yards (913 yards). And with Evans and Godwin, Tampa Bay also needs to develop a stronger rushing attack. Against the Falcons, the Bucs only ran for 102 yards and their leading rusher Bucky Irving only had 44. For perspective, San Francisco QB Brock Purdy had 56 rushing yards vs the Cowboys on Sunday night.

Buccaneers Betting Trends

  • Tampa Bay is 2-1 SU on the Road season 
  • The Buccaneers are 3-3 at Arrowhead and have won the last two meetings
  • There have been 5 straight Overs in Tampa Bay games
  • Mayfield has thrown for 325+ yards in his last 3 games, and 4 of the last 5
  • The road team has covered the spread in the last 3 Buccaneers games

Chiefs Will be Better With New WR Hopkins on Offense, Kelce Finding His Form   

With an extra day to scheme new WR DeAndre Hopkins into the Chiefs offense, Head Coach Andy Reid will do precisely that with Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster both injured. Against the Raiders in a franchise-tying win here in Sin City, Hopkins was only targeted three times and had just two catches for 16 yards. Expect the new kid in town to be targeted 6-8 times here against a Bucs defense which ranks No. 29 (254.0 ypg) and has allowed 26.0 ppg (#28), and 72 points in the last two games. And no defense has been stronger the last three games than the Chiefs (13.7 ppg), so expect a couple Mayfield picks and maybe a defensive score for the homeboys. One good thing for Kansas City last weekend was Travis Kelce catching 10 passes for 90 yards and a TD (on Tight Ends Day of course!) after the TE has struggled to start off the season.

Chiefs Betting Trends

  • Chiefs are 34-21 SU on Monday Night Football
  • Patrick Mahomes has an 80-22 record as a starting QB
  • Kansas City has gone 20-2 SU in its last 22 games vs. the NFC
  • Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in the Second Half spread, losing only at the Raiders
  • Patrick Mahomes is 23-27-3 ATS as an underdog of 7 or more points

Look For a Sixth Straight Over the Total in Bucs Games 

Tampa Bay is 6-2 to the over and has put up almost 1,000 Total Yards in its last two games—both losses—so I like the Total to go Over in this prime time spot for your free NFL pick and Buccaneers vs Chiefs prediction with a friendly playing surface and nice fall weather and two QBs who can and like to pass the pigskin. The Chiefs (3-4 O/U) haven’t scored more than 28 points in a game this season, but look for them to break out of that mold here and score between 34 and 37 against a Bucs team that will likely be behind early and feel the need to pass, pass, pass and which should have around 14 to 17 points of their own. The last time these two played saw the Chiefs win 41-31 in Tampa in a game that went over the closing total (46) by 25 points.

Kevin’s Pick: Over 45.5